The DOI matches its Crossref record; 14 of the 14 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Steel Scrap Age
Open accessAbstract
Steel production accounts for 25% of industrial carbon emissions. Long-term forecasts of steel demand and scrap supply are needed to develop strategies for how the steel industry could respond to industrialization and urbanization in the developing world while simultaneously reducing its environmental impact, and in particular, its carbon footprint. We developed a dynamic stock model to estimate future final demand for steel and the available scrap for 10 world regions. Based on evidence from developed countries, we assumed that per capita in-use stocks will saturate eventually. We determined the response of the entire steel cycle to stock saturation, in particular the future split between primary and secondary steel production. During the 21st century, steel demand may peak in the developed world, China, the Middle East, Latin America, and India. As China completes its industrialization, global primary steel production may peak between 2020 and 2030 and decline thereafter. We developed a capacity model to show how extensive trade of finished steel could prolong the lifetime of the Chinese steelmaking assets. Secondary steel production will more than double by 2050, and it may surpass primary production between 2050 and 2060: the late 21st century can become the steel scrap age.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Laird, A. K. (1964) · British Journal of Cancer · doi:10.1038/bjc.1964.55 · Cited by 863
Options for Achieving a 50% Cut in Industrial Carbon Emissions by 2050
Allwood, J. M., Cullen, J. M., & Milford, R. L. (2010) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es902909k · Cited by 490
Self-citationSustainable materials with both eyes open
(2013) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.50-3871 · Cited by 434
From constraint to sufficiency: The decoupling of energy and carbon from human needs, 1975–2005
Steinberger, J. K., & Roberts, J. T. (2010) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.09.014 · Cited by 389
Steel all over the world: Estimating in-use stocks of iron for 200 countries
Pauliuk, S., Wang, T., & Müller, D. B. (2013) · Resources, Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2012.11.008 · Cited by 279
Self-citationExploring the engine of anthropogenic iron cycles
Müller, D. B., Wang, T., Duval, B., & Graedel, T. E. (2006) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0603375103 · Cited by 273
Self-citationMapping the global flow of steel: From steelmaking to end-use goods
Cullen, J. M., Allwood, J. M., & Bambach, M. D. (2012) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es302433p · Cited by 268
Self-citationThe Roles of Energy and Material Efficiency in Meeting Steel Industry CO 2 Targets
Milford, R. L., Pauliuk, S., Allwood, J. M., & Müller, D. B. (2013) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es3031424 · Cited by 254
Self-citationMoving Toward the Circular Economy: The Role of Stocks in the Chinese Steel Cycle
Pauliuk, S., Wang, T., & Müller, D. B. (2012) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es201904c · Cited by 234
Self-citationOutlook of the World Steel Cycle Based on the Stock and Flow Dynamics
Hatayama, H., Daigo, I., Matsuno, Y., & Adachi, Y. (2010) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es100044n · Cited by 232
Cited by
Buildings as a global carbon sink
Churkina, G., Organschi, A., Reyer, C. P. O., Ruff, A., Vinke, K., Liu, Z., Reck, B. K., Graedel, T. E., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0462-4 · Cited by 1,045
Bataille, C., Åhman, M., Neuhoff, K., Nilsson, L. J., Fischedick, M., Lechtenböhmer, S., Solano-Rodriquez, B., Denis-Ryan, A., Stiebert, S., Waisman, H., et al. (2018) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.107 · Cited by 680
Madeddu, S., Ueckerdt, F., Pehl, M., Peterseim, J., Lord, M., Kumar, K. A., Krüger, C., & Luderer, G. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abbd02 · Cited by 295
The Roles of Energy and Material Efficiency in Meeting Steel Industry CO 2 Targets
Milford, R. L., Pauliuk, S., Allwood, J. M., & Müller, D. B. (2013) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es3031424 · Cited by 254
Self-citationHow Will Copper Contamination Constrain Future Global Steel Recycling?
Daehn, K. E., Cabrera Serrenho, A., & Allwood, J. M. (2017) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b00997 · Cited by 242
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Pauliuk, S., Milford, R. L., Müller, D. B., & Allwood, J. M.
- Venue
- Environmental Science & Technology
- Publisher
- American Chemical Society (ACS)
- Published
- 2013-03-07
- Volume
- 47
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 3448-3454
- ISSN
- 0013-936X (ISSN-L)
- 1520-5851
- OpenAlex
- W2064422333
- Cited by
- 334
- References
- 14
- FWCI
- 11.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The Steel Scrap Age. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1021/es303149z
- The paper
- Pauliuk, S., Milford, R. L., Müller, D. B., & Allwood, J. M. (2013). The Steel Scrap Age. Environmental Science & Technology. https://doi.org/10.1021/es303149z
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
