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Cited by 2,327Microplastics and Plastic PollutionMunicipal Solid Waste ManagementWaste Management and Recycling

Future Scenarios of Global Plastic Waste Generation and Disposal

Open access
Lebreton, Laurent, Andrady, Anthony·2019·Palgrave Communications
DOI 10.1057/s41599-018-0212-7
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Abstract

The accumulation of mismanaged plastic waste (MPW) in the environment is a global growing concern. Knowing with precision where litter is generated is important to target priority areas for the implementation of mitigation policies. In this study, using country-level data on waste management combined with high-resolution distributions and long-term projections of population and the gross domestic product (GDP), we present projections of global MPW generation at ~1 km resolution from now to 2060. We estimated between 60 and 99 million metric tonnes (Mt) of MPW were produced globally in 2015. In a business-as-usual scenario, this figure could triple to 155–265 Mt y −1 by 2060. The future MPW load will continue to be disproportionately high in African and Asian continents even in the future years. However, we show that this growth in plastic waste can be reduced if developing economies significantly invest in waste management infrastructures as their GDP grows in the future and if efforts are made internationally to reduce the fraction of plastic in municipal solid waste. Using our projections, we also demonstrate that the majority of MPW (91%) are transported via watersheds larger than 100 km 2 suggesting that rivers are major pathways for plastic litter to the ocean.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This study projects global mismanaged plastic waste (MPW) at ~1 km resolution from 2015 to 2060 using country waste-management data with gridded population and GDP. It estimates 60–99 Mt of MPW in 2015, with business-as-usual growth to 155–265 Mt y⁻¹ by 2060 unless waste management improves and plastic demand is reduced.

Key findings

  • Global MPW in 2015 was estimated at 60–99 Mt (midpoint 80 Mt), about 47% of global annual municipal plastic waste generation (midpoint 181 Mt for n = 188 countries).
  • Under business-as-usual scenario A, MPW could nearly triple to 213 (155–265) Mt y⁻¹ by 2060; under scenario B, with waste management improving as GDP grows, global MPW could peak before 2020 and fall to 50 (22–94) Mt y⁻¹ by 2060; under scenario C, capping plastic in municipal solid waste at 10% by 2020 and 5% by 2040 plus scenario B improvements, MPW could fall below 25 Mt y⁻¹ before 2060, with 74% generated in Africa and 21% in Asia.
  • 91% of MPW was generated inside watersheds larger than 100 km², suggesting rivers are major pathways to the ocean; 5% was discarded directly near the coastline (<10 km²) and 4% at 10–100 km², with over a quarter in 14 continental rivers.
  • In 2015, Asia released 52 (42–58) Mt of MPW, 65% of the global total; Africa had the highest unsound disposal rate at 88.5%, producing 17 (10–20) Mt. Top countries were China (17.2 Mt y⁻¹), India (14.4 Mt y⁻¹), and the Philippines (4.52 Mt y⁻¹); Manila was the largest urban centre at 0.81 Mt y⁻¹.

Methods

  • Country-level Waste Atlas data on per capita municipal solid waste generation, mismanaged fraction, and plastic fraction were combined with 30 × 30 arc-second (~1 km) Landscan 2014 population density and UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Geneva GDP distributions; future projections used UN, IMF, and OECD population and GDP projections to 2060.
  • Empirical relationships estimated missing values: per capita MSW generation vs per capita GDP (a = 11.434, b = 0.3433, n = 160), mismanaged fraction vs per capita GDP (e = −3.13 × 10⁻³, f = 104, n = 95), and a global average plastic fraction of 10.9% ± 4.5% (n = 105).
  • Three scenarios were modeled: A, business-as-usual waste management; B, mismanaged fraction declining with GDP growth; C, scenario B plus plastic fraction capped at 10% by 2020 and 5% by 2040. Watershed analysis used HydroSHEDS boundaries.

Limitations

  • The paper states that waste data were reported at national level and may vary within countries; confidence intervals include uncertainties in per capita MSW generation, plastic proportion, and mismanaged fraction. Projections neglect subnational population redistribution, plastic waste exports/imports, exceptional economic or societal events, and changes in technology, product design, or behavior.
  • The paper also notes that population density was assumed to grow at the same rate as the national average, which may bias projections, and that rural exodus could further reinforce urban waste production.
  • Evident from the text: the Waste Atlas data are non-exhaustive (n = 160 for MSW generation, n = 95 for unsound disposal, n = 105 for plastic proportion), and the model assumes per capita solid waste generation scales with GDP within a country and that relative spatial distributions remain constant over time.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1057/s41599-018-0212-7

Cites

29 of 29 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 38 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    The proportion of plastic in municipal solid waste was homogeneously distributed against per capita GDP with an average value of 10.9% and standard deviation of 4.5% (n = 105).

    “The proportion of plastic in municipal solid waste for countries provided by Waste-Atlas was homogeneously distributed when compared against per capita GDP with an average value of 10.9% and standard deviation of 4.5% (n = 105).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Per capita GDP and the proportion of plastic in municipal solid waste did not demonstrate a statistically significant relationship.

    “However, per capita GDP and the proportion of plastic in municipal solid waste did not demonstrate a statistically significant relationship.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingcitation

    The proportion of produced waste that was inadequately disposed varied across regions.

    “However, the proportion of produced waste that was inadequately disposed varied across regions (Waste Atlas, 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Waste Atlas, 2016

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Findingnone given

    Many countries with a high GDP per capita had a reported mismanaged fraction of 0%.

    “Many countries with a high GDP per capita had a reported mismanaged fraction of 0%.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The empirical function Ms_c = a X_c^b with a = 11.434 and b = 0.3433 is the best fit for n = 160 countries.

    “Where a = 11.434(lower: 11.218, upper: 11.953) and b = 0.3433 (lower: 0.3565, upper: 0.3298), best fit parameters for n = 160 countries”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 35
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 31
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Africa had the highest rate of unsound waste disposal with an average of 88.5%, resulting in a total of 17 (10-20) Mt of unsoundly disposed plastic waste.

    “Africa, however, had the highest rate of unsound waste disposal with an average of 88.5% resulting in a total of 17 (10-20) Mt of unsoundly disposed plastic waste despite the low levels of resin production.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The correlation with per capita GDP was positive for per capita municipal solid waste generation and negative for mismanaged fraction.

    “The correlation was expectedly positive for waste generation reflecting the higher consumption levels in rich country and negative for the mismanaged fraction showing a greater amount of waste unsoundly disposed for developing countries (Fig. 1).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Latin America (including the Caribbean) and Africa each produced 19 Mt of plastic waste while Oceania generated about 0.9 Mt.

    “Latin America (including the Caribbean) and Africa each produced 19 Mt of plastic waste while Oceania generated about 0.9 Mt.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Both per capita municipal solid waste generation and mismanaged fraction showed a statistically significant correlation with per capita GDP.

    “Both per capita municipal solid waste generation and mismanaged fraction showed a statistically significant correlation with per capita GDP.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    With an average of 63% of inadequately disposed waste for 2015, Asia released 52 (42-58) Mt of plastic waste into the environment, representing 65% of the global MPW generation.

    “With an average of 63% of inadequately disposed waste for 2015, Asia released 52 (42-58) Mt of plastic waste into the environment, representing 65% of the global MPW generation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Hosting 60% of the global population, the Asian continent was in 2015 the leading generating region of plastic waste with 82 Mt, followed by Europe (31 Mt) and Northern America (29 Mt).

    “Hosting 60% of the global population (United Nations, 2015), the Asian continent was in 2015 the leading generating region of plastic waste with 82 Mt, followed by Europe (31 Mt) and Northern America (29 Mt).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites United Nations, 2015

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Latin America and the Caribbean were the third generating region with 7.9 (6.7-8.3) Mt, followed by Europe with 3.3 (1.3-9.1) Mt, Northern America with 0.3 (0.03-3.0) Mt, and Oceania with 0.14 (0.05-0.32) Mt.

    “Latin America and the Caribbean were the third generating region with 7.9 (6.7-8.3)Mt, followed by Europe with 3.3 (1.3-9.1)Mt, Northern America with 0.3 (0.03-3.0)Mt, and Oceania with 0.14 (0.05-0.32)Mt.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    The Netherlands reported the largest figure for a developed economy, with 19% of plastic in municipal solid waste.

    “Some strong economies for example reported large fractions such as The Netherlands, largest reported figure for a developed economy with 19% of plastic in municipal solid waste.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The consumer demand for plastic in Africa was projected to grow by 375% from the current demand by 2060, the highest growth for a continent, the global average being 210%.

    “The consumer demand for plastic in Africa was projected to grow by 375% from the current demand by 2060, the highest growth for a continent, the global average being 210%.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The Philippines were the third generating country with 4.52 Mt y-1 but Manila was predicted as the largest urban centre for MPW generation with at least 0.81 Mt y-1 for the agglomeration.

    “The Philippines were the third generating country with 4.52 Mt y -1 but Manila, its capital, was predicted as the largest urban centre for the generation of MPW with at least 0.81 Mt y -1 for the agglomeration”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The continent could reduce MPW generation below 30 Mt y-1 by 2040 and below 10 Mt y-1 by 2060.

    “We found that the continent could reduce MPW generation below 30 Mt y -1 by 2040 and below 10 Mt y -1 by 2060.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario B, waste management efforts improve with increased investment in infrastructure as economies grow.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    From our global distribution of mismanaged plastic waste for 2015, we estimated that 5% of waste was discarded directly near the coastline (watershed surface area < 10 km2) and 4% at proximity to the coastline (10 to 100 km2).

    “From our global distribution of mismanaged plastic waste for 2015, we estimated that 5% of waste was discarded directly near the coastline (watershed surface area < 10 km 2 ) and 4% at proximity to the coastline (10 to 100 km 2 ).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Manila, the largest contributor predicted by our model, was followed by Cairo and Kolkata with 0.53 and 0.48 Mt y-1.

    “Manila, the largest contributor predicted by our model, was followed by Cairo and Kolkata with 0.53 and 0.48 Mt y -1 .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    This scenario would mean reducing mismanaged waste below 10% of total generated waste by around 2030 for current major contributors such as China, Thailand, Indonesia or Turkey, and around 2060 for countries like India, the Philippines, or

    “This scenario would mean reducing mismanaged waste below 10% of total generated waste by around 2030 for current major contributors such as China, Thailand, Indonesia or Turkey, and around 2060 for countries like India, the Philippines, or”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario B, waste management efforts improve with increased investment in infrastructure as economies grow.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    By 2020, under a business-as-usual scenario for plastic consumption, the model suggested the world will produce above 200 Mt of municipal plastic waste annually and around 230 Mt by 2025.

    “By 2020, under a business-as usual-scenario for plastic consumption, our predictive model suggested the world will produce above 200 Mt of municipal plastic waste annually and around 230 Mt by 2025.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    If we assume a gradual improvement of waste management infrastructures with scenario B, global MPW generation could peak before 2020 and decrease to 50 (22-94) Mt y-1 by 2060.

    “However, if we assume a gradual improvement of waste management infrastructures with scenario B, we estimated that global MPW generation could peak before 2020 and decrease to 50 (22-94) Mt y -1 by 2060.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario B, waste management efforts improve with increased investment in infrastructure as economies grow.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The rest of the top 10 cities were in Asia with Bangkok (0.45 Mt y-1), New Delhi (0.41 Mt y-1), Shanghai (0.5 Mt y-1), Kuala Lumpur (0.29 Mt y-1), Beijing (0.28 Mt y-1) and Guangzhou (0.27 Mt y-1).

    “The rest of the top 10 cities were in Asia with Bangkok (0.45 Mt y -1 ), New Delhi (0.41 Mt y -1 ), Shanghai (0.5 Mt y -1 ), Kuala Lumpur (0.29 Mt y -1 ), Beijing (0.28 Mt y -1 ) and Guangzhou (0.27 Mt y -1 ).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingnone given

    Combined with gradual investment in waste management infrastructure, global MPW generation could be reduced to a third of current value with annual average generation below 25 Mt y-1 before 2060, including 74% generated in Africa and 21% in Asia.

    “MPW generation could be reduced to a third of current value with annual average generation below 25 Mt y -1 before 2060 including 74% generated in Africa and 21% in Asia.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Under a scenario where countries reduce the fraction of plastic in municipal waste to below 5%, global plastic waste generation would drop to around 140 Mt per year by 2040 but increase again to 2015 levels with nearly 180 Mt per year in 2060 as global population grows.

    “Under a scenario where countries would align to reduce fraction of plastic in municipal waste to below 5%, the global plastic waste generation would drop to around 140 Mt per year by 2040 but increase again to 2015 levels with nearly 180 Mt per year in 2060 as global population grows.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    India would become the largest MPW generating country by 2035 and would reach 46.3 (38.6-52.0) Mt y-1 by 2060, followed by China with 33.3 (28.1-36.8) Mt y-1 and the Philippines with 11.6 (10.1-12.4) Mt y-1.

    “India would become the largest MPW generating country by 2035 and would reach 46.3 (38.6-52.0)Mt y -1 by 2060, followed by China with 33.3 (28.1-36.8)Mt y -1 and the Philippines with 11.6 (10.1-12.4)Mt y -1 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario A, the mismanaged fraction reported by Waste Atlas (2016) is maintained into future years.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Based on long term projections of population and GDP per countries, the global municipal plastic waste generation could reach 300 Mt annually by 2040 and 380 Mt by 2060.

    “Based on long term projections of population and GDP per countries, we estimated the global municipal plastic waste generation could reach 300 Mt annually by 2040 and 380 Mt by 2060.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: For future projections, the relative spatial distribution of population and GDP within countries remains the same over time; possible migration and sub-national variations are neglected.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Waste management data was reported at national level, but values may vary inside countries.

    “This data was reported at national level.However, values may vary inside countries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    By 2050 plastics manufacturing and processing may account for as much as 20% of petroleum consumed globally and 15% of the annual carbon emissions budget.

    “By year 2050 plastics manufacturing and processing may account for as much as 20% of petroleum consumed globally and 15% of the annual carbon emissions budget (World Economic Forum, 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites World Economic Forum, 2016

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Increased migration into urban areas would tend to exacerbate developing hot-spots.

    “An important trend is the increased migration into urban areas that in general would tend to exacerbate the developing hot-spots.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Packaging-related plastics have a particularly short in-use phase and therefore dominate municipal plastic waste and subsequently mismanaged waste.

    “Packaging-related plastics have a particularly short in-use phase and therefore dominate municipal plastic waste and subsequently the mismanaged waste as well.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Jambeck et al. (2015) used a minimum threshold of 2% of mismanaged waste.

    “Jambeck et al. (2015) used a minimum threshold of 2% of mismanaged waste.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Jambeck et al. (2015) source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Over 660 species are known to be affected by plastic debris.

    “Over 660 species (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2012), ranging from seabirds, fish, bivalves to the zooplanktons at the bottom of the marine food chain, are known to be affected by plastic debris”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2012

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Global annual plastic production reached 330 million metric tonnes in 2016.

    “to reach the present global annual production of 330 million metric tonnes (Mt) for 2016 (Plastics Europe, 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Plastics Europe, 2017

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Microplastics are now ubiquitous in soil, rivers and lakes, and oceans.

    “now ubiquitous in soil (Rillig, 2012), rivers and lakes (Lebreton et al., 2017) as well as in the oceans (Barnes et al., 2009).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Rillig, 2012 source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Lebreton et al., 2017 source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Barnes et al., 2009 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Packaging accounts for 42% of global annual resin production.

    “consumer packaging that accounts for 42% of the global annual resin production (Geyer et al., 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Geyer et al., 2017 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Jambeck et al. (2015) concluded that the fraction of waste reaching the oceans represented 4.8 to 12.7 Mt of plastics in 2010 from populations living within 50 km from the coastline.

    “concluded that the fraction of this waste that is reaching the oceans represented 4.8 to 12.7 Mt of plastics in 2010 from populations living within 50 km from the coastline.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Jambeck et al., 2015 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Global population is predicted to increase to over 9.5 billion in 2025, with over 97% of this growth in Asia and Africa.

    “while the global population is predicted to increase to over 9.5 billion in 2025 over 97% of this growth will be in Asia and Africa (United Nations, 2015).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites United Nations, 2015

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Including resin used in spinning textile fibres, global plastic production was closer to 393 Mt.

    “Including the resin used in spinning textile fibres (Lenzing Group, 2016), this figure is closer to 393 Mt”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Lenzing Group, 2016

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Since e is negative, a growth in per capita GDP from t0 to t results in the decrease of mismanaged fraction.

    “Since e is negative, a growth in per capita GDP (Xc) from t 0 to t results in the decrease of mismanaged fraction”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: As the economy grows, waste management infrastructure improves.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    As a significant degree of uncertainty is associated with the minimum mismanaged waste value, upper and lower thresholds varying orders of magnitude from 0.1 to 10% minimum mismanaged waste were considered.

    “However, as a significant degree of uncertainty is associated with this value, we considered using an upper and lower threshold by varying orders of magnitude from 0.1 to 10% minimum mismanaged waste.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Building applications account for about 20% of global plastic production.

    “building applications that accounts for about 20% of global production (Plastics Europe, 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Plastics Europe, 2017

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    A first global estimate of plastic inputs from land to the sea for 2010 proposed to consider municipal plastic waste generation for population living within 50 km from the coastline and assumed 25% (15-40%) of plastic waste from this population enters the ocean.

    “A first global estimate of plastic inputs from land to the sea for 2010 (Jambeck et al., 2015) proposed to consider municipal plastic waste generation for population living within 50 km from the coastline and assumed 25% (15-40%) of plastic waste from this population enters the ocean.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Jambeck et al., 2015 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    A combination of solar UV radiation and high sample temperatures are well known to control the rates of degradation and therefore the fragmentation of MPW into micro-particles.

    “A combination of solar UV radiation and high sample temperatures are well known to control the rates of degradation and therefore the fragmentation of MPW into micro-particles (Abdelhafidia et al., 2015).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Abdelhafidia et al., 2015 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    GDP growth rate is projected above 4% until mid-2020s and early 2040s for China and India, respectively.

    “China and India currently contribute to above a third of the global MPW generation, with GDP growth rate projected above 4% until mid-2020s and early 2040 s respectively (OECD, 2014).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites OECD, 2014

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    This exponential increase in demand for plastics by the end-user is fuelled by GDP growth but also by a substantial increase of population.

    “This exponential increase in demand for plastics by the end-user is fuelled by GDP growth but also by a substantial increase of population.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Africa's demographic is expected to reach 2.9 billion by 2060, representing a population growth of 245% from 2015, much higher than any other continents (global average: 138%).

    “Africa's demographic is expected to reach 2.9 billion by 2060 (United Nations, 2015) representing a population growth of 245% from 2015, much higher than any other continents (global average: 138%).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites United Nations, 2015

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The magnitude and timing of plastic waste displacement on land is poorly known and may be a function of topography, land use, climate, vegetation and particle shape and size.

    “The magnitude and timing of plastic waste displacement on land is poorly known (Horton et al., 2017) and may be a function of topography, land use, climate, vegetation and, particle shape and size (e.g., microplastics may be more easily transported than larger, more complexly shaped debris).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Horton et al., 2017 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Smaller fragments are generated by weathering degradation of plastic debris in the outdoor environment, especially beaches, followed by mechanical action of wind and waves fragmenting the degraded plastics.

    “These smaller fragments are generated by weathering degradation of plastic debris in the outdoor environment, especially beaches, followed by mechanical action of wind and waves fragmenting the degraded plastics (Andrady, 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Andrady, 2017 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Through runoff, winds, and gravity, plastic debris slowly makes its way downhill and enters the sea from coastal environments and through rivers.

    “Through runoff, winds, and gravity, plastic debris slowly makes its way downhill and enters the sea from coastal environments (Jambeck et al., 2015) and through rivers (Lebreton et al., 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Jambeck et al., 2015 source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Lebreton et al., 2017 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    According to the World Bank, 70 and 85% of municipal waste is currently mismanaged in China and India, respectively.

    “According to the World Bank (Hoornweg and Bhada-Tata, 2012), 70 and 85% of municipal waste is currently mismanaged in China and India, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hoornweg and Bhada-Tata, 2012

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Recent research specifically points to ecological impacts of meso-plastics, micro-plastics and nano-plastics in the ocean environment.

    “However, recent research specifically points to ecological impacts of meso-plastics, micro-plastics and nano-plastics in the ocean environment (Avio et al., 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Avio et al., 2017 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Fragmentation of common plastics into micro- and nano-sized particles has been demonstrated in laboratory.

    “Fragmentation of common plastics into micro-and nano-sized particles has been demonstrated in laboratory (Wohlleben and Neubauer, 2016;Kalogerakis et al., 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Wohlleben and Neubauer, 2016 source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Kalogerakis et al., 2017 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The fraction of plastic waste entering the ocean may vary between locations.

    “The fraction of plastic waste entering the ocean may vary between locations, however.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    This growth in plastic waste can be reduced if developing economies significantly invest in waste management infrastructures as their GDP grows in the future and if efforts are made internationally to reduce the fraction of plastic in municipal solid waste.

    “However, we show that this growth in plastic waste can be reduced if developing economies significantly invest in waste management infrastructures as their GDP grows in the future and if efforts are made internationally to reduce the fraction of plastic in municipal solid waste.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario B, waste management efforts improve with increased investment in infrastructure as economies grow.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: In scenario C, the same assumptions as scenario B hold and the fraction of plastic in solid waste is capped to 10% by 2020 and 5% by 2040.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    At least a part of this discrepancy might be due to differences in methodology adopted in previous and present studies.

    “However, at least a part of this discrepancy might be due to differences in methodology adopted in previous and present studies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    This approach naturally yields uncertainties which are also included in the calculation of our confidence interval.

    “This approach naturally yields uncertainties which are also included in the calculation of our confidence interval.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Some uncertainties are associated to our estimates.

    “It is important to note that some uncertainties are associated to our estimates.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Such an index would foster international cooperation and assist countries and municipalities in setting objectives to reduce plastic waste releases into natural environments.

    “Such index would foster international cooperation and assist countries and municipalities in setting objectives to reduce plastic waste releases into natural environments.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    Our projections do not consider plastic waste exports or imports for reprocessing.

    “Also, our projections do not consider plastic waste exports or imports for reprocessing: in 2012, for instance, 15 Mt was traded, mainly between Europe and China.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Study design and conductnone given

    Our model cannot account for future exceptional economic, societal or financial events.

    “Similarly, our model cannot account for future exceptional economic, societal or financial events.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    As local information is unavailable, we proposed a model to consider sub-national variations of plastic consumption.

    “As local information is unavailable, we proposed a model to consider sub-national variations of plastic consumption.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    We introduced lower and upper ranges along our mid-point projections to reflect uncertainties.

    “To reflect these, we introduced lower and upper ranges along our mid-point projections.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    This assumption may introduce a bias in our projections.

    “This assumption may introduce a bias in our projections.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Population density grows at the same rate as the national average.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Advances in technology, consumer product design, and behaviour patterns may change the per capita GDP-consumption relationship as well as conversion rates of waste to MPW.

    “Advances in technology, consumer product design, and behaviour patterns may change the per capita GDP-consumption relationship as well as conversion rates of waste to MPW.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    It is difficult to accurately quantify the rates of potential micro-plastics generation at a given location as the fraction of MPW exposed to solar radiation cannot be easily assessed.

    “It is difficult to accurately quantify the rates of potential micro-plastics generation at a given location as the fraction of MPW exposed to solar radiation cannot be easily assessed.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    Better reporting of waste management practices could lead to the development of a national plastic waste emission index, similarly to the creation of carbon emission index by climate scientists.

    “Better reporting of waste management practices could lead to the development of a national plastic waste emission, similarly to the creation of carbon emission index by climate scientists (Le Quéré et al., 2018).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Le Quéré et al., 2018

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Considering already developed hotspots, those in African continent will experience both high downward solar UV flux as well as high ambient temperatures followed by those in India and East Asia.

    “Considering the already developed hotspots, those in African continent will experience both high downward solar UV flux as well as high ambient temperatures followed by those in India and East Asia.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
62 of 62

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The proportion of plastic in solid waste (p) is the same for all unmanaged waste including litter.

    “Value of p is assumed to be the same for all unmanaged waste including litter.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Per capita solid waste generation scales with GDP inside a country.

    “An important model assumption here, is that per capita solid waste generation scales with GDP inside a country.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    For future projections, the relative spatial distribution of population and GDP within countries remains the same over time; possible migration and sub-national variations are neglected.

    “we neglected the possible migration of population or variations in domestic product inside countries for our future projections as we considered the relative distribution to remain the same over time.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    In scenario A, the mismanaged fraction reported by Waste Atlas (2016) is maintained into future years.

    “For scenario A, we considered the case of business-as-usual where the mismanaged fraction reported by Waste Atlas (2016) were maintained into the future years”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    In scenario B, waste management efforts improve with increased investment in infrastructure as economies grow.

    “In scenario B, we assumed waste management efforts will improve with increased investment in infrastructure as the economies in individual countries grow in the future.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    In scenario C, the same assumptions as scenario B hold and the fraction of plastic in solid waste is capped to 10% by 2020 and 5% by 2040.

    “Finally, in scenario C, we used the same assumption as in scenario B and further reduced the input of individual countries by capping the fraction p of plastic in solid waste to 10% by 2020 and to 5% by 2040.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    As the economy grows, waste management infrastructure improves.

    “i.e., as the economy grows, waste management infrastructure improves”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Waste management data is mainly reported for urban centres and levels of per capita use may not be representative of rural areas.

    “Waste management data is mainly reported for urban centres and we trust that levels of per capita use may not be representative of rural areas.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Waste generation in small watersheds in arid or mountainous unpopulated regions is very small and can be neglected from inland inputs.

    “As the waste generation in these areas is very small since they are generally unpopulated, we neglected the contribution of these regions from inland inputs.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Population density grows at the same rate as the national average.

    “population density was assumed to grow at the same rate as the national average.”
10 of 10

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Fitted parameter's lower and upper bounds are reversed

    Minor

    The stated lower bound for parameter b, 0.3565, is greater than its stated upper bound, 0.3298.

  • 2015 mismanaged share does not match the reported totals

    Minor

    The reported midpoint of 80 Mt is 44.2% of the reported 181 Mt of municipal plastic waste, not about 47%.

    Reported 47 · recomputed 44.198895

  • Urban-centre ranking places Shanghai below cities with smaller estimates

    Minor

    Shanghai's reported 0.5 Mt per year exceeds Kolkata's 0.48 and Sao Paolo's 0.47, so Kolkata cannot be third and Sao Paolo fourth in this ranking.

3 of 3

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. British Plastics Federation (2008) Oil consumption. British Plastics Federation. http://www.bpf.co.uk/press/Oil_Consumption. Accessed 20 Apr 2018
  2. Hoornweg D and Bhada-Tata P (2012) What a waste: a global review of solid waste management. World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17388. Accessed 28 Feb 2016
  3. World Economic Forum (2016) The new plastics economy. Rethinking the future of plastics. World Economic Forum, Geneva, Switzerland

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Lebreton, L., & Andrady, A.
Affiliations
  • The Ocean Cleanup (NL)
  • North Carolina State University (US)
Corresponding author
Lebreton, Laurent
ORCID
Venue
Palgrave Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2019-01-29
Volume
5
Issue
1
ISSN
2055-1045 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1057/s41599-018-0212-7
OpenAlex
W2914665624
Semantic Scholar
b34bc94db2f023fd501247eeb8f8a44f39731fd7
Cited by
2,327
References
29
Citations by year
2026: 233 · 2025: 379 · 2024: 434 · 2023: 451 · 2022: 380 · 2021: 289 · 2020: 137 · 2019: 22 · 2018: 1
FWCI
62.01
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
Funders
U.S. Geological Survey
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Pollution › Microplastics and Plastic Pollution
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Waste Management and Disposal › Municipal Solid Waste Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Waste Management and Disposal › Waste Management and Recycling
Keywords
plastic waste, mismanaged plastic waste, waste management infrastructure, population growth, gross domestic product, municipal solid waste, plastic pollution, developing countries, Africa, Asia

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-08.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-08.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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