Land Transport Development in Three Integrated Scenarios for Germany–Technology Options, Energy Demand and Emissions
Open accessAbstract
Today, transportation contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. However, new technologies are emerging and existing technologies are being further improved. This article presents the results of a comprehensive study on the development of drive-trains, resulting electricity and fuel consumption as well as emissions of CO2 and selected air pollutants in land transport in Germany. This includes a quantitative assessment of technological potentials and of resulting energy consumption and emissions. The scenario building followed an explorative approach. Only the scenario depicting a consistent transition towards electrified mobility and regulated emissions from the energy system leads to a significant reduction in transport related CO2 emissions. Yet, the analysis shows that it is unlikely that the German emission reduction target in 2030 for the transport sector will be met. Nevertheless, the integrated scenario analysis demonstrates that only a joint de-carbonization of both transport and electricity systems lead to a significant reduction of emissions.
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EVs are only able to provide limited decarbonization potential in regions with high grid carbon intensities.
“However, this research has indicated, alongside other studies [39,41,89,91], that EVs are only able to provide limited decarbonization potential in regions with high grid carbon intensities.”
From A National and Regional Greenhouse Gas Breakeven Assessment of EVs across North America (2023) · cites this paper as [91]
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A National and Regional Greenhouse Gas Breakeven Assessment of EVs across North America
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- Authors
- Ehrenberger, S., Seum, S., Pregger, T., Simon, S., Knitschky, G., & Kugler, U.
- Affiliations
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. (DLR) (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Ehrenberger, Simone
- Venue
- Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021-01
- Volume
- 90
- Pages
- 102669
- ISSN
- 1361-9209 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3114111266
- Cited by
- 42
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 2.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- elib (German Aerospace Center) (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Social Sciences › Transportation › transportation and logistics systems
- Keywords
- land transport, transport emissions, CO2 emissions, air pollutants, drive train, energy demand, electricity consumption, fuel consumption, scenario analysis, decarbonization
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