The DOI matches its Crossref record; 62 of the 64 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Predicting events of varying probability: uncertainty investigated by fMRI
Open accessAbstract
Many everyday life predictions rely on the experience and memory of event frequencies, i.e., natural samplings. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate the neural substrates of prediction under varying uncertainty based on a natural sampling approach. The study focused particularly on a comparison with other types of externally attributed uncertainty, such as guessing, and on the frontomedian cortex, which is known to be engaged in many types of decisions under uncertainty. On the basis of preceding stimulus cues, participants predicted events that occurred with probabilities ranging from p = 0.6 to p = 1.0. In contrast to certain predictions in a control task, predictions under uncertainty elicited activations within a posterior frontomedian area (mesial BA 8) and within a set of subcortical areas which are known to subserve dopaminergic modulations. The parametric analysis revealed that activation within the mesial BA 8 significantly increased with increasing uncertainty. A comparison with other types of uncertainty indicates that frontomedian correlates of frequency-based prediction appear to be comparable with those induced in long-term stimulus-response adaptation processes such as hypothesis testing, in contrast to those engaged in short-term error processing such as guessing.
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“The greater recruitment of ACC in children, a region involved in conflict monitoring (van Veen and Carter, 2002) and anticipation of uncertain outcome (Volz et al., 2003) suggests that children are less efficient than adolescents or adults at processing uncertainty.”
From A systematic review of fMRI reward paradigms used in studies of adolescents vs. adults: The impact of task design and implications for understanding neurodevelopment (2013) · cites this paper as Volz et al., 2003
Citations
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RETRACTED: Neural correlates of risky monetary decision-making impacting others
Fede, S. J., Jefferson, Y., & Romines, A. J. (2026) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2026.1813515
“…compared high probability and low probability outcomes (rather than certain versus uncertain here); other work suggests we can expect there to be neural differences in how certain versus uncertain outcomes are processed (Volz et al., 2003) and as a function of probability (Seaman et al., 2018).”
RetractedCai, X., Wu, M., Tang, H., Yang, R., & Fan, J. (2026) · Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.3390/bs16091518
“…processing (Feng et al., 2022; Wu et al., 2021), parietal regions are not specific to ambiguity and have been implicated in probability-based decision variables, action selection, and the integration of decision-relevant information (Platt & Glimcher, 1999; Huettel, 2006; Volz et al., 2003).”
Serrao, F., Mauri, M., Gallace, A., Gallucci, M., & Gabbiadini, A. (2026) · Journal of Psychophysiology · doi:10.1027/0269-8803/a000363
Franssen, M., Gao, R., van der Spek, E. D., & Martens, M. H. (2026) · Behaviour and Information Technology · doi:10.1080/0144929x.2026.2746452
Franssen, M., van der Spek, E. D., & Martens, M. (2026) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2026.1917625
Metadata
- Authors
- Volz, K. G., Schubotz, R. I., & von Cramon, D. Y.
- Affiliations
- Max Planck Society (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Volz, Kirsten G
- ORCID
- Schubotz, Ricarda I
- Venue
- NeuroImage
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2003-06
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 271-280
- ISSN
- 1053-8119 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2101401693
- Cited by
- 214
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 6.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- Locations
- NeuroImage (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory and Neural Mechanisms
- Keywords
- prediction under uncertainty, natural sampling, dopaminergic modulation, guessing, hypothesis testing, error processing
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Arousal, Brain, Brain Mapping, Female, Frontal Lobe, Humans, Image Processing, Computer-Assisted, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Neural Pathways, Oxygen Consumption, Pattern Recognition, Visual, Probability Learning, Problem Solving, Psychomotor Performance, Mental Recall, Reference Values, Imaging, Three-Dimensional
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