The DOI matches its Crossref record; 92 of the 92 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
On the Evolutionary Origin of Prospect Theory Preferences
Abstract
Prospect theory scholars have identified important human decision-making biases, but they have been conspicuously silent on the question of the origin of these biases. Here we create a model that shows preferences consistent with prospect theory may have an origin in evolutionary psychology. Specifically, we derive a model from risk-sensitive optimal foraging theory to generate an explanation for the origin and function of context-dependent risk aversion and risk-seeking behavior. Although this model suggests that human cognitive architecture evolved to solve particular adaptive problems related to finding sufficient food resources to survive, we argue that this same architecture persists and is utilized in other survival-related decisions that are critical to understanding political outcomes. In particular, we identify important departures from standard results when we incorporate prospect theory into theories of spatial voting and legislator behavior, international bargaining and conflict, and economic development and reform.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1914185 · Cited by 48,524
Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1988) · Decision, Probability and Utility · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511609220.014 · Cited by 32,474
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1975) · Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making · doi:10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_8 · Cited by 22,650
An Economic Theory of Democracy.
Banfield, E. C., & Downs, A. (1958) · Midwest Journal of Political Science · doi:10.2307/2109186 · Cited by 18,594
The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.7455683 · Cited by 18,497
A Theory of Fairness, Competition, and Cooperation
Fehr, E., & Schmidt, K. M. (1999) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355399556151 · Cited by 11,264
Kilzer, E., & Skinner, B. F. (1953) · The American Catholic Sociological Review · doi:10.2307/3707860 · Cited by 8,943
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
(1982) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511809477 · Cited by 8,240
Tversky, A. (1977) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.84.4.327 · Cited by 7,414
Impure Altruism and Donations to Public Goods: A Theory of Warm-Glow Giving
Andreoni, J. (1990) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/2234133 · Cited by 5,825
Cited by
Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: A New Approach
Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Altman, D., Bernhard, M., Fish, S., Hicken, A., Kroenig, M., Lindberg, S. I., McMann, K., Paxton, P., et al. (2011) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592711000880 · Cited by 954
Differences in negativity bias underlie variations in political ideology
Hibbing, J. R., Smith, K. B., & Alford, J. R. (2014) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x13001192 · Cited by 608
The evolution of error: error management, cognitive constraints, and adaptive decision-making biases
Johnson, D. D. P., Blumstein, D. T., Fowler, J. H., & Haselton, M. G. (2013) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.014 · Cited by 364
Self-citationTimely Decisions: The Effects of Past National Elections on Party Policy Change
Somer-Topcu, Z. (2009) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1017/s0022381608090154 · Cited by 294
Why Do Men Hunt?: A Reevaluation of “Man the Hunter” and the Sexual Division of Labor
Gurven, M., & Hill, K. (2009) · Current Anthropology · doi:10.1086/595620 · Cited by 286
Metadata
- Authors
- McDermott, R., Fowler, J. H., & Smirnov, O.
- Venue
- The Journal of Politics
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2008-04
- Volume
- 70
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 335-350
- ISSN
- 0022-3816 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-2508
- OpenAlex
- W1999213716
- Cited by
- 370
- References
- 92
- FWCI
- 8.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: On the Evolutionary Origin of Prospect Theory Preferences. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1017/s0022381608080341
- The paper
- McDermott, R., Fowler, J. H., & Smirnov, O. (2008). On the Evolutionary Origin of Prospect Theory Preferences. The Journal of Politics. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022381608080341
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
