The DOI matches its Crossref record; 36 of the 37 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Net-zero aviation: Transition barriers and radical climate policy design implications
Open accessAbstract
While air transport decarbonization is theoretically feasible, less attention has been paid to the complexity incurred in various ‘transition barriers’ that act as roadblocks to net-zero goals. A total of 40 barriers related to mitigation, management, technology and fuel transition, finance, and governance are identified. As these make decarbonization uncertain, the paper analyzes air transport system's growth, revenue, and profitability. Over the period 1978–2022, global aviation has generated marginal profits of US$20200.94 per passenger, or US$202082 billion in total. Low profitability makes it unlikely that the sector can finance the fuel transition cost, at US$0.5–2.1 trillion (Dray et al. 2022). Four radical policy scenarios for air transport futures are developed. All are characterized by “limitations”, such as CO2 taxes, a carbon budget, alternative fuel obligations, or available capacity. Scenario runs suggest that all policy scenarios will more reliably lead to net-zero than the continued volume growth model pursued by airlines.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Historically, average passenger load factors rose from 63.2% in 1980 to 82.4% in 2019.
“Historically, average passenger load factors have seen an upward trend, from 63.2% in 1980 to 82.4% in 2019”
From Large carbon dioxide emissions avoidance potential in improved commercial air transport efficiency (2026) · cites this paper as [25]
Emissions per revenue passenger kilometre fell from 280 g CO2 per RPK to 90 g CO2 per RPK.
“while emissions per RPK fell from 280 g CO₂ per RPK to 90 g CO₂ per RPK25.”
From Large carbon dioxide emissions avoidance potential in improved commercial air transport efficiency (2026) · cites this paper as [25]
Global passenger load factors have generally increased over time, but have yet to surpass the 85% threshold.
“Global passenger load factors have generally increased over time, but have yet to surpass the 85% threshold25.”
From Large carbon dioxide emissions avoidance potential in improved commercial air transport efficiency (2026) · cites this paper as [25]
Citations
Cites
The Jackknife and the Bootstrap for General Stationary Observations
Künsch, H. R. (1989) · The Annals of Statistics · doi:10.1214/aos/1176347265 · Cited by 2,454
The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018
Lee, D. S., Fahey, D. W., Skowron, A., Allen, M. R., Burkhardt, U., Chen, Q., Doherty, S. J., Freeman, S., Forster, P. M., Fuglestvedt, J., et al. (2021) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834 · Cited by 1,957
Sociotechnical transitions for deep decarbonization
Geels, F. W., Sovacool, B. K., Schwanen, T., & Sorrell, S. (2017) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aao3760 · Cited by 1,017
Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation
Ueckerdt, F., Bauer, C., Dirnaichner, A., Everall, J., Sacchi, R., & Luderer, G. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01032-7 · Cited by 709
The global scale, distribution and growth of aviation: Implications for climate change
Gößling, S., & Humpe, A. (2020) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102194 · Cited by 679
Self-citationPathways to net-zero emissions from aviation
Bergero, C., Gosnell, G., Gielen, D., Kang, S., Bazilian, M., & Davis, S. J. (2023) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-022-01046-9 · Cited by 430
Exploring the Limits of Bootstrap
Katti, S. K., Ries, L., LePage, R. D., & Billard, L. (1993) · Technometrics · doi:10.2307/1269675 · Cited by 428
Price elasticities of demand for passenger air travel: a meta-analysis
Brons, M., Pels, E. A. J. H., Nijkamp, P. J., & Rietveld, P. (2002) · Journal of Air Transport Management · doi:10.1016/s0969-6997(01)00050-3 · Cited by 372
Grewe, V., Gangoli Rao, A., Grönstedt, T., Xisto, C., Linke, F., Melkert, J., Middel, J., Ohlenforst, B., Blakey, S., Christie, S., et al. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-24091-y · Cited by 325
Bootstrapping time series models
Li, H., & Maddala (1996) · Econometric Reviews · doi:10.1080/07474939608800344 · Cited by 277
Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation
Dray, L., Schäfer, A. W., Grobler, C., Falter, C., Allroggen, F., Stettler, M. E. J., & Barrett, S. R. H. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01485-4 · Cited by 238
Are technology myths stalling aviation climate policy?
Peeters, P., Higham, J. E. S., Kutzner, D., Cohen, S., & Gößling, S. (2016) · Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.trd.2016.02.004 · Cited by 224
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
Lamboll, R., Nicholls, Z., Smith, C. J., Kikstra, J., Byers, E., & Rogelj, J. (2023) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5 · Cited by 210
Sharmina, M., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Wilson, C., Freeman, R., Gernaat, D., Gilbert, P., Bows‐Larkin, A., Littleton, E. W., Traut, M., van Vuuren, D. P., et al. (2020) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430 · Cited by 204
Targeted Use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to Maximize Climate Benefits
Teoh, R., Schumann, U., Voigt, C., Schripp, T., Shapiro, M., Engberg, Z., Molloy, J., Koudis, G., & Stettler, M. E. J. (2022) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.2c05781 · Cited by 169
Pricing carbon in the aviation sector: Evidence from the European emissions trading system
Fageda, X., & Teixido-Figueras, J. J. (2021) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102591 · Cited by 143
How to make climate-neutral aviation fly
Sacchi, R., Becattini, V., Gabrielli, P., Cox, B., Dirnaichner, A., Bauer, C., & Mazzotti, M. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-39749-y · Cited by 138
Air transportation demand forecast through Bagging Holt Winters methods
Dantas, T. M., Oliveira, F. L. C., & Repolho, H. M. (2016) · Journal of Air Transport Management · doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.12.006 · Cited by 134
Estimates of the Climate Response to Aircraft CO2 and NO x Emissions Scenarios
Sausen, R., & Schumann, U. (2000) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1023/a:1005579306109 · Cited by 130
COVID-19 and pathways to low-carbon air transport until 2050
Gößling, S., Humpe, A., Fichert, F., & Creutzig, F. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abe90b · Cited by 118
Self-citationEU Emissions Trading scheme in aviation: Policy analysis and suggestions
Efthymiou, M., & Παπαθεοδώρου, Α. (2019) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.117734 · Cited by 100
Trustworthy or misleading communication of voluntary carbon offsets in the aviation industry
Guix, M., Ollé, C., & Font, X. (2021) · Tourism Management · doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2021.104430 · Cited by 96
Definitions and implications of climate-neutral aviation
Brazzola, N., Patt, A., & Wohland, J. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01404-7 · Cited by 92
Skowron, A., Lee, D. S., León, R. R. D., Lim, L. L., & Owen, B. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-20771-3 · Cited by 89
Boonekamp, T., Zuidberg, J., & Burghouwt, G. (2018) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2018.01.004 · Cited by 81
Implications of preferential access to land and clean energy for Sustainable Aviation Fuels
Becken, S., Mackey, B., & Lee, D. S. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163883 · Cited by 76
Lyle, C. (2018) · Climate Law · doi:10.1163/18786561-00801004 · Cited by 66
A GHG reduction obligation for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in the EU and in Germany
Bullerdiek, N., Neuling, U., & Kaltschmitt, M. (2021) · Journal of Air Transport Management · doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2021.102020 · Cited by 55
Short‐run impact of the flight departure tax on air travel
Falk, M., & Hagsten, E. (2018) · International Journal of Tourism Research · doi:10.1002/jtr.2239 · Cited by 53
Probabilistic assessment of aviation CO2 emission targets
Hassan, M. A., Pfaender, H., & Mavris, D. N. (2018) · Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.trd.2018.06.006 · Cited by 51
Low-carbon scenarios for long-distance travel 2060
Åkerman, J., Kamb, A., Larsson, J., & Nässén, J. (2021) · Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.trd.2021.103010 · Cited by 50
Scheelhaase, J. D., & Maertens, S. U. (2020) · Transportation research procedia · doi:10.1016/j.trpro.2020.11.013 · Cited by 46
Robust eligibility criteria essential for new global scheme to offset aviation emissions
Warnecke, C., Schneider, L., Day, T. J., Theuer, S. L. H., & Fearnehough, H. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0415-y · Cited by 38
Kang, Y., Liao, S., Jiang, C., & D’Alfonso, T. (2022) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2022.05.015 · Cited by 37
Are the current expectations for growing air travel demand realistic?
Becken, S., & Carmignani, F. (2020) · Annals of Tourism Research · doi:10.1016/j.annals.2019.102840 · Cited by 29
Initial Long-Term Scenarios for COVID-19’s Impact on Aviation and Implications for Climate Policy
Dray, L. M., & Schäfer, A. W. (2021) · Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board · doi:10.1177/03611981211045067 · Cited by 21
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 37 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Drivers of global tourism carbon emissions
Sun, Y., Faturay, F., Lenzen, M., Gößling, S., & Higham, J. E. S. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-54582-7 · Cited by 275
Private aviation is making a growing contribution to climate change
Gößling, S., Humpe, A., & Leitão, J. C. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01775-z · Cited by 46
Self-citationThe elephant in the room: Long-haul air services and climate change
Dobruszkes, F., Mattioli, G., & Gozzoli, E. (2024) · Journal of Transport Geography · doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104022 · Cited by 24
Are emissions from global air transport significantly underestimated?
Gößling, S., Humpe, A., & Sun, Y. (2024) · Current Issues in Tourism · doi:10.1080/13683500.2024.2337281 · Cited by 22
Self-citationNational tourism organizations and climate change
Gößling, S., Vogler, R., Humpe, A., & Chen, N. C. (2024) · Tourism Geographies · doi:10.1080/14616688.2024.2332368 · Cited by 22
Self-citationBeyond ambition: a review of tourism climate change declaration outcomes and prospects from Baku
Scott, D. J., & Gößling, S. (2025) · Journal of Sustainable Tourism · doi:10.1080/09669582.2025.2508878 · Cited by 15
Large carbon dioxide emissions avoidance potential in improved commercial air transport efficiency
Gössling, S., Klöwer, M., Leitão, J. C., Hirsch, S., Brockhagen, D., & Humpe, A. (2026) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-03069-4 · Cited by 11
“Global passenger load factors have generally increased over time, but have yet to surpass the 85% threshold 25 .”
InfluentialSelf-citationBelcher, A. C., Workman, M. H. W., Jefferson, A., & Ostrovnaya, A. (2025) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2025.104158 · Cited by 11
Towards quantifying fuel savings in global air transport with fleet upgrades
Wandelt, S., O’Kelly, M. E., & Sun, X. (2025) · Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104811 · Cited by 11
Proposing Oxalic Acid as Chemical Storage of Carbon Dioxide to Achieve Carbon Neutrality
de Souza, E. L. S., Neumann, H., Correia, C. R. D., & Beller, M. (2024) · ChemSusChem · doi:10.1002/cssc.202401199 · Cited by 9
Pominville-Racette, M., Overend, R. P., Achouri, I. E., & Abatzoglou, N. (2025) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en18154156 · Cited by 9
Wandelt, S., Zhang, A., Antoniou, C., Budd, L., Castro‐Nuño, M., Ding, Y., Eliasson, J., Gößling, S., He, S. Y., Ison, S., et al. (2025) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2025.104650 · Cited by 8
Hmamed, H., Cherrafi, A., Shokri, A., Garza‐Reyes, J. A., & Foster, M. (2025) · Business Strategy and the Environment · doi:10.1002/bse.70337 · Cited by 8
Beyond the Rhetoric of “Sustainable Aviation”: A Counterfactual Confrontation
Gößling, S., Hopkins, D., Schweiggart, N., Cohen, S., Cocolas, N., & Higham, J. E. S. (2026) · Journal of Travel Research · doi:10.1177/00472875251411867 · Cited by 7
Dolatabadi, S. H., Ishaq, H., & Crawford, C. A. (2026) · Energy Conversion and Management · doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2026.121147 · Cited by 7
Yazgan, B., Doğan, Ö., Bakır, M., & Gun, D. (2024) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su162310513 · Cited by 7
Does cutting airport slots reduce climate impact? The case of Amsterdam airport
Suau-Sánchez, P., Dobruszkes, F., & Mattioli, G. (2025) · Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104744 · Cited by 5
Mirzania, P., Balta‐Ozkan, N., Rothe, H., & Gratton, G. (2025) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su17135674 · Cited by 4
Kogler, M. L., Thaller, A., & Posch, A. (2025) · Journal of Sustainable Tourism · doi:10.1080/09669582.2025.2467128 · Cited by 4
Arblaster, T., Thonemann, N., & Steubing, B. R. P. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02935-5 · Cited by 4
Ammonia versus kerosene contrails: A review
Medlin, R., Meeks, S., Vasel‐Be‐Hagh, A., Damazo, J., & Roberts, R. A. (2025) · Progress in Aerospace Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.paerosci.2024.101074 · Cited by 3
Innovative Green Aviation: Strategic Management and Technological Advancements in Airport Ecosystems
Malagón, R. C., & Medina, L. A. (2025) · European Scientific Journal ESJ · doi:10.19044/esj.2025.v21n38p16 · Cited by 2
Faizal, W. M., Mazlan, N. M., Khor, C. Y., Hazwan, M. H. M., Misbah, M. N., & Haidiezul, A. H. M. (2025) · Fuel · doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2025.137027 · Cited by 2
The ICAO CORSIA System: A New Carbon Market for Russia
Roginko, S. A. (2025) · Studies on Russian Economic Development · doi:10.1134/s1075700725700637 · Cited by 2
Beyond operational emissions: LCA of passenger transport modes for short-distance travel
Antczak, D., & Porta, F. (2026) · Journal of Air Transport Management · doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2026.103008 · Cited by 2
Newsham, R. P., Rekker, S. A. C., Crothers, P., & Camrass, K. (2026) · The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment · doi:10.1007/s11367-026-02614-3 · Cited by 2
Patrichi, I. C., Cioranu, A., Căruțașu, G., Gheorghe, C. M., & Dodu, P. (2026) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su18073324 · Cited by 2
Vacation untouchable – a deconstruction of the liberal ‘right to tourism’
Vogler, R., Schweiggart, N., & Müller, A. (2026) · Annals of Tourism Research · doi:10.1016/j.annals.2026.104196 · Cited by 2
Reuschenbach, E., Reichert, M., Roeb, M., & Sattler, C. (2026) · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy · doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2026.156661 · Cited by 2
Cars and Greenhouse Gas Goals: A Big Stone in Europe’s Shoes
Filho, R. I. D. R. L., de Aquino, T. C. N., Monteiro, B., & Reis, A. (2025) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en18133371 · Cited by 2
Boomer tourism and climate change: an emerging conflict?
Humpe, A., Gößling, S., Bernard, S., & Sonntag, U. (2025) · Current Issues in Tourism · doi:10.1080/13683500.2025.2560677 · Cited by 1
Self-citationEcotourism caught in decarbonisation politics
Buckley, R., Zhong, L., & Gößling, S. (2026) · npj Climate Action · doi:10.1038/s44168-026-00366-2 · Cited by 1
Effect of turbine blades on rotating detonation wave propagation characteristics
Zhang, C., Lin, Z., & Qin, S. (2025) · Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part G Journal of Aerospace Engineering · doi:10.1177/09544100251337806 · Cited by 1
The Climate Crisis and International Airlines
Wynn, M. G., & Jones, P. (2025) · Highlights of Sustainability · doi:10.54175/hsustain4020006
Closing Remarks and Outlook: Futures for Tourism in the Spatial Economy
Romão, J. (2025) · Advances in spatial science · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-88626-3_13
Transport, Spatial Mobility, Sustainability and Climate Change
Romão, J. (2025) · Advances in spatial science · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-88626-3_10
Laplante, J. (2024) · PolyPublie (École Polytechnique de Montréal)
Arblaster, T. (2024) · Research Repository (Delft University of Technology)
Peeters, P. (2025) · Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling
The transition to sustainable aviation fuel: insights from patent analysis and policy implications
Xu, Q., & Mordue, G. (2026) · Energy Conversion and Management X · doi:10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101634
Establishing an aviation ecosystem indicator to reduce CO2 emissions in CDO landings
Noronen-Juhola, H., Soukka, R., & Grönman, K. (2026) · Journal of Airline and Airport Management · doi:10.3926/jairm.510
Salim, E., Varnajot, A., & Bousquet, J. (2026) · Revue de géographie alpine · doi:10.4000/165gl
Salim, E., Varnajot, A., & Bousquet, J. (2026) · Revue de géographie alpine · doi:10.4000/165gk
Silicon photonic sensors for induction welding joints in aerospace composite manufacturing
Poulopoulos, G., Syriopoulos, G., Prousalidi, T., Kannojia, H. K., Missinne, J., Zervos, H., Steenberge, G. V., Apostolopoulos, D., & Avramopoulos, H. (2026) · Optical Sensing and Detection · doi:10.1117/12.3099773
Laplante, J., Armellini, F., & Deschamps, I. (2026) · Aviation · doi:10.3846/aviation.2026.26878
Science-based climate targets for aviation fall short on mitigation and implementation
Tilsted, J. P., Buijtendijk, H., Eijgelaar, E., Peeters, P., & Bjørn, A. (2026) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae7a94
Zivkovic, M., Stamenovic, M., Ćurčić, N., Drobnjak, P., Radivojević, V., Bukumirić, N., Janjic, J., Janković, D., Gajić, T., & Knežević, S. (2026) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su18125874
Corporate net-zero commitments for global climate strategies
Guerraf, A. E., Ziani, I., Anouar, M., Ech‐Chahad, A., Andrei, D. M., & Siripipatthanakul, S. (2026) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-44454-8.00014-5
Poulopoulos, G., Syriopoulos, G., Prousalidi, T., Kyriazi, E., Missinne, J., Zervos, C., Steenberge, G. V., Apostolopoulos, D., & Avramopoulos, H. (2026) · Conference on Lasers and Electro-Optics · doi:10.1364/cleo_at.2026.am2b.2
Poulopoulos, G., Zervos, H., Syriopoulos, G., Kyriazi, E., Prousalidi, T., Solutions, E. T., Poulimenos, A. G., Missinne, J., Steenberge, G. V., & Avramopoulos, H. (2026) · e-Journal of Nondestructive Testing · doi:10.58286/33752
The rising cost of climate change for tourism: a risk assessment
Gößling, S., & Scott, D. J. (2026) · Journal of Sustainable Tourism · doi:10.1080/09669582.2026.2709157
Rupić, B., Panić, A., & Milojević, S. (2026) · Bizinfo Blace · doi:10.71159/bizinfo260023r
Barriers to Implementing Aviation Demand Reduction for Net-Zero by 2050Preprint
Chaldezos, T. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7597727
Metadata
- Authors
- Gössling, S., & Humpe, A.
- Affiliations
- Linnaeus University (SE)
- Munich University of Applied Sciences (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Gössling, Stefan
- ORCID
- Gössling, Stefan
- Venue
- Science of The Total Environment
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2024-02
- Volume
- 912
- Pages
- 169107
- ISSN
- 0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4389776168
- Cited by
- 41
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 7
- FWCI
- 4.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- The Science of The Total Environment (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Liverpool John Moores University (submittedVersion)
- DiVA (Linnaeus University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Aerospace Engineering › Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Aviation Industry Analysis and Trends
- Keywords
- net-zero aviation, barriers to transition, climate policy scenarios, CO2 taxation, carbon balance, aviation governance, climate change mitigation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
