Reconciling sectoral abatement strategies with global climate targets: The case of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet
Open accessAbstract
The IPCC Forth Assessment Report postulates that global warming can be limited to 2 °C by deploying technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialized in the coming decades. However, neither specific technological pathways nor internationally binding reduction targets for different sectors or countries have been established yet. Using the passenger car stock in China as example we compute direct CO(2) emissions until 2050 depending on population, car utilization, and fuel efficiency and compare them to benchmarks derived by assuming even contribution of all sectors and a unitary global per capita emission quota. Compared to present car utilization in industrialized countries, massive deployment of prototypes of fuel efficient cars could reduce emissions by about 45%, and moderately lower car use could contribute with another 33%. Still, emissions remain about five times higher than the benchmark for the 2 °C global warming target. Therefore an extended analysis, including in particular low-carbon fuels and the impact of urban and transport planning on annual distance traveled and car ownership, should be considered. A cross-sectoral comparison could reveal whether other sectors could bear an overproportional reduction quota instead. The proposed model offers direct interfaces to material industries, fuel production, and scrap vehicle supply.
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A fleet-level dynamic model paired with life cycle impact assessment can address the three shortcomings of single-vehicle LCA.
“Dynamic models of the entire vehicle fleet, combined with life cycle impact assessment, are an alternative to single-product LCAs.This dynamic fleet approach can overcome the three limitations. [23]3][24][25]”
From Global Carbon Benefits of Material Substitution in Passenger Cars until 2050 and the Impact on the Steel and Aluminum Industries (2014) · cites this paper as [23]
The car fleet contains vehicles of many ages, with an average service life near 16 years, so new technology reaches the fleet average only slowly.
“(i) The vehicle stock is composed of different age-cohorts with an average lifetime of about 16 years, [21][22][23] which means that there is a delay between the latest technology and the fleet average.”
From Global Carbon Benefits of Material Substitution in Passenger Cars until 2050 and the Impact on the Steel and Aluminum Industries (2014) · cites this paper as [23]
If closed-loop recycling is not implemented, other sectors may be unable to absorb the large amounts of aluminum scrap generated by intensive light-weighting.
“If closed loop recycling is not implemented, then it may happen that other sectors cannot absorb the large amounts of aluminum scrap resulting from intensive light-weighting.23”
From Global Carbon Benefits of Material Substitution in Passenger Cars until 2050 and the Impact on the Steel and Aluminum Industries (2014) · cites this paper as [23]
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- Authors
- Pauliuk, S., Dhaniati, N. M. A., & Müller, D. B.
- Affiliations
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
- Corresponding author
- Müller, Daniel B.
- Venue
- Environmental Science & Technology
- Publisher
- American Chemical Society (ACS)
- Published
- 2011-12-01
- Volume
- 46
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 140-147
- ISSN
- 0013-936X (ISSN-L)
- 1520-5851
- OpenAlex
- W2034670977
- Cited by
- 60
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 1.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Locations
- Environmental Science & Technology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- BIBSYS Brage (BIBSYS (Norway)) (submittedVersion)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Vehicle emissions and performance
- Keywords
- CO2 emissions, 2°C target, fuel economy, low-carbon fuels, vehicle stock, transportation planning, China, vehicle scrapping
- MeSH terms
- Vehicle Emissions, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, China, Fossil Fuels, Models, Theoretical, Global Warming
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