The ‘Alice in Wonderland’ mechanics of the rejection of (climate) science: simulating coherence by conspiracism
Open accessAbstract
Science strives for coherence. For example, the findings from climate science form a highly coherent body of knowledge that is supported by many independent lines of evidence: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human economic activities are causing the global climate to warm and unless GHG emissions are drastically reduced in the near future, the risks from climate change will continue to grow and major adverse consequences will become unavoidable. People who oppose this scientific body of knowledge because the implications of cutting GHG emissions—such as regulation or increased taxation—threaten their worldview or livelihood cannot provide an alternative view that is coherent by the standards of conventional scientific thinking. Instead, we suggest that people who reject the fact that the Earth’s climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emissions (or any other body of well-established scientific knowledge) oppose whatever inconvenient finding they are confronting in piece-meal fashion, rather than systematically, and without considering the implications of this rejection to the rest of the relevant scientific theory and findings. Hence, claims that the globe “is cooling” can coexist with claims that the “observed warming is natural” and that “the human influence does not matter because warming is good for us.” Coherence between these mutually contradictory opinions can only be achieved at a highly abstract level, namely that “something must be wrong” with the scientific evidence in order to justify a political position against climate change mitigation. This high-level coherence accompanied by contradictory subordinate propositions is a known attribute of conspiracist ideation, and conspiracism may be implicated when people reject well-established scientific propositions.
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The five manipulation techniques used in the videos are consistently identified as epistemologically dubious: emotionally manipulative rhetoric, incoherent or mutually exclusive arguments, false dichotomies or dilemmas, scapegoating individuals or groups, and ad hominem attacks.
“These five techniques were taken from the broader literature on argumentation and manipulation strategies and are consistently identified as epistemologically dubious: (i) using emotionally manipulative rhetoric to evoke outrage, anger, or other strong emotions (18, 22), (ii) the use of incoherent or mutually exclusive arguments (23), (iii) presenting false dichotomies or dilemmas (24), (iv) scape”
From Psychological inoculation improves resilience against misinformation on social media (2022) · cites this paper as [23]
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Lewandowsky, S., Cook, J., & Lloyd, E.
- Affiliations
- The University of Western Australia (AU)
- The University of Queensland (AU)
- Indiana University Bloomington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lewandowsky, Stephan
- Venue
- Synthese
- Published
- 2016-09-19
- Volume
- 195
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 175-196
- ISSN
- 0039-7857 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-0964
- OpenAlex
- W2522054027
- Cited by
- 151
- References
- 107
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 28 · 2021: 15 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 35 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 47.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Synthese (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Explore Bristol Research (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Royal Society (Wolfson Research Merit Award)
- Australian Research Council
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- climate change denial, conspiracy beliefs, conspiracist ideation, coherence, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change mitigation, climate change skepticism
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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