The DOI matches its Crossref record; 36 of the 36 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Indeed, a technical trading rule may predict cryptocurrency movements in the sense of generating significant returns but still not be profitable once the excess returns are adjusted for transaction costs (Timmermann and Granger 2004).”
From Technical trading and cryptocurrencies (2021) · cites this paper as Timmermann and Granger 2004
Citations
Cites
EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK*
Malkiel, B. G., & Fama, E. F. (1970) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00518.x · Cited by 24,478
Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work
Fama, E. F. (1970) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.2307/2325486 · Cited by 13,635
Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1994) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/t0169 · Cited by 5,498
FAMA, E. F. (1991) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04636.x · Cited by 5,350
Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets
Harrison, J. M., & Kreps, D. M. (1979) · Journal of Economic Theory · doi:10.1016/0022-0531(79)90043-7 · Cited by 3,596
Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model
Engle, R. F., Lilien, D. M., & Robins, R. P. (1987) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1913242 · Cited by 2,469
Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995) · Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · doi:10.2307/1392185 · Cited by 2,340
Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns
BROCK, W., LAKONISHOK, J., & LeBARON, B. (1992) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04681.x · Cited by 2,301
Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns
Hansen, L. P., & Singleton, K. J. (1983) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261141 · Cited by 1,594
Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency
Jensen, M. C. (1978) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(78)90025-9 · Cited by 1,447
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Engle, 1993, Arbitrage valuation of variance forecasts using simulated options, Advances in Futures and Options Research, 6, 393
- Granger, C. W., & Jeon, Y. (2003) Thick Modelling, Journal of Economic Modeling, in press. UCSD, Mimeo.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 401–500 of 517
Investors' reactions and the impact on share price performance
van de Vyver, R. (2012)
Maximum Predictability of Australian Industry Stock ReturnsPreprint
Yao, J. (2005) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.675441
Providing Empirical Evidence from Forex Autotrading to Contradict the Efficient Market Hypothesis
Alonso-González, A., Peris‐Ortiz, M., & Almenar-Llongo, V. (2014) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-08888-4_5
Systematic Risk Asymmetry of the American Real Estate Securities: Some New Econometric EvidencesPreprint
Santis, P. D., & Drago, C. (2014) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2533481
Kermanian, M. A. (2012) · Eastern Mediterranean University Institutional Repository (Eastern Mediterranean University)
The Impact Of The Economic And Financial Crisis On Pension Systems In The European Union
Militaru, D. N. (2011) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics
Analysis of predictable behaviour of security returns on the JSE
Muzenda, S. (2014) · University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg Institutional Repository on DSpace (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg)
Two Trading Procedures Contrasted: One Filter and One PrismPreprint
Kan, S. S. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1741207
A Proposal to Measure the Functional Efficiency of Futures Markets
Consuegra, M., & García-Verdugo, J. (2015) · CIM series in mathematical sciences · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-16118-1_11
Ensaios sobre eficiência nos mercados agropecuários
Rodrigues, M. A. (2015) · doi:10.11606/t.11.2015.tde-11092015-083033
BALTIJOS ŠALIŲ AKCIJŲ KAINŲ SEKTORINIŲ INDEKSŲ PROGNOZAVIMAS
Рудзкис, Р., Valkavičienė, R., & Kvedaras, V. (2014)
The Causal Relationship between Government Opinions and Chinese Stock Market in Social Media Era
Gong, X., & Sriboonchitta, S. (2015) · Studies in computational intelligence · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-27284-9_31
Markets over welfare :the consequences of liberalisation and the financial crisis
Thomas, G. M. N. (2015)
Issuer and Product‐Related Websites
Blüumke, A. (2012) · doi:10.1002/9781119206590.app7
Ştefanescu, R. (2016) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2833564
The Weak Efficient Market Hypothesis in Light of Statistical LearningPreprint
Fiévet, L., & Sornette, D. (2016) · arXiv (Cornell University)
Market Efficiency and Behavioural Finance: Evidence from Indian Stock MarketPreprint
Subodh, U. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2371980
Prediction Efficiency with Artificial Neural Network: Case Study of the SET Index
Chancharat, S. (2013)
THE IMPACT OF U.S. MACROECONOMIC NEWS ANNOUNCEMENTS ON BOND PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. BOND MARKETS
Haataja, J. (2011) · Osuva (University of Vaasa)
to Evolve Profitable Stock Market Strategies
van Lier, J. (2010)
The influence of financial crisis on inefficiency and nonlinearity on Brazilian soybean prices
Cavalheiro, E. A., Vieira, K. M., Paulo, S. R. C., & Maehler, A. E. (2015) · African Journal of Agricultural Research · doi:10.5897/ajar2014.8953
Reis, P. D. (2016) · Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) · doi:10.34626/z9yq-1345
The analysis of risk models for Malaysia’s non-financial sectors
Ahmad, I., Salamudin, N. B., Lim, T. S., & Ulum, Z. K. A. B. (2014) · Malaysian Journal of Business and Economics (MJBE)
Ceballos, L. E. F., Gómez, L. M. J., Gonzales, C. D. C. P., & Torres, G. A. A. (2017) · Revista En-contexto · doi:10.53995/23463279.451
PENGARUH KONTRAK FUTURES INDEKS TERHADAP VOLATILITAS UNDERLYING SPOT MARKET DI INDONESIA
Sukamulja, S., & Fidanti, S. (2017) · Jurnal Manajemen · doi:10.24912/jm.v21i1.145
Finance and Natural Resource Constraints
Agboraw, E., & Jones, A. W. (2017) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-67753-8_3
Mukanga, E. T. (2017) · Business & Social Sciences Journal (BSSJ) · doi:10.26831/bssj.2016.2.2.27-60
RATIONAL INVESTORS INSTEAD OF RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN EFFECTIVE MARKET HYPOTHESIS
Mikołajek-Gocejna, M., & Urbaś, T. (2017) · Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu · doi:10.15611/pn.2017.481.03
The Evolution of Security Prices Is Not Stochastic but Governed by a Physicomathematical LawPreprint
Tzara, W. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3201892
An intelligent investment strategy for return sustainability in global equity markets
Kvietkauskienė, A. (2018) · doi:10.20334/2018-023-m
Cantzos, C., Kalantonis, P., Papagrigoriou, A., & Theotokas, S. (2018) · Advances in finance, accounting, and economics book series · doi:10.4018/978-1-5225-6114-9.ch007
Dynamical Modelling in Operations Management
Wang, X. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-14493-7_8
QUANTIFYING THE ANNOUNCEMENT EFFECTS IN THE U.S. LUMBER MARKET
Ismailova, Z. M. (2019) · doi:10.33915/etd.3812
Bagheri, M., Tehrani, A. G., & Aval, E. N. V. (2019) · International Journal of Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Science · doi:10.33945/sami/ijashss.2019.8.1327
ETKİN PİYASALAR HİPOTEZİ: BİST UYGULAMASI
BAYRAKTAR-, A. (2020) · the Journal of Academic Social Sciences · doi:10.29228/asos.43867
Should Ethical Traders Employ Technical Analysis?Preprint
Urquhart, A., & Zhang, H. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3200440
Sohrabi, B., Jafarabad, A. K., & Hadizadeh, A. (2020) · Journal of Money and Economy · doi:10.52547/jme.15.3.235
Prognozowanie finansowych szeregów czasowych przy użyciu jednokierunkowych sieci neuronowych
Kasznia, A. (2012) · Prace Naukowe / Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
En-contexto, R. (2017) · Revista En-contexto · doi:10.53995/23463279.691
Issuer and Product‐Related Websites
Blüumke, A. (2012) · doi:10.1002/9781119206590.biblio
Bajaj, M., Mazumdar, S. C., & McLaughlin, D. A. (2014) · Emerald Group Publishing Limited eBooks · doi:10.1108/s0193-589520140000026006
Tsinaslanidis, P. E., & Zapranis, A. D. (2015) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-23636-0_1
Fildes, R. A., & Allen, P. G. (2015) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/obo/9780199846740-0064
Review Papers for Journal of Risk and Financial Management (JRFM)
McAleer, M. (2020) · MDPI eBooks · doi:10.3390/books978-3-03943-333-9
International Journal of Business and Management , Vol. 4, No. 3, March 2009
Editior, I. J. B. M. (2009) · International Journal of Business and Management · doi:10.5539/ijbm.v4n3p0
Chege, G. N., & Kirika, S. K. (2021) · International Journal of Finance and Accounting · doi:10.47604/ijfa.1337
A Competitive Approach to Financial Issues
Okur, M., & Gürbüz, A. O. (2013) · Advances in finance, accounting, and economics book series · doi:10.4018/978-1-4666-4635-3.ch011
Algorithmizing the DDM Model for Predictability of Stock Returns
Ichkitidze, Y. R., Pelogeiko, D., Sudakova, A., & Ungvari, L. (2022) · Lecture notes in networks and systems · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-93872-7_8
Kahraman, S., & Sarıyer, G. (2022) · TESAM Akademi Dergisi · doi:10.30626/tesamakademi.991071
Forecasting M&A Shareholder Wealth Effects to Prevent Value-Destroying Deals: Can It Be Done?Preprint
Neto, J. Q. F., Bozos, K., Dutordoir, M., & Nikolopoulos, K. I. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4199363
LET’S MAKE SOME PROFITS ON SEASONAL DEPRESSION ON THE STOCK MARKET
Škrinjarić, T. (2022) · Zbornik radova - Journal of Economy and Business · doi:10.46458/27121097.2022.28.7
Relação do risco de continuidade operacional e o valor das ações listadas na B3
Cescon, J. A., Gallina, A. S., Lima, N. C., da Silva, J. L. R., & Ferreira, J. C. (2023) · Revista Universo Contábil · doi:10.4270/ruc.2022107
Jabłoński, B., & Kika, D. (2023) · Scientific Papers of Silesian University of Technology Organization and Management Series · doi:10.29119/1641-3466.2023.170.9
A Systematic Review of the Literature on Financial Applications of Predictive Analytics
Nanda, S. S. (2023) · Advances in business information systems and analytics book series · doi:10.4018/978-1-6684-7568-3.ch003
Neural Networks in Forecasting Financial Volatility
Ge, W., Lalbakhsh, P., Isai, L., & Suominen, H. (2023) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-981-99-8388-9_15
Quantum-Enhanced Versus Classical Support Vector Machine: An Application to Stock Index ForecastingPreprint
Mercadier, M. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4682186
Anoush Tittu, T., Rakshitha, K. P., Nanditha, T. N., Sireya Rani, M., & Yukthi, S. R. (2024) · INTERANTIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT · doi:10.55041/ijsrem28108
Unlocking the Potential of Predictive Analytics in Financial Decision-Making
Mehta, M., Gupta, G., Goyal, R., Bathla, D., Sarangal, R., & Dangwal, A. (2024) · Advances in finance, accounting, and economics book series · doi:10.4018/979-8-3693-3264-1.ch011
Yang, J., Fang, R., Zhang, M., Zhang, W., & Zhou, J. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4805513
Filho, I. J. D. R. (2024) · Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations (Universidade de São Paulo) · doi:10.11606/t.55.2024.tde-13062024-143337
Goen, A. (2023) · INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TRANSFORMATIONS IN BUSINESS MANAGEMENT · doi:10.37648/ijtbm.v13i01.010
Stock Prediction: Conventional vs. Advanced ModelsPreprint
Chen, T., Li, Y., & Zeng, R. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4978117
Optimising Currency FactorsPreprint
Fan, M., Kearney, F., Li, Y., & Liu, J. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4965896
Profiting Off the High Correlation of Cryptocurrency Pairs Using Statistical Arbitrage
Dann, M., & Kotsireas, I. (2024) · Lecture notes in operations research · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-68974-1_16
Bhatia, P., Chaudhary, N., Dheeraj, & Parikshit (2024) · Emerald Group Publishing Limited eBooks · doi:10.1108/978-1-83797-777-220241016
Data-driven monetary policy: Evidence from the Bank of Japan’s equity purchase program
Liu, Z., Nikitopoulos, C. S., Phua, J. W. K., & Wang, J. (2024) · Pacific-Basin Finance Journal · doi:10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102615
Testing the financial market informational efficiency in emerging statesPreprint
Oprean-Stan, C. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5085958
Predicting High Frequency Prices: New Evidence from the E-mini S&P 500 Futures Market
Ζουρνατζίδου, Γ., Mallidis, I., Floros, C., & Γκίλλας, Κ. (2024) · Springer proceedings in complexity · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-60907-7_48
Enhancing stock ranking forecasting by modeling returns with heteroscedastic Gaussian Distribution
Yang, J., Fang, R., Zhang, M., Zhang, W., & Zhou, J. (2025) · Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2025.130442
Forecasting Oil Prices: How Does Technical Analysis Perform?
Hokayem, J. E. (2025) · IEEE International Conference on Compatibility, Power Electronics and Power Engineering · doi:10.1109/cpe-powereng63314.2025.11027269
Elgayar, A. (2025) · المجلة العلمية للدراسات والبحوث المالية والتجارية · doi:10.21608/cfdj.2025.363947.2194
Fan, M., Kearney, F., Li, Y., & Liu, J. (2025) · Financial Review · doi:10.1111/fire.70000
Ramakau, T., Mokatsanyane, D., Ferreira-Schenk, S., & Matlhaku, K. A. (2025) · Journal of risk and financial management · doi:10.3390/jrfm18070400
Sarıtaş, M. M. (2025) · International Econometric Review · doi:10.33818/ier.1697921
Fundamental Adjustments of Multiples as a Tool to the Business Valuation Accuracy Improvement
Gurov, I. N., & Бочкарев, А. (2025) · Journal of Corporate Finance Research / Корпоративные Финансы · doi:10.17323/j.jcfr.2073-0438.19.2.2025.15-37
How AI Can Reshape Market Efficiency
Barucca, P., & Morone, F. (2025) · Synthese Library/Synthese library · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-96510-4_2
BForTFin: A Financial Domain-Aware Multiscale Evaluation Method for Time-Series Foundation Models
Cheong, N., Hsuen, L. W., Satapathy, R., Cambria, E., Goh, R. S. M., & Chattoraj, J. (2025) · ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF) · doi:10.1145/3768292.3770402
Özbek, G. B. (2025) · İşletme Bilimi Dergisi · doi:10.22139/jobs.1672385
Can technical analysis create returns for beta-based portfolios in the Indian market?
Bhama, V. (2025) · Investment Management and Financial Innovations · doi:10.21511/imfi.22(4).2025.21
The determinants of stock market: The case in United States
Lai, J. H., Lok, H. Y., Oh, W. M., Pow, M. S., & Teo, C. H. (2013)
Shariah Issue of Warrant Contract: Empirical Evidence from Warrant Mispricing in Malaysia Market
Qizam, I., Ardiansyah, M., & Haron, R. (2015) · Global Review of Islamic Economics and Business · doi:10.14421/grieb.2013.011-04
THE IMPLICATIONS OF LIQUIDITY CRISES IN THE CONTEXT OF EMERGING CAPITAL MARKET
Birău, R. F. (2012) · The Young Economists Journal
Snyman, P. F. (2008) · Boloka Institutional Repository (North-west University)
Autonomous Market Intelligence: Agentic AI Nowcasting Predicts Stock ReturnsPreprint
Chen, Z., & Pu, D. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6134446
Sarıtaş, M. M. (2025) · Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University AVESIS
Wagh, D. M. (2026) · International Journal of Advanced Research in Science Communication and Technology · doi:10.48175/ijarsct-31214
Tests de l'efficience faible à partir des ondelettes de Haar
Belsuz, A. (2017) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/b5e1342eze4dcz44f9zbc70za3b907e94778
Metadata
- Authors
- Timmermann, A., & Granger, C. W. J.
- Affiliations
- University of California San Diego (US)
- Corresponding author
- Timmermann, Allan
- ORCID
- Timmermann, Allan
- Venue
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2004-01
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 15-27
- ISSN
- 0169-2070 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2121224351
- Cited by
- 517
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 31 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 32 · 2017: 28 · 2016: 22 · 2015: 35 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 32 · 2012: 33
- FWCI
- 12.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Forecasting (publishedVersion)
- OpenGrey (Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Stock Market Forecasting Methods
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Keywords
- efficient market hypothesis, market efficiency testing, trade opportunities, non-stationarity, financial returns
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review