Potentials of autonomous vehicles in a changing private transportation system – a case study in the Stuttgart region
Open accessAbstract
The extensive market introduction of autonomous vehicles will be revolutionary for traditional transportation systems. Especially today's clear boundaries between private and public transportation systems will blur. Due to the possibility of an autonomous relocation of cars, car-sharing will become more relevant and compete the protected taxicab market in Germany. Private car ownership might even become redundant. Having these possible future circumstances in mind, we use a microscopic travel demand model to simulate the mode choice behaviour in a case study for the Stuttgart region: we presume a world without private cars and the presence of a large autonomous mobility on demand (AMOD) service instead. Following, under the assumption that up to four persons share a ride, we calculated the number of cars needed to run the AMOD service smoothly. We show that not all trips, previously made by private car, are substituted by the AMOD service; the modal share of walking, public transportation and bicycling is increasing as well. Due to lower cost of the AMOD service compared with car trips, trip lengths increase as well. The results show that about 45% of all vehicle movements and 20% of all vehicle kilometres could be saved. Furthermore, the results show that about 85% of all vehicles in the Stuttgart region might be dispensable.
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An increase in trip length is shown for a pooling-based SAV service assuming a reduction of cost.
“Heilig et al. (2017) show an increase in trip length for a pooling-based SAV service, assuming a reduction of cost.”
From Shared autonomous vehicle services: A comprehensive review (2020) · cites this paper as Heilig et al., 2017
If private car usage is disabled, the majority of car users will switch to SAV services and not to public transport or other modes.
“In a situation wherein private car usage is disabled, Heilig et al. (2017) have found that the majority of car users will switch to SAV services (and not PT or other modes).”
From Shared autonomous vehicle services: A comprehensive review (2020) · cites this paper as Heilig et al., 2017
Users who did short trips, less than two kilometres, formerly in cars shifted to walking and bicycling.
“Users who did short trips, less than two kilometres, formerly in cars shifted to walking and bicycling.”
From Shared autonomous vehicle services: A comprehensive review (2020) · cites this paper as Heilig et al., 2017
Some previous car users shifted to public transport.
“Some previous car users shifted to PT.”
From Shared autonomous vehicle services: A comprehensive review (2020) · cites this paper as Heilig et al., 2017
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- Authors
- Heilig, M., Hilgert, T., Mallig, N., Kagerbauer, M., & Vortisch, P.
- Affiliations
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Heilig, Michael
- Venue
- Transportation Research Procedia
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017
- Volume
- 26
- Pages
- 13-21
- ISSN
- 2352-1457 (ISSN-L)
- 2352-1465
- OpenAlex
- W2591045740
- Cited by
- 79
- References
- 18
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 4
- FWCI
- 3.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Transportation research procedia (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Repository KITopen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- KITopen
- Funders
- Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft
- Ministerium für Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Wohnungsbau Baden-Württemberg
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Transportation and Mobility Innovations
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation Planning and Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Keywords
- autonomous vehicles, autonomous mobility-on-demand, car sharing, private car ownership, mode choice, travel demand simulation, trip length, modal split, Stuttgart region
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