The benefits and costs of using social distancing to flatten the curve for COVID-19
Open accessAbstract
We examine the net benefits of social distancing to slow the spread of COVID-19 in USA. Social distancing saves lives but imposes large costs on society due to reduced economic activity. We use epidemiological and economic forecasting to perform a rapid benefit–cost analysis of controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Assuming that social distancing measures can substantially reduce contacts among individuals, we find net benefits of about $5.2 trillion in our benchmark case. We examine the magnitude of the critical parameters that might imply negative net benefits, including the value of statistical life and the discount rate. A key unknown factor is the speed of economic recovery with and without social distancing measures in place. A series of robustness checks also highlight the key role of the value of mortality risk reductions and discounting in the analysis and point to a need for effective economic stimulus when the outbreak has passed.
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- Authors
- Thunström, L., Newbold, S. C., Finnoff, D., Ashworth, M., & Shogren, J. F.
- Affiliations
- University of Wyoming (US)
- Corresponding author
- Thunström, Linda
- Newbold, Stephen C.
- Venue
- Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2020
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 179-195
- ISSN
- 2152-2812 (ISSN-L)
- 2194-5888
- PMC
- PMC7242774
- OpenAlex
- W3013647582
- Cited by
- 439
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 66 · 2022: 115 · 2021: 115 · 2020: 88
- FWCI
- 81.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing, cost-benefit analysis, epidemic control, economic costs of lockdown, value of a statistical life, discount rate, economic recovery, economic stimulus, mortality risk reduction, contact reduction
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