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Cited by 407Microplastics and Plastic PollutionEnvironmental Impact and SustainabilityWaste Management and Recycling

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Global projections of plastic use, end-of-life fate and potential changes in consumption, reduction, recycling and replacement with bioplastics to 2050

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Dokl, Monika, Copot, Anja, Krajnc, Damjan, Fan, Yee Van, Vujanović, Annamaria, Aviso, Kathleen B., Tan, Raymond R., Kravanja, Zdravko, Čuček, Lidija·2024·Sustainable Production and Consumption
DOI 10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.025
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Abstract

Excessive production, indiscriminate consumption, and improper disposal of plastics have led to plastic pollution and its hazardous environmental effects. Various approaches to tackle the challenges of reducing the plastic footprint have been developed and applied, such as the production of alternative materials (design for recycling), the production and use of biodegradable plastic and plastics from power-to-X, and the development of recycling approaches. This study proposes an optimisation strategy based on regression to evaluate and predict plastic use and end-of-life fate in the future based on historical trends. The mathematical model is formulated and correlations based on functions of time are developed and optimised by minimising the sum of squared residuals. The plastic quantities up to the year 2050 are projected based on historical trends analysis, and for improved sustainability , projections are additionally based on intervention analyses. The results show that the global use of plastics is expected to increase from 464 Mt in 2020 up to 884 Mt in 2050, with up to 4725 Mt of plastics accumulated in stock in 2050 (from the year 2000). Compared to other available forecasts, a slightly lower level of plastic use and stock are obtained. The intervention analysis estimates a range of global plastics' consumption between 594 Mt and 1018 Mt in 2050 by taking into account its different increment rates (between −1 % and 2.65 %). In the packaging sector, the implementation of reduction targets (15 % reduction in 2040 compared to 2018) could lead to a 27.3 % decrease in plastic use in 2050 as compared to 2018, while achieving recycling targets (55 % in 2030) would recycle >75 % of plastic packaging in 2050. The partial substitution of fossil-based plastics with bioplastics (polyethylene) will require significant land area, between 0.2 × 10 6 km 2 for obtaining switchgrass and up to around 1.0 × 10 6 km 2 for obtaining forest residue (annual yields of 58.15 t/ha and 3.5 t/ha) in 2050. The intervention analysis shows that proactive policies can mitigate sustainability challenges, however achieving broader sustainability goals also requires reduction of footprints related to energy production and virgin plastic production, the production of bio-based plastics, and the full implementation of recycling initiatives.

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Metadata

Authors
Dokl, M., Copot, A., Krajnc, D., Fan, Y. V., Vujanović, A., Aviso, K. B., Tan, R. R., Kravanja, Z., & Čuček, L.
Affiliations
  • University of Maribor (SI)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • De La Salle University (PH)
Corresponding author
  • Dokl, Monika
  • Čuček, Lidija
ORCID
Venue
Sustainable Production and Consumption
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2024-11
Volume
51
Pages
498-518
ISSN
2352-5509 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.spc.2024.09.025
OpenAlex
W4403258450
Cited by
407
References
77
Citations by year
2026: 259 · 2025: 145 · 2024: 3
FWCI
40.22
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Sustainable Production and Consumption (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • University of Maribor digital library (University of Maribor) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Brno University of Technology Digital Library (Brno University of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Funders
  • Czech Science Foundation (21-45726L)
  • Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency (P2-0414, P2-0421, J7-3149, P2-0412)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Pollution › Microplastics and Plastic Pollution
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Waste Management and Disposal › Waste Management and Recycling
Keywords
plastic pollution, plastic recycling, bioplastics, intervention analysis, switchgrass, forest residues, bio-based plastics, power-to-X, 2050 scenarios, fossil-based plastics

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