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Predicting events of varying probability: uncertainty investigated by fMRI
Open accessAbstract
Many everyday life predictions rely on the experience and memory of event frequencies, i.e., natural samplings. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate the neural substrates of prediction under varying uncertainty based on a natural sampling approach. The study focused particularly on a comparison with other types of externally attributed uncertainty, such as guessing, and on the frontomedian cortex, which is known to be engaged in many types of decisions under uncertainty. On the basis of preceding stimulus cues, participants predicted events that occurred with probabilities ranging from p = 0.6 to p = 1.0. In contrast to certain predictions in a control task, predictions under uncertainty elicited activations within a posterior frontomedian area (mesial BA 8) and within a set of subcortical areas which are known to subserve dopaminergic modulations. The parametric analysis revealed that activation within the mesial BA 8 significantly increased with increasing uncertainty. A comparison with other types of uncertainty indicates that frontomedian correlates of frequency-based prediction appear to be comparable with those induced in long-term stimulus-response adaptation processes such as hypothesis testing, in contrast to those engaged in short-term error processing such as guessing.
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“The greater recruitment of ACC in children, a region involved in conflict monitoring (van Veen and Carter, 2002) and anticipation of uncertain outcome (Volz et al., 2003) suggests that children are less efficient than adolescents or adults at processing uncertainty.”
From A systematic review of fMRI reward paradigms used in studies of adolescents vs. adults: The impact of task design and implications for understanding neurodevelopment (2013) · cites this paper as Volz et al., 2003
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“There is evidence that aspects of outcome probability are coded separately to value in the brain (e.g. Critchley et al., 2001; Volz et al., 2003; Dreher et al., 2006; Tobler et al., 2007).”
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“We also excluded studies that reported contrasts that focused only on risk (i.e. in which models focused on probability rather than magnitude; Volz et al. 2003, 2004; Fukui et al. 2005; Huettel et al. 2006), as well as studies that included a dynamic learning component (i.e. in which anticipation…”
Metadata
- Authors
- Volz, K. G., Schubotz, R. I., & von Cramon, D. Y.
- Affiliations
- Max Planck Society (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Volz, Kirsten G
- ORCID
- Schubotz, Ricarda I
- Venue
- NeuroImage
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2003-06
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 271-280
- ISSN
- 1053-8119 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2101401693
- Cited by
- 214
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 6.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- Locations
- NeuroImage (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory and Neural Mechanisms
- Keywords
- prediction under uncertainty, natural sampling, dopaminergic modulation, guessing, hypothesis testing, error processing
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Arousal, Brain, Brain Mapping, Female, Frontal Lobe, Humans, Image Processing, Computer-Assisted, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Neural Pathways, Oxygen Consumption, Pattern Recognition, Visual, Probability Learning, Problem Solving, Psychomotor Performance, Mental Recall, Reference Values, Imaging, Three-Dimensional
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