Fire season precipitation variability influences fire extent and severity in a large southwestern wilderness area, United States
Abstract
Despite a widely noted increase in the severity of recent western wildfires, this trend has never been quantified. A twenty‐year series of Landsat TM satellite imagery for all forest fires on the 1.4 million ha Gila National Forest suggests that an increases in area burned and area burned severely from 1984–2004 are well correlated with timing and intensity of rain events during the fire season. Winter precipitation was marginally correlated with burn severity, but only in high‐elevation forest types. These results suggest the importance of within‐season precipitation over snow pack in modulating recent wildfire size and severity in mid‐elevation southwestern forests.
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These US trends are widely attributed to shifts towards earlier snowmelt timing, warming-driven increases in vapour pressure deficit, and variability in the timing of spring precipitation.
“These trends are widely attributed to shifts towards earlier snowmelt timing54, though fire activity in the desert Southwest has also been attributed to warming-driven increases in vapour pressure deficit55 and variability in the timing of spring precipitation56.”
From Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013 (2015) · cites this paper as [56]
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Observational evidence of land and atmosphere precursors regulating forest fire in the Himalayas
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Response of ecosystems to rainfall events in burned areas: bases for short-term restoration
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- Authors
- Holden, Z. A., Morgan, P., Crimmins, M. A., Steinhorst, R. K., & Smith, A. M. S.
- Affiliations
- University of Idaho (US)
- University of Arizona (US)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2007-08-23
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 16
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2144897122
- Cited by
- 97
- References
- 20
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 7 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 3.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Agriculture
- Innovative Research Group Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Keywords
- wildfire severity, fire extent, rainfall variability, snowpack, Gila National Forest, high-elevation forests, fire weather
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