Role of Motor Vehicle Lifetime Extension in Climate Change Policy
Open accessAbstract
Vehicle replacement schemes such as the "cash for clunkers" program in the U.S. and the "scrappage scheme" in the UK have featured prominently in the economic stimulation packages initiated by many governments to cope with the global economic crisis. While these schemes were designed as economic instruments to support the vehicle production industry, governments have also claimed that these programs have environmental benefits such as reducing CO2 emissions by bringing more fuel-efficient vehicles onto the roads. However, little evidence is available to support this claim as current energy and environmental accounting models are inadequate for comprehensively capturing the economic and environmental trade-offs associated with changes in product life and product use. We therefore developed a new dynamic model to quantify the carbon emissions due to changes in product life and consumer behavior related to product use. Based on a case study of Japanese vehicle use during the 1990-2000 period, we found that extending, not shortening, the lifetime of a vehicle helps to reduce life-cycle CO2 emissions throughout the supply chain. Empirical results also revealed that even if the fuel economy of less fuel-efficient ordinary passenger vehicles were improved to levels comparable with those of the best available technology, i.e. hybrid passenger cars currently being produced in Japan, total CO2 emissions would decrease by only 0.2%. On the other hand, we also find that extending the lifetime of a vehicle contributed to a moderate increase in emissions of health-relevant air pollutants (NOx, HC, and CO) during the use phase. From the results, this study concludes that the effects of global warming and air pollution can be somewhat moderated and that these problems can be addressed through specific policy instruments directed at increasing the market for hybrid cars as well as extending lifetime of automobiles, which is contrary to the current wisdom.
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Use scenarios can be constructed which lead to modest emission reductions both for lifetime extension and early retirement.
“Use scenarios can be constructed which lead to modest emission reductions both for lifetime extension [144] and early retirement [145-147].”
From Material efficiency strategies to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with buildings, vehicles, and electronics—a review (2019) · cites this paper as [144]
The car fleet contains vehicles of many ages, with an average service life near 16 years, so new technology reaches the fleet average only slowly.
“(i) The vehicle stock is composed of different age-cohorts with an average lifetime of about 16 years, [21][22][23] which means that there is a delay between the latest technology and the fleet average.”
From Global Carbon Benefits of Material Substitution in Passenger Cars until 2050 and the Impact on the Steel and Aluminum Industries (2014) · cites this paper as [21]
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- Authors
- Kagawa, S., Nansai, K., Kondo, Y., Hubacek, K., Suh, S., Minx, J., Kudoh, Y., Tasaki, T., & Nakamura, S.
- Affiliations
- Kyushu University (JP)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Waseda University (JP)
- Department of Geography, University of Maryland, Maryland, United States
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- Technische Universität Berlin (DE)
- Research Institute of Science for Safety and Sustainability (JP)
- Corresponding author
- Kagawa, Shigemi
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Science & Technology
- Publisher
- American Chemical Society (ACS)
- Published
- 2011-01-25
- Volume
- 45
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1184-1191
- ISSN
- 0013-936X (ISSN-L)
- 1520-5851
- OpenAlex
- W2334135552
- Cited by
- 83
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 1 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 12.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Environmental Science & Technology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- OPUS 4 (Zuse Institute Berlin) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (23510046, 22360386)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Vehicle emissions and performance
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Keywords
- Cash for Clunkers, climate policy, life cycle CO2 emissions, fuel economy, air pollutant emissions, consumer behavior, product lifetime
- MeSH terms
- Air Pollutants, Air Pollution, Vehicle Emissions, Choice Behavior, Commerce, Community Participation, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Motor Vehicles, Global Warming
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