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UK multicentre project on assessment of risk of trisomy 21 by maternal age and fetal nuchal-translucency thickness at 10–14 weeks of gestation
Abstract
Background Prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 21 currently relies on assessment of risk followed by invasive testing in the 5% of pregnancies at the highest estimated risk. Selection of the high-risk group by a combination of maternal age and second-trimester maternal serum biochemistry gives a detection rate of about 60%. We investigated assessment of risk by a combination of maternal age and fetal nuchal-translucency thickness, measured by ultrasonography at 10-14 weeks of gestation.Methods The risk of trisomy 21 was estimated for 96127 women of median age 31 years (range 14-49) with singleton pregnancies. Ultrasonography was done by 306 appropriately trained sonographers in 22 centres. Risk of trisomy 21 was calculated from the maternal age and gestational-age-related prevalence, multiplied by a likelihood ratio depending on the deviation from normal in nuchal-translucency thickness for crown-rump length. The distribution of risks was investigated and the sensitivity of a cut-off risk of 1 in 300 was calculated. Phenotype was assessed by fetal karyotyping or clinical examination of liveborn infants.Findings The estimated trisomy-21 risk, from maternal age and fetal nuchal-translucency thickness, was 1 in 300 or higher in 7907 (8.3%) of 95476 normal pregnancies, 268 (82-2%) of 326 with trisomy 21, and 253 (77.9%) of 325 with other chromosomal defects. The 5% of the study population with the highest estimated risk included 77% of trisomy-21 cases.Interpretation Selection of the high-risk group for invasive testing by this method allows the detection of about 80% of affected pregnancies. However, even this method of risk assessment requires about 30 invasive tests for identification of one affected fetus.
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“Combining clinical information (maternal age and serum parameters) with sonographic assessment of fetal characteristics, predominantly the assessment of nuchal translucency (NT), is recommended practice [131].”
In the citing paper
“According to a large study of almost 10,000 women, the NT was above the 95th centile in 82.2% of fetuses with trisomy 21 and 77.9% with other chromosomal defects, therefore presenting as a valuable marker for identification of fetal abnormalities [45].”
From First-Trimester Ultrasound: A Comparative Review of Guidelines (2026) · cites this paper as [45]
In the citing paper
“More specifically, the CRL of the examined fetus should be between 45 mm and 84 mm according to the protocol described by Nicolaides et al. [45].”
From First-Trimester Ultrasound: A Comparative Review of Guidelines (2026) · cites this paper as [45]
In the citing paper
“On the other hand, the NT in combination with maternal age has a sensitivity of 82.2% and a negative predictive value of 99.9% [45].”
From First-Trimester Ultrasound: A Comparative Review of Guidelines (2026) · cites this paper as [45]
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Clinical value of color doppler ultrasound in prenatal diagnosis of umbilical cord entry abnormity
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“Table 2 summarizes the technical and practical requirements for NT measurements [36].”
BackgroundMethodFirst‐trimester prenatal diagnosis of a familial subtelomeric translocation
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“In der Multicenterstudie der Fetal Medicine Foundation [14,22] hatten nur 3,9% der chromosomal normalen Feten mit einer NT >95.”
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“…with first-trimester serum screens (Bewley et al., 1995; Hafner et al., 1998; Kornman et al., 1996; Orlandi et al., 1997; Pajkrt et al., 1998; Snijders et al., 1998; Taipale *Correspondence to: Aaron B. Caughey, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of California, San…”
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Brachycephaly and frontal lobe hypoplasia in fetuses with trisomy 21 at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks
Borenstein, M., Dagklis, T., Csapó, B., Sotiriadis, A., & Nicolaides, K. H. (2006) · Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1002/uog.3858 · Cited by 9
First trimester screening for fetal abnormalities
Hyett, J. A., & Thilaganathan, B. (1999) · Current Opinion in Obstetrics & Gynecology · doi:10.1097/00001703-199912000-00005 · Cited by 9
Point-of-care screening for chromosomal anomalies in the first trimester of pregnancy.
Spencer, K. (2002) · PubMed · Cited by 9
Maternal Serum Screening for Chromosomal Abnormalities and Neural Tube Defects
Cuckle, H., Pergament, E., & BENN, P. A. (2015) · doi:10.1002/9781118981559.ch12 · Cited by 9
Clinical Audit and Reform of the UK Research Ethics Review System
Cave, E., & Nichols, C. (2007) · Metamedicine · doi:10.1007/s11017-007-9034-0 · Cited by 8
Sheizaf, B., Sheiner, E., Fink, M., Hershkovitz, R., Mazor, M., & Wiznitzer, A. (2009) · The Journal of Maternal-Fetal & Neonatal Medicine · doi:10.1080/14767050802676717 · Cited by 8
“The overall rate of increased NT in our population (2%) with NT 2 mm, is lower than the expected 5% reported in other studies [2].”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialPreliminary analysis of the new ‘Prenatal Risk Calculation (PRC)’ software
Hörmansdörfer, C., Scharf, A., Golatta, M., Vaske, B., Hillemanns, P., & Schmidt, P. (2008) · Archives of Gynecology and Obstetrics · doi:10.1007/s00404-008-0743-z · Cited by 8
“Likelihood ratios for NT are calculated on the data of the British multicentre study [1].”
Thornburg, L. L., Bromley, B., Dugoff, L., Platt, L. D., Fuchs, K. M., Norton, M. E., McIntosh, J. J., Toland, G. J., & Cuckle, H. (2021) · Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1002/uog.23621 · Cited by 8
Decesare, J. Z. (2017) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781316662571.029 · Cited by 8
Kang, H., Wang, L., Li, X., Gao, C., Xie, Y., & Hu, Y. (2022) · BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth · doi:10.1186/s12884-022-05139-3 · Cited by 10
Audit of fetal biometry: understanding sources of error to improve our practice
Papastefanou, I., Nicolaides, K. H., & Salomon, L. J. (2023) · Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1002/uog.26156 · Cited by 8
Merz, E., Eiben, B., Thode, C., Hackelöer, B.-J., Faber, R., Tercanli, S., & Alkier, R. (2023) · Ultraschall in der Medizin - European Journal of Ultrasound · doi:10.1055/a-2104-2689 · Cited by 8
“For two decades, combined first-trimester screening (FTS), including data on maternal age, ultrasound markers, and biochemical parameters, had been the most reliable noninvasive procedure to calculate the risk of chromosomal abnormalities between 11 + 0 and 13 + 6 weeks of gestation [1, 2, 3, 4, 5].”
BackgroundFetal upper limb amelia with increased nuchal translucency
Bianca, S., Bartoloni, G., Libertini, C., Boemi, G., Barrano, B., Cataliotti, A., Barone, C., Indaco, L., Vallone, A., & Ettore, G. (2009) · Congenital Anomalies · doi:10.1111/j.1741-4520.2009.00238.x · Cited by 8
“Increased NT is associated with an increased risk of chromosomal abnormality and is a marker for major cardiac defects, noncardiac structural defects, and rare genetic syndromes, including skeletal dysplasias in chromosomally normal fetuses (Snijders et al. 1998; Hyett et al. 1999).”
BackgroundBurger, N. B., Bekker, M. N., Kok, E., de Groot, C. J. M., Martin, J. F., Shou, W., Scambler, P. J., Lee, Y., Christoffels, V. M., & Haak, M. C. (2015) · Prenatal Diagnosis · doi:10.1002/pd.4687 · Cited by 8
Monochorionic diamniotic twin gestations discordant for markedly enlarged nuchal translucency
Edlow, A. G., Reiss, R. E., Benson, C. B., Gerrol, P., & Wilkins-Haug, L. E. (2011) · Prenatal Diagnosis · doi:10.1002/pd.2691 · Cited by 8
“5 mm was chosen because it corresponds to the 99th percentile for NT thickness (Snijders et al., 1998).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialCowans, N. J., & Spencer, K. (2011) · Prenatal Diagnosis · doi:10.1002/pd.2713 · Cited by 8
“Increased NT thickness is associated with an increased risk of trisomy 21 or other chromosomal anomalies (Nicolaides et al., 1992; Snijders et al., 1998), and NT thickness measurement is the principal contributor to the high detection rates achieved with the first trimester combined test (NT…”
BackgroundBiggio, J. (2005) · Current Opinion in Pediatrics · doi:10.1097/01.mop.0000181470.65000.eb · Cited by 8
The nuchal translucency examination leading to early diagnosis of structural fetal anomalies
Goldstein, I., Weizman, B., Khatib, N., & Weiner, Z. (2014) · Early Human Development · doi:10.1016/j.earlhumdev.2013.12.008 · Cited by 8
Nuchal translucency as a method of first-trimester screening for aneuploidy.
Naidoo, P., Erasmus, I., Jeebodh, J., Nicolaou, E., & Gelderen, C. J. V. (2008) · PubMed · Cited by 8
Prenatal Diagnosis of Double Trisomy 48,XXX,+18 in the First Trimester
Víctor Dezerega, P., Cecilia Be, R., Wong, A. E., Silva, R., & Sepúlveda, W. (2005) · Journal of Ultrasound in Medicine · doi:10.7863/jum.2005.24.5.717 · Cited by 8
Sifakis, S., Akolekar, R., Syngelaki, A., Cruz, J. D. J., & Nicolaides, K. H. (2010) · Prenatal Diagnosis · doi:10.1002/pd.2438 · Cited by 8
“Methods The maternal serum concentration of hPGH at 11 to 13 weeks was measured in a case–control study from 28 pregnancies with fetal trisomy 21, 28 with trisomy 18 and 112 pregnancies with euploid fetuses.”
MethodGenetic Causes of Congenital Malformation in India
Talukder, G., & Sharma, A. K. (2006) · International Journal of Human Genetics · doi:10.1080/09723757.2006.11885942 · Cited by 8
“Women above 34 years should be advised after ultrasonography to avoid amniocetensis with 80% success (Snijders et al. 1998).”
Simpson, J. L., & Otaño, L. (2007) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-06930-7.50009-8 · Cited by 8
A four-year retrospective study of amniocentesis: one centre experience.
Daniilidis, A., Karydas, H., Zournatzi, V., Tantanasis, T., GIANNOULIS, C., & Tzafettas, J. M. (2008) · PubMed Central · Cited by 8
Value of increased nuchal translucency in the era of noninvasive prenatal testing with cell‐free DNA
Holzer, I., Husslein, P. W., Bettelheim, D., Scheidl, J., Kiss, H., & Farr, A. (2019) · International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics · doi:10.1002/ijgo.12808 · Cited by 8
Markova, D. M., Kagan, O., Hoopmann, M., Abele, H., Coughlan, C., Abecia, E. I., Fatemi, H. M., & Lawrenz, B. (2021) · The Journal of Maternal-Fetal & Neonatal Medicine · doi:10.1080/14767058.2021.1906857 · Cited by 8
Metadata
- Authors
- Snijders, R., Noble, P., Sebire, N., Souka, A., & Nicolaides, K.
- Affiliations
- King's College London (GB)
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1998-08
- Volume
- 352
- Issue
- 9125
- Pages
- 343-346
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- OpenAlex
- W2148260008
- Cited by
- 1,572
- References
- 20
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 26 · 2017: 85 · 2016: 34 · 2015: 42 · 2014: 47 · 2013: 60 · 2012: 58
- FWCI
- 73.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- DigitalGeorgetown (Georgetown University Library) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Prenatal Screening and Diagnostics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Down syndrome and intellectual disability research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Fetal and Pediatric Neurological Disorders
- Keywords
- Down syndrome, prenatal diagnosis, nuchal translucency, maternal age, first-trimester screening, risk assessment, invasive prenatal diagnosis, sensitivity, chromosomal abnormalities, fetal karyotyping
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Chromosome Aberrations, Down Syndrome, Female, Fetus, Follow-Up Studies, Gestational Age, United Kingdom, Humans, Karyotyping, Maternal Age, Middle Aged, Neck, Phenotype, Predictive Value of Tests, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Outcome, Sensitivity and Specificity, Prevalence, Likelihood Functions, Ultrasonography, Prenatal, Crown-Rump Length, Risk Assessment, Chromosome Disorders, Pregnant People
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