Seven decades of plastic flows and stocks in the United States and pathways toward zero plastic pollution by 2050
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The United States is the world's second‐largest producer and consumer of plastics and the largest producer of plastic waste. Understanding the sources, drivers, and destinations of plastic production, consumption, and waste is critical for the United States to develop strategies toward a zero‐plastic pollution future. Here, we characterize the dynamic material flows and stocks of plastics in the United States for nearly seven decades (1950–2018) and project the future trajectories until 2050 under various scenarios on the basis of reduce, reuse, and recycle to explore pathways toward zero plastic pollution. Our estimation shows that 1479 MMt plastics were produced in the United States from 1950 to 2018, 75 MMt waste plastics were domestically recycled, 139 MMt virgin polymers were exported, and 9 MMt recycled waste plastics were imported. Currently, about 326 MMt of plastics still remain in the society as in‐use stock, most of which (63%) are in the construction sector. Plastic pollution would almost double from 37 MMt in 2018 to 86 MMt in 2050 if current consumption pattern and waste management remain unchanged. Single strategies (i.e., plastic bag ban and extended lifespan) could only contribute limited reductions (2%–12%) of plastics pollution, and would not be able to reverse the increasing trajectory of plastic pollution until 2050. Additional measures are needed, such as improving recycling and avoiding landfilling of plastic waste. Our analysis can provide critical insights to help the United States develop long‐term strategies to mitigate and eliminate plastic pollution.
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USA, despite advances in recycling technologies, has one of the lowest plastics recycling rates (5%), facing significant challenges in its plastic waste management.
“Our findings show that USA, despite advances in recycling technologies has one of the lowest plastics recycling rates (5%), facing significant challenges in its plastic waste management 17,35 .”
From Complexities of the global plastics supply chain revealed in a trade-linked material flow analysis (2025) · cites this paper as [35]
Section 4.3 describes US plastics recycling rates as relatively low and says further recycling efforts are needed, supporting the waste-management challenge. But Section 3.2 reports a 9.6% recycling rate in 2018, while the paper's 5.7% figure covers cumulative waste from 1950–2018. The cited passages do not establish that the US has one of the world's lowest rates or that recycling technologies have advanced despite that rate. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Complexities of the global plastics supply chain revealed in a trade-linked material flow analysis
Houssini, K., Li, J., & Tan, Q. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02169-5 · Cited by 363 · see citing works
- Authors
- Kan, M., Wang, C., Zhu, B., Chen, W., Liu, Y., Ren, Y., & Xu, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Tsinghua University (CN)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Xu, Ming
- Venue
- Journal of Industrial Ecology
- Published
- 2023-08-24
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1538-1552
- ISSN
- 1088-1980 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9290
- OpenAlex
- W4386121530
- Cited by
- 38
- References
- 59
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 10
- FWCI
- 2.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.unep.org
- Locations
- Journal of Industrial Ecology (publishedVersion)
- Deep Blue (University of Michigan) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (T2261129475, 52070178)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Pollution › Microplastics and Plastic Pollution
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Waste Management and Disposal › Municipal Solid Waste Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
- Keywords
- plastic pollution, plastic waste, plastic production, plastic consumption, material flow, recycling, plastic bag ban, landfilling, construction industry, plastic waste management, United States
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