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The Possibility Principle: Choosing Negative Cases in Comparative Research

MAHONEY, JAMES, GOERTZ, GARY·2004·American Political Science Review

Abstract

A central challenge in qualitative research is selecting the “negative” cases (e.g., nonrevolutions, nonwars) to be included in analyses that seek to explain positive outcomes of interest (e.g., revolutions, wars). Although it is widely recognized that the selection of negative cases is consequential for theory testing, methodologists have yet to formulate specific rules to inform this selection process. In this paper, we propose a principle—the Possibility Principle—that provides explicit, rigorous, and theoretically informed guidelines for choosing a set of negative cases. The Possibility Principle advises researchers to select only negative cases where the outcome of interest is possible. Our discussion elaborates this principle and its implications for current debates about case selection and strategies of theory testing. Major points are illustrated with substantive examples from studies of revolution, economic growth, welfare states, and war.

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Show all 6 references

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Metadata

Authors
MAHONEY, J., & GOERTZ, G.
Venue
American Political Science Review
Published
2004-11
Volume
98
Issue
4
Pages
653-669
ISSN
  • 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
  • 1537-5943
OpenAlex
W2147698235
Cited by
615
References
6
FWCI
39.26
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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MAHONEY, J., & GOERTZ, G. (2004). The Possibility Principle: Choosing Negative Cases in Comparative Research. American Political Science Review. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055404041401

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