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Cited by 217Prenatal Screening and DiagnosticsMaternal and Perinatal Health InterventionsMaternal and Neonatal Healthcare

Predicting delivery date by ultrasound and last menstrual period in early gestation

Taipale, P·2001·Obstetrics & Gynecology
DOI 10.1016/s0029-7844(00)01131-5
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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To compare last menstrual period and ultrasonography in predicting delivery date. METHODS: We used ultrasound to scan 17,221 nonselected singleton pregnancies at 8-16 completed weeks. The last menstrual period (LMP) was considered certain in 13,541 and uncertain in 3680 cases. The duration of pregnancy from the scan to the day of spontaneous delivery was predicted by crown-rump length, biparietal diameter (BPD), and femur length (FL) using linear regression models, and the results were compared with estimates based on LMP. RESULTS: At all gestational ages, ultrasound was superior to certain LMP in predicting the day of delivery by at least 1.7 days. When deliveries before 37 weeks were excluded, crown-rump length measurement of 15-60 mm (corresponding to 8-12.5 weeks) had the lowest prediction error of 7.3 days. After that time, BPD (at least 21 mm) showed a similar error (7.3 days) and was more precise than crown-rump length. Femur length was slightly less accurate than crown-rump length or BPD. Regression models using a combination of any two or three ultrasonic variables did not improve accuracy of prediction. When ultrasound was used instead of certain LMP, the number of postterm pregnancies decreased from 10.3% to 2.7% (P <.001). CONCLUSION: Ultrasound was more accurate than LMP in dating, and when it was used the number of postterm pregnancies decreased. Crown-rump length of 15-60 mm was superior to BPD, but then BPD (at least 21 mm) was more precise. Combining more than one ultrasonic measurements did not improve dating accuracy.

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  • The prediction error of crown-rump length between 8 and 16 weeks was 7.7 days, while the error by last menstrual period was a little more than 10 days.

    “This is based on a study that showed that the prediction error of CRL between 8 and 16 weeks was 7.7 days, while the error by LMP was a little more than 10 days; therefore, the CRL is considered a more accurate method [21].”

    From First-Trimester Ultrasound: A Comparative Review of Guidelines (2026) · cites this paper as [21]

  • Crown-rump length is a more accurate method than last menstrual period for determining gestational age.

    “This is based on a study that showed that the prediction error of CRL between 8 and 16 weeks was 7.7 days, while the error by LMP was a little more than 10 days; therefore, the CRL is considered a more accurate method [21].”

    From First-Trimester Ultrasound: A Comparative Review of Guidelines (2026) · cites this paper as [21]

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Authors
Taipale, P.
Affiliations
Helsinki University Hospital (FI)
Corresponding author
Taipale, P
Venue
Obstetrics & Gynecology
Publisher
Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Published
2001-02
Volume
97
Issue
2
Pages
189-194
ISSN
0029-7844 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/s0029-7844(00)01131-5
OpenAlex
W2009442978
Cited by
216
References
24
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 19 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 15
FWCI
4.59
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • Obstetrics and Gynecology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Prenatal Screening and Diagnostics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Obstetrics and Gynecology › Maternal and Perinatal Health Interventions
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Maternal and Neonatal Healthcare
Keywords
gestational age estimation, last menstrual period, ultrasound dating, crown-rump length, biparietal diameter, femur length, early pregnancy, singleton pregnancy, prolonged pregnancy, prediction error
MeSH terms
Adult, Anthropometry, Female, Humans, Infant, Newborn, Menstrual Cycle, Predictive Value of Tests, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Trimester, First, Ultrasonography, Prenatal, Crown-Rump Length, Delivery, Obstetric

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