Cited by 204Embodied and Extended CognitionNeural and Behavioral Psychology StudiesAnxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes

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What is mood? A computational perspective

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Clark, James E, Watson, Stuart, Friston, Karl J·2018·Psychological Medicine

DOI 10.1017/s0033291718000430PMC PMC6340107

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Abstract

The neurobiological understanding of mood, and by extension mood disorders, remains elusive despite decades of research implicating several neuromodulator systems. This review considers a new approach based on existing theories of functional brain organisation. The free energy principle (a.k.a. active inference), and its instantiation in the Bayesian brain, offers a complete and simple formulation of mood. It has been proposed that emotions reflect the precision of - or certainty about - the predicted sensorimotor/interoceptive consequences of action. By extending this reasoning, in a hierarchical setting, we suggest mood states act as (hyper) priors over uncertainty (i.e. emotions). Here, we consider the same computational pathology in the proprioceptive and interoceptive (behavioural and autonomic) domain in order to furnish an explanation for mood disorders. This formulation reconciles several strands of research at multiple levels of enquiry.

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Fig. 1. The figure shows how mood can be conceptualised according to the expected precision (μ) and precision of precision (τ) in a two-dimensional space. Here, precision per se corresponds to the predictability of the (prosocial, affiliative and interoceptive) world – and the two dimensions correspond to hyperpriors over precision. It is proposed that pathological changes in mood occur in the extrema of this space, as highlighted. Depression occurs when an uncertain, unpredictable outcome is predicted with high precision (red lines) resulting in a chronic, self-maintaining negative emotional state that is resistant to revision. Mania (blue lines) is characterised by an equally high precision, but with the expectation of a predictable and controllable outcome – correspondingly the environment is chronically and inappropriately labelled as such. Anxiety (green lines) is an expected unpredictability but with low precision. As such, the individual engages in behaviour designed to resolve this uncertainty but which never does. D, depression; M, Mania; Ax, anxious depression.CC BY · PubMed Central

Fig. 2. The figure shows a schematic of the neuromodulatory systems with the probability distributions the embody also displayed. Ascending projections (prediction errors) are shown in red and cortical projections (predictions of precision) are in blue. The expected precision (at different levels of the cortical hierarchy) is encoded by a tonic drive – that exerts a gain control over the red (ascending) projections. Each ascending projection conveys some newsworthy (unpredicted) information. The cortical hierarchy assembles this information (i.e. prediction errors) into an updated representation of the body and world – including its predictability. Our focus in this paper is predictions of predictability (i.e. precision) that are informed by the amplitude of prediction errors from different parts of the cortical hierarchy. (a) Shows the balance in a healthy system. Mood is liable to change with environmental fluctuations due to a precision that mediates fluctuations in synaptic gain. (b) Shows how this fails in depression. A chronically stressful environment has mandated a tonically depleted serotonin drive and the estimated precision is chronically low. This precludes precise prior beliefs (and adaptive stress reducing influences from, e.g prefrontal cortex), thereby exposing cortical updating to ascending (unattenuated) autonomic drives. It is important to note this schematic is highly simplified and that similar changes may play out in other neuromodulatory systems across other mood disorders.CC BY · PubMed Central

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MINDING BETA IV ‐ ACTION IMPULSES
Young, J. H. (2023) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119767398.ch8
MINDING BETA III ‐ THOUGHTS
Young, J. H. (2023) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119767398.ch7
References
Young, J. H. (2023) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119767398.ref
MINDING THE PORTFOLIO OF BELIEFS III
Young, J. H. (2023) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119767398.ch11
THE MBSAT PROGRAM AND ITS DISTINCTIVE FEATURES
Young, J. H. (2023) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119767398.ch3
FREE ENERGY, ACTIVE INFERENCE AND THE PREDICTIVE BETA MIND IN MBSAT
Young, J. H. (2023) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119767398.ch2
Using Predictions to Resolve Emotional Ambiguity: Facial Expression Intensity Influences the Reliance on Prior ExpectationsPreprint
Pullinen, V., Phillips, L. H., Bach, P., Newlands, A., & Jackson, M. C. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/f75cv
Counteracting Uncertainty: Exploring the Impact of Anxiety on Predictive Sensorimotor Control Mechanisms in a Manual Interception TaskPreprint
Harris, D., Arthur, T., Wilson, M., Gallais, B. L., Parsons, T. D., Dill, A., & Vine, S. J. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/654h3
Exploring compatibilities between the Free Energy Principle and Heideggerian existential phenomenology as alternative dynamic conceptualizations of depressionPreprint
Andersen, M. H., & Arenfeldt, S. K. (2023) · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/hyp87
Mathematical Modeling of KANSEI Dynamics for Anxiety Based on Allergy Model
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From falling keys to dreams—Dynamic reorganization
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From Salvador Dali to dreams—topographic reorganization model of dreams
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How Do Prediction Error and Precision Affect the Judgment of Agency in Continuous Operation?: A Bayesian ApproachPreprint
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Internalizing disorders as shape-shifters: Understanding individual and cultural heterogeneity in the presentation of symptomsPreprint
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Open MDMA: An Evidence-Based Synthesis, Theory, and Manual for MDMA Therapy Based on Memory Reconsolidation, Complex Systems, and the Defense CascadePreprint
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Open MDMA: An Evidence-Based Mixed-Methods Review, Theoretical Framework, and Manual for MDMA TherapyPreprint
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Cultural bodybuilding: The embodied influence of culture on perception and action
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The Human AffectomePreprint
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Manipulating perceived postural stability in younger and older adults and the effect on standing postural stability and gait
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Open MDMA: An Evidence-Based Synthesis, Theory, and Manual for MDMA Therapy Based on Predictive Processing, Complex Systems, and the Defense CascadePreprint
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Psychosocial Problems: The Spectrum Model
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Redefining cognitive neurodynamics through transdisciplinary innovation
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Pallavicini, C., Llobenes, L., Cavanna, F., de la Fuente, L. A., Muller, S. L., Costa, M., Gumiy, N., Bruno, N. M., D’Amelio, T. A., Basran, J. K., et al. (2026) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2026.1874178
“Grounded in the Bayesian predictive processing framework (Clark et al., 2018; Friston, 2010), REBUS proposes that psychedelics relax the precision-weighting of high-level priors (how strongly the brain relies on its top-down beliefs when interpreting reality), reducing the rigidity of maladaptive…”
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Aberrant insula activity to negative and reduced learning from positive feedback underlie maladaptive self-beliefs in depression
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“More recently, mental disorders have been conceptualized as an interplay of maladaptive prior internal models with a maladaptive response to prediction errors [5, 10], which is the mismatch between the expectation of any future event and the actual outcome.”

Authors: Clark, J. E., Watson, S., & Friston, K. J.
Affiliations: Newcastle University (GB)
Cumbria Northumberland Tyne and Wear NHS Foundation Trust (GB)
University College London (GB)
Corresponding author: Clark, James E
ORCID: Clark, James E
Watson, Stuart
Friston, Karl J
Venue: Psychological Medicine
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Published: 2018-02-26
Volume: 48
Issue: 14
Pages: 2277-2284
ISSN: 0033-2917 (ISSN-L)
1469-8978
DOI: 10.1017/s0033291718000430
PMC: PMC6340107
OpenAlex: W2789154098
Cited by: 204
References: 104
Citations by year: 2026: 21 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 36 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 3
FWCI: 2.14
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (unspecified)
Locations: Psychological Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
Newcastle University ePrints (Newcastle Univesity) (cc-by)
Funders: Wellcome Trust (088130, 088130/Z/09/Z)
National Institute for Health and Care Research
Newcastle University
Topics: Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Embodied and Extended Cognition
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
Keywords: mood, mood disorders, free energy principle, active inference, Bayesian brain, emotions, interoception, proprioception, uncertainty, hyperprior, computational psychiatry
MeSH terms: Affect, Brain, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Mood Disorders

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