Cited by 214Neural and Behavioral Psychology StudiesDecision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsMemory and Neural Mechanisms

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Predicting events of varying probability: uncertainty investigated by fMRI

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Volz, Kirsten G, Schubotz, Ricarda I, von Cramon, D.Yves·2003·NeuroImage

DOI 10.1016/s1053-8119(03)00122-8

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Abstract

Many everyday life predictions rely on the experience and memory of event frequencies, i.e., natural samplings. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate the neural substrates of prediction under varying uncertainty based on a natural sampling approach. The study focused particularly on a comparison with other types of externally attributed uncertainty, such as guessing, and on the frontomedian cortex, which is known to be engaged in many types of decisions under uncertainty. On the basis of preceding stimulus cues, participants predicted events that occurred with probabilities ranging from p = 0.6 to p = 1.0. In contrast to certain predictions in a control task, predictions under uncertainty elicited activations within a posterior frontomedian area (mesial BA 8) and within a set of subcortical areas which are known to subserve dopaminergic modulations. The parametric analysis revealed that activation within the mesial BA 8 significantly increased with increasing uncertainty. A comparison with other types of uncertainty indicates that frontomedian correlates of frequency-based prediction appear to be comparable with those induced in long-term stimulus-response adaptation processes such as hypothesis testing, in contrast to those engaged in short-term error processing such as guessing.

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Authors: Volz, K. G., Schubotz, R. I., & von Cramon, D. Y.
Affiliations: Max Planck Society (DE)
Corresponding author: Volz, Kirsten G
ORCID: Schubotz, Ricarda I
Venue: NeuroImage
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2003-06
Volume: 19
Issue: 2
Pages: 271-280
ISSN: 1053-8119 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/s1053-8119(03)00122-8
OpenAlex: W2101401693
Cited by: 214
References: 64
Citations by year: 2026: 5 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 9
FWCI: 6.21
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
hdl.handle.net
Licence: other-oa
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: NeuroImage (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
Topics: Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory and Neural Mechanisms
Keywords: prediction under uncertainty, natural sampling, dopaminergic modulation, guessing, hypothesis testing, error processing
MeSH terms: Adult, Arousal, Brain, Brain Mapping, Female, Frontal Lobe, Humans, Image Processing, Computer-Assisted, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Neural Pathways, Oxygen Consumption, Pattern Recognition, Visual, Probability Learning, Problem Solving, Psychomotor Performance, Mental Recall, Reference Values, Imaging, Three-Dimensional

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Predicting events of varying probability: uncertainty investigated by fMRI

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