Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean
Open accessAbstract
We present ocean chemistry calculations based on ocean general circulation model simulations of atmospheric CO 2 emission, stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 content, and stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 achieved in total or in part by injection of CO 2 to the deep ocean interior. Our goal is to provide first‐order results from various CO 2 pathways, allowing correspondence with studies of marine biological effects of added CO 2 . Parts of the Southern Ocean become undersaturated with respect to aragonite under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, A2, B1, and B2 emission pathways and the WRE pathways that stabilize CO 2 at 650 ppm or above. Cumulative atmospheric emission of 5000 Pg C produces aragonite undersaturation in most of the surface ocean; 10,000 Pg C also produces calcite undersaturation in most of the surface ocean. Stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 at 450 ppm produces both calcite and aragonite undersaturation in most of the deep ocean. The simulated SRES pathways produce global surface pH reductions of ∼0.3–0.5 units by year 2100. Approximately this same reduction is produced by WRE650 and WRE1000 stabilization scenarios and by the 1250 Pg C emission scenario by year 2300. Atmospheric emissions of 5000 Pg C and 20,000 Pg C produce global surface pH reductions of 0.8 and 1.4 units, respectively, by year 2300. Simulations of deep ocean CO 2 injection as an alternative to atmospheric release show greater chemical impact on the deep ocean as the price for having less impact on the surface ocean and climate. Changes in ocean chemistry of the magnitude shown are likely to be biologically significant.
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Anthropogenic CO2 has caused a 30% increase in the concentration of H+ in ocean surface waters since the early 1900s.
“The oceans are a principal sink for anthropogenic CO 2 where it is estimated to have caused a 30% increase in the concentration of Hfoot_0 in ocean surface waters since the early 1900s”
From Volcanic carbon dioxide vents show ecosystem effects of ocean acidification (2008) · cites this paper as [3]
The Introduction (§1) says added CO₂ lowers ocean pH, and Table 1 in Discussion and Conclusions (§5) gives a mean surface-ocean pH decrease of 0.09 from preindustrial conditions to 2000. That corresponds to roughly a 23% increase in H⁺ concentration, not the claimed 30%; the table also uses a preindustrial baseline rather than the early 1900s. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredOcean acidification may lead to a drop in seawater pH of up to 0.5 units by 2100.
“and may lead to a drop in seawater pH of up to 0.5 units by 2100 (refs 2, 3).”
From Volcanic carbon dioxide vents show ecosystem effects of ocean acidification (2008) · cites this paper as [3]
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- Authors
- Caldeira, K., & Wickett, M. E.
- Affiliations
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Caldeira, Ken
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2005-09
- Volume
- 110
- Issue
- C9
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2052743829
- Cited by
- 1,040
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 46 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 60 · 2020: 45 · 2019: 49 · 2018: 53 · 2017: 75 · 2016: 64 · 2015: 56 · 2014: 88 · 2013: 82 · 2012: 91
- FWCI
- 12.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Keywords
- ocean acidification, ocean carbon uptake, aragonite undersaturation, calcite undersaturation, surface ocean pH, SRES scenarios, ocean general circulation model, Southern Ocean
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