Shaping Democratic Practice and the Causes of Electoral Fraud: The Case of Nineteenth-Century Germany

Ziblatt's (2009) empirical analysis of the 'mechanism' sheds some light on possible underlying causal processes, but the evidence provided is quite anecdotal because it is impossible to develop clear empirical tests of an underlying causal mechanism when we do not really know exactly what it is we are tracing.

“While his empirical analysis of the 'mechanism' does shed some light on possible underlying causal processes, the evidence provided is quite anecdotal because it is impossible to develop clear empirical tests of an underlying causal mechanism when we do not really know exactly what it is we are tracing.”

Ziblatt tells us precious little about the actual causal process whereby landed elites are able to capture local officials.

“In particular, he tells us precious little about the actual causal process whereby landed elites are able to capture local officials.”

In Ziblatt's article, the actual mechanism is never fleshed out in sufficient detail to allow evaluation of the underlying theoretical logic or systematic assessment of empirical evidence of the 'capture' mechanism.

“In the article, the actual mechanism is never fleshed out in sufficient detail to allow us to either evaluate the underlying theoretical logic or to assess systematically whether there is empirical evidence of the 'capture' mechanism.”

While Ziblatt tells us something about the process whereby landholding inequality is linked to electoral fraud through local officials, he does not provide sufficient details of the causal mechanism.

“While telling us something about the process whereby landholding inequality (X) is linked to electoral fraud (Y) - it works through local officials - he does not provide sufficient details of the causal mechanism.”

Ziblatt's subsequent empirical case study illustrates that both X and Y are present and that there is some anecdotal evidence suggesting the link is through something like a 'capture' process.

“The subsequent empirical case study does illustrate that both X and Y are present and that there is some anecdotal evidence suggesting that the link is through something like a 'capture' process.”

The anecdotal nature of the evidence is clear in the quote from Ziblatt about a Landrat from Posen.

“The anecdotal nature of the evidence is clear in the following quote that is representative of the types of empirical material presented. Ziblatt writes, 'As one Landrat from Posen reported in his memoirs in 1894, 'I had to join the local branch of the Agrarian League, because everyone I interact with socially - and everyone I hunt with - is a member!' (2009: 16).”

The closest Ziblatt gets to a theoretical description of a causal mechanism is where he writes about landed elites exerting influence indirectly via capture of rural public officials.

“The closest Ziblatt gets to a theoretical description of a causal mechanism is where he writes, '… they [landed elites] exert influence indirectly via the capture of rural public officials such as mayors, county commissioners, police officials, and election officials, who in turn are the actors that interfere with free and fair elections. In its most acute form, capture”