To what extent has climate change contributed to the recent epidemiology of tick borne diseases?
Abstract
There is no doubt that all vector-borne diseases are very sensitive to climatic conditions. Many such diseases have shown marked increases in both distribution and incidence during the past few decades, just as human-induced climate change is thought to have exceeded random fluctuations. This coincidence has led to the general perception that climate change has driven disease emergence, but climate change is the inevitable backdrop for all recent events, without implying causality. Coincidence and causality can be disentangled using tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) as a test case, based on the excellent long-term data for this medically significant European disease system. Detailed analysis of climate records since 1970 has revealed abrupt temperature increases just prior to the dramatic upsurge in TBE incidence in many parts of central and eastern Europe. Furthermore, the seasonal patterns of this temperature change are such as might have favoured the transmission of TBE virus between co-feeding ticks. Nevertheless, the pattern of climate change is too uniform to explain the marked heterogeneity in the timing and degree of TBE upsurge, for example in different counties within each of the Baltic countries. Recent decreases as well as increases in TBE incidence must also be taken into account. Instead of a single cause, a network of interacting factors, acting synergistically but with differential force in space and time, would generate this epidemiological heterogeneity. From analysis of past and present events, it appears that human behavioural factors have played a more significant role than purely biological enzootic factors, although there is an explicit causal linkage from one to the other. This includes a range of abiotic and biotic environmental factors, together with human behaviour determined by socio-economic conditions. Many of the abrupt changes followed from the shift from planned to market economies with the fall of Soviet rule. Comparisons between eight countries have indeed revealed a remarkable correlation between poverty indicators and the relative degree of upsurge in TBE from 1993. Against this background of longer-term shifts in TBE incidence, sudden spikes in incidence appear to be due to exceptional weather conditions affecting people's behaviour, which have a differential impact depending on socio-economic factors. This new perspective may also help explain the epidemiology of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever around the eastern Mediterranean region, including the current exceptional epidemic in Turkey.
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Not any epidemiological modification should be linked to climate change, since many other factors are involved and often even overriding.
“However, not any epidemiological modification should be linked to climate change, since many other factors are involved and often even overriding [31,32].”
From Impact of climate change in the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases in domestic carnivores (2013) · cites this paper as [31]
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Wikel, S. K. (2022) · Zoonotic Diseases · doi:10.3390/zoonoticdis2030013 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Raghavan, R. K., Almes, K. M., Goodin, D. G., Harrington, J. A., & Stackhouse, P. W. (2014) · Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases · doi:10.1089/vbz.2013.1496 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Crump, A., & Tanimoto, T. E. (2020) · JMA Journal · doi:10.31662/jmaj.2019-0073 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Ticks and tick-borne diseases in the northern hemisphere affecting humans
Boulanger, N., Iijima, H., Doi, K., Watari, Y., Kwak, M. L., Nakao, R., & Wikel, S. K. (2025) · Frontiers in Microbiology · doi:10.3389/fmicb.2025.1632832 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Latas, P. J., Auckland, L. D., Teel, P. D., & Hamer, S. A. (2019) · Journal of Wildlife Diseases · doi:10.7589/2018-11-275 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Presence of antibodies against tick-borne encephalitis virus in sheep in Tunisia, North Africa
Khbou, M. K., Romdhane, R., Foughali, A. A., Sassi, L., Suin, V., Rekik, M., & Benzarti, M. (2020) · BMC Veterinary Research · doi:10.1186/s12917-020-02651-6 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Stiasny, K., Santonja, I., Holzmann, H., Essl, A., Stanek, G., Kundi, M., & Heinz, F. X. (2021) · Eurosurveillance · doi:10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.35.2002108 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Techniques for Managing Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases Under Changing Climate; A review
Muhammad, R., Ghulam, M., Saghira, A. S., Munawar, N., Ullah, A., Ejaz, A., Fatima, A., Sandila, A., Khadija, & Fasiha, K. (2021) · Egyptian Academic Journal of Biological Sciences. B, Zoology · doi:10.21608/eajbsz.2021.157728 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
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Bonilla‐Aldana, D. K., Gutiérrez-Grajales, E. J., Martínez-Arboleda, J. P., Reina-Mora, M. A., Trejos-Mendoza, A. E., Pérez-Vargas, S., Valencia-Mejía, L., Marín-Arboleda, L. F., Osorio-Navia, D., Chacón-Peña, M., et al. (2022) · Parasite Epidemiology and Control · doi:10.1016/j.parepi.2022.e00249 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Detection of Neoehrlichia mikurensis DNA in blood donors in southeastern Sweden
Sandelin, L. L., Olofsson, J., Tolf, C., Rohlén, L., Brudin, L. H., Tjernberg, I., Lindgren, P., Olsén, B., & Waldenström, J. (2022) · Scandinavian Journal of Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1080/23744235.2022.2087732 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Seasonality of immune‐mediated hemolytic anemia in dogs from southern California
Kidd, L. B., Rasmussen, R., Chaplow, E., Richter, K. P., Hill, S. L., & Slusser, P. G. (2014) · Journal of Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care · doi:10.1111/vec.12186 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
A review on epidemiology and ecology of west nile fever: An emerging arboviral disease
Kassiri, H., Dehghani, R., Kasiri, N., & Dehghani, M. (2020) · Journal of Acute Disease · doi:10.4103/2221-6189.283885 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Role of ducks in the transmission cycle of tick‐borne encephalitis virus?
Michel, F., Ziegler, U., Fast, C., Eiden, M., Klaus, C., Dobler, G., Stiasny, K., & Groschup, M. H. (2020) · Transboundary and Emerging Diseases · doi:10.1111/tbed.13704 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Tick-borne encephalitis: From childhood to golden age does increased mobility mean increased risk?
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- Authors
- Randolph, S. E.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Randolph, Sarah E.
- Venue
- Veterinary Parasitology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2010-02
- Volume
- 167
- Issue
- 2-4
- Pages
- 92-94
- ISSN
- 0304-4017 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1976168424
- Cited by
- 163
- References
- 10
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 11
- FWCI
- 6.25
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Veterinary Parasitology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/E010806/1)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Keywords
- climate change, tick-borne diseases, tick-borne encephalitis, temperature change, human behavior, socioeconomic factors, poverty, post-Soviet transition, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, incidence trends
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Humans, Politics, Socioeconomic Factors, Ticks, Tick-Borne Diseases, Climate Change
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