Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013
Open accessAbstract
Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km 2 (25.3%) of the Earth’s vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km 2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Using three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices, the paper derives an ensemble annual fire weather season length metric and maps spatiotemporal trends from 1979 to 2013. It reports widespread lengthening of fire weather seasons and increased area and frequency of long fire weather seasons, with correlations to burned area and global land carbon flux.
Key findings
- Fire weather seasons lengthened across 29.6 million km² (25.3%) of the Earth’s vegetated surface, with a global mean fire weather season length increase of 18.7%; significant decreases occurred across 10.7% (12.5 million km²).
- Global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) increased by 108.1% (3.1% per year), and the frequency of long fire weather seasons increased across 62.4 million km² (53.4%) when comparing 1996–2013 with 1979–1996, with decreased frequency across 40.4 million km² (34.6%).
- Fire weather season length and long-season affected area increased significantly across all continents except Australia; most biomes showed significant increases, with exceptions including temperate and montane grasslands, savannas and shrublands, and boreal forests/taiga and tundra. The strongest trends were in tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas and shrublands.
- US fire weather season length correlated with National Interagency Fire Center burned area (ρ=0.679 for 1979–2013; ρ=0.683 for 1992–2013), and long-season affected area also correlated (ρ=0.663 and ρ=0.715). Global net land carbon flux correlated negatively with fire weather season length and long-season affected area (ρ=−0.38 and ρ=−0.48, n=33), strengthening for 2001–2012 (ρ=−0.797 and ρ=−0.825, n=12).
Methods
- Used three sub-daily global meteorological reanalysis data sets from 1979 to 2013: NCEP Reanalysis, NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II (∼210 km resolution), and ECMWF ERA-Interim (∼78 km resolution).
- Calculated the US Burning Index, Canadian Fire Weather Index, and Australian (McArthur) Forest Fire Danger Index; normalized and resampled indices, derived fire weather season length as the number of days each year when fire danger is above half its value range, and averaged all nine fire weather season lengths into an ensemble mean.
- Analyzed trends with Mann–Kendall tests using a four-step process to reduce serial autocorrelation effects, compared event frequency between 1996–2013 and 1979–1996, masked data to vegetated/burnable land from AVHRR landcover, and correlated metrics with reported burned area and global land carbon flux.
Limitations
- Stated in the paper: fire weather season length imperfectly scales with actual fire activity because fires may not be ignited, fuel may be unavailable, or fires may be suppressed by humans; the metric captures the number of days fires are likely to burn but not inter-annual variations in fire season severity.
- Stated in the paper: the weak correlation with Canadian boreal forest burned area may result from averaging across large zonal and meridional climatic gradients, and future work should examine provincial fire activity.
- Evident from the text: the analysis relies on reanalysis data sets and fire danger indices, uses an ensemble mean that may mask regional variation, and reports correlations rather than causal relationships; carbon-flux correlations are based on limited sample sizes (n=33 and n=12).
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Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 33 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
The analysis captures climatic droughts that contributed to the Ash Wednesday fires in Victoria (1983), Canberra bushfires (2003), Black Saturday fires (2009), and the 2012-2013 Australian heatwave.
“Our analysis also captures climatic droughts that contributed to the Ash Wednesday fires in Victoria (1983) (Fig. 4, 1982–1983), the Canberra bushfires (2003) (Supplementary Fig. 3), the Black Saturday fires (2009) (Supplementary Fig. 4) and the widespread heatwave across Australia in the summer of 2012–2013 that promoted long fire weather seasons and intense bushfire activity across most of the”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingcitation
Drought during the early 1980s lengthened fire weather seasons in the West African subtropics.
“For example, drought during the early 1980s (ref. 50) lengthened fire weather seasons in the West African subtropics.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [50] Nicholson, S. E. The nature of rainfall fluctuations in subtropical West Africa. Mon. Weather Rev. 108, 473–487 (1980). source
Not checked in the free run.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Statistically significant increases in fire weather season length were observed across 25.3% (29.6 M km2) of the global vegetated area.
“Globally, fire weather season length increased by 18.7% from 1979 to 2013 (Fig. 2a), with statistically significant increases observed across 25.3% (29.6 M km2) of the global vegetated area and decreases in only 10.7% (12.5 M km2) (Fig. 3a).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Global long fire weather season affected area increased by 108.1%.
“Long fire weather season affected area, defined as the total global area observing fire weather seasons >1 s.d. from the mean, has increased by 3.1% per year from 1979 to 2013, leading to a 108.1% increase in global long fire weather season affected area (Fig. 2b).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Mean annual minimum relative humidity showed a weak but significant trend of −0.127% per decade.
“Mean annual minimum relative humidity showed a weak but significant trend of −0.127% per decade but showed no significant changes in affected area.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Findingown data
Fire weather season length and long fire weather season affected area were significantly correlated with global net land carbon flux from 1979 to 2012 (ρ=−0.38 and ρ=−0.48, n=33, P<0.05 and P<0.01).
“Likewise, fire weather season length and long fire weather season affected area were significantly correlated with global net land carbon flux calculated from an analysis of the global carbon budget from 1979 to 2012 (ref. 48) (See Supplementary Methods) (ρ=−0.38 and ρ=−0.48, n=33, P<0.05 and P<0.01, respectively, Supplementary Fig. 9).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [48] Le Quéré, C. et al. Global carbon budget 2013. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 6, 235–263 (2014). source
Not checked in the free run.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
The ensemble fire weather season length metric captured important wildfire events throughout Eurasia, such as the Indonesian fires of 1997-98 and the 2010 Western Russia heatwave.
“Our ensemble fire weather season length metric captured important wildfire events throughout Eurasia such as the Indonesian fires of 1997–98 where peat fires, following an El Niño-induced drought, released carbon equivalent to 13–40% of the global fossil fuel emissions from only 1.4% of the global vegetated land area (Fig. 4, 1997–1998)46 and the heatwave over Western Russia in 2010 (Fig. 4, 2010)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [46] Page, S. E. et al. The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997. Nature 420, 61–65 (2002). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [51] Zvyagintsev, A. M. et al. Air pollution over European Russia and Ukraine under the hot summer conditions of 2010. Izv. Atmos. Ocean Phys. 47, 699–707 (2011). source
Not checked in the free run.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Areas with the most significant change in fire weather season length occur where not only temperature but also changes in humidity, length of rain-free intervals and wind speeds are most pronounced.
“Our results extend these findings by demonstrating that areas with the most significant change in fire weather season length occur where not only temperature but also changes in humidity, length of rain-free intervals and wind speeds are most pronounced.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Decreases in fire weather season length were observed in only 10.7% (12.5 M km2) of the global vegetated area.
“Globally, fire weather season length increased by 18.7% from 1979 to 2013 (Fig. 2a), with statistically significant increases observed across 25.3% (29.6 M km2) of the global vegetated area and decreases in only 10.7% (12.5 M km2) (Fig. 3a).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
South America's tropical and subtropical forests, grasslands and savannas have experienced a median increase of 33 days in fire weather season length over the last 35 years.
“South America's tropical and subtropical forests, grasslands and savannas have experienced tremendous fire weather season length changes, with a median increase of 33 days over the last 35 years (Fig. 3a and Table 6 ).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Inter-annual variations in mean US fire weather season length were significantly correlated with variation in annual burned area reported by the US National Interagency Fire Center over 1979-2013 and 1992-2013 (ρ=0.679 and 0.683, P<0.001).
“Inter-annual variations in mean US fire weather season length were significantly correlated with variation in annual burned area reported by the US National Interagency Fire Center44 over the full time series from 1979 to 2013 and also from 1992 to 2013, when fire occurrence data quality was highest45 (ρ=0.679 and 0.683, respectively, P<0.001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [44] National Interagency Fire Center. Total Wildland Fires and Acres (1960-2013) <http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html> (2014).
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [45] Short, K. A spatial database of wildfires in the United States, 1992-2011. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 6, 1–27 (2014). source
Not checked in the free run.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Ensemble mean annual maximum temperature across the vegetated land surface increased by 0.184 °C per decade from 1979 to 2013.
“Ensemble mean annual maximum temperature across the vegetated land surface increased by 0.184 °C per decade from 1979 to 2013 (Supplementary Table 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Mean annual rain-free days increased by 1.31 days per decade.
“There were no significant trends in mean annual total precipitation or total precipitation affected area but we did observe a significant increase in mean annual rain-free days, where the mean number of dry days increased by 1.31 days per decade and the global area affected by anomalously dry years significantly increased by 1.6% per decade.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Inter-annual variations in mean fire weather season length were significantly correlated to inter-annual burned area variations from 1980 to 2013 across Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Greece and Latvia.
“Inter-annual variations in mean fire weather season length were also significantly correlated to inter-annual burned area variations from 1980 to 2013 across Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Greece and Latvia (Table 4), and inter-annual variations in long fire weather season affected area were significantly correlated with burned area for Spain, Portugal, Italy and Latvia (Table 4 and Supplementary”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingcitation
Mean annual global vegetated surface maximum temperature was significantly correlated to GISS land-surface temperature anomalies (ρ=0.88, P<0.001).
“Mean annual global vegetated surface maximum temperature was significantly correlated to the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) land-surface temperature anomalies (ρ=0.88, P<0.001)16.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M. & Lo, K. Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004 (2010). source
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- Findingown data
The highest correlations between net land carbon flux and continental biome mean fire weather season metrics were observed in tropical and subtropical forests, grasslands and savannas and xeric shrublands of South America, where regional fire weather season length metrics accounted for 15.7-29.7% of variations in global net land carbon flux.
“The highest correlations between the net land carbon flux and continental biome mean fire weather season metrics were observed in the tropical and subtropical forests, grasslands and savannas and xeric shrublands of South America where regional fire weather season length metrics accounted for between 15.7 and 29.7% of the variations in global net land carbon flux (Table 5).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Since 1979, there have been 6 years, all in the last decade, where >20% of the global vegetated area was affected by long fire weather seasons (2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013).
“Since 1979, there have been 6 years, all in the last decade, where >20% of the global vegetated area has been affected by long fire weather seasons (2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Long fire weather season affected area was significantly correlated to burnt area variations of the full and limited time series in the US (ρ=0.663 and 0.715, P<0.001).
“Further, long fire weather season affected area was also significantly correlated to the burnt area variations of the full and limited time series (ρ=0.663 and 0.715, respectively, P<0.001) (Table 4 and Supplementary Fig. 5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
The frequency of long fire weather seasons increased across 53.4% of the global vegetated area (62.4M km2) between 1996 and 2013 compared with 1979-1996.
“The frequency of long fire weather seasons increased across 53.4% of the global vegetated area (62.4M km2) as observed between 1996 and 2013, compared with 1979–1996, with decreased frequency only observed across 34.6% (40.4 M km2) (Fig. 3b).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
The area witnessing unusually hot years, where maximum temperature was more than 1 s.d. from the mean, increased by 6.3% per decade.
“The amount of area witnessing unusually hot years, where maximum temperature was more than 1 s.d. from the mean, also showed a significant increase of 6.3% per decade (Supplementary Table 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Our results show significant fire weather season lengthening throughout much of the Eastern US Coastal Plains.
“In addition, our results show significant fire weather season lengthening throughout much of the Eastern US Coastal Plains.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Regional variations in fire weather season metrics were much stronger than global trends.
“Continent × biome trends indicate that regional variations in fire weather season metrics were much stronger than global trends (Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
The global area affected by anomalously dry years significantly increased by 1.6% per decade.
“There were no significant trends in mean annual total precipitation or total precipitation affected area but we did observe a significant increase in mean annual rain-free days, where the mean number of dry days increased by 1.31 days per decade and the global area affected by anomalously dry years significantly increased by 1.6% per decade.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Globally, fire weather season length increased by 18.7% from 1979 to 2013.
“Globally, fire weather season length increased by 18.7% from 1979 to 2013 (Fig. 2a), with statistically significant increases observed across 25.3% (29.6 M km2) of the global vegetated area and decreases in only 10.7% (12.5 M km2) (Fig. 3a).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Decreased frequency of long fire weather seasons was observed across 34.6% (40.4 M km2).
“The frequency of long fire weather seasons increased across 53.4% of the global vegetated area (62.4M km2) as observed between 1996 and 2013, compared with 1979–1996, with decreased frequency only observed across 34.6% (40.4 M km2) (Fig. 3b).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Long fire weather season affected area increased by 3.1% per year from 1979 to 2013.
“Long fire weather season affected area, defined as the total global area observing fire weather seasons >1 s.d. from the mean, has increased by 3.1% per year from 1979 to 2013, leading to a 108.1% increase in global long fire weather season affected area (Fig. 2b).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
In 2012, longer-than-normal fire weather seasons across 47.4% of the vegetated area of the US culminated in a near-record setting ∼3.8 MHa of burned area.
“In 2012, for example, longer-than-normal fire weather seasons across an unprecedented 47.4% of the vegetated area of the US (Fig. 4, 2012) culminated in a near-record setting ∼3.8 MHa of burned area.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Inter-annual variations in long fire weather season affected area were significantly correlated with burned area for Spain, Portugal, Italy and Latvia.
“Inter-annual variations in mean fire weather season length were also significantly correlated to inter-annual burned area variations from 1980 to 2013 across Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Greece and Latvia (Table 4), and inter-annual variations in long fire weather season affected area were significantly correlated with burned area for Spain, Portugal, Italy and Latvia (Table 4 and Supplementary”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Drought conditions have subsequently subsided, leading to a steady contraction of fire weather season lengths across much of West Africa.
“Drought conditions have subsequently subsided, leading to a steady contraction of the fire weather season lengths across much of West Africa (Fig. 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
The strongest trends in fire weather season metrics were observed in tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas and shrublands.
“The strongest trends were observed in tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas and shrublands.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
Combined surface weather changes over the last three and a half decades have promoted global wildfire weather season lengthening.
“In summary, we have shown that combined surface weather changes over the last three and a half decades have promoted global wildfire weather season lengthening.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Findingown data
We observed an overall lengthening of the number of days each year that wildfires may burn across more than a quarter of the Earth's vegetated surface.
“However, we observed an overall lengthening of the number of days each year that wildfires may burn across more than a quarter of the Earth's vegetated surface and these fire weather changes could manifest themselves as a positive feedback to global atmospheric carbon accumulations if all the requirements for wildfires are present.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Premisecitation
The alignment of multiple weather extremes, such as hot, dry and windy conditions, leads to the most severe fires.
“Temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed independently influence wildland fire spread rates and intensities, and the alignment of multiple weather extremes, such as the co-occurrence of hot, dry and windy conditions leads to the most severe fires15.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [15] Flannigan, M. D. & Harrington, J. B. A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada (1953-80). J. Appl. Meteorol. 27, 441–452 (1988). source
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- Premisecitation
Temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed independently influence wildland fire spread rates and intensities.
“Temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed independently influence wildland fire spread rates and intensities, and the alignment of multiple weather extremes, such as the co-occurrence of hot, dry and windy conditions leads to the most severe fires15.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [15] Flannigan, M. D. & Harrington, J. B. A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada (1953-80). J. Appl. Meteorol. 27, 441–452 (1988). source
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- Premisecitation
Climatic changes are implicated in global fire variations.
“Climatic changes are implicated in global fire variations23 and are expected to increase fire season severity over the coming decades24.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [23] Flannigan, M. D., Krawchuk, M. A., de Groot, W. J., Wotton, B. M. & Gowman, L. M. Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. Int. J. Wildland Fire 18, 483–507 (2009). source
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- Interpretationown data
The strongest coupling between fire weather and global carbon emissions is occurring in South American tropical and subtropical forests, savannas and grasslands and xeric shrublands, an area of intense land-use pressure.
“Correlations between global net land carbon flux and continental-scale, biome mean fire weather season length metrics were highest across South American tropical and subtropical forests, savannas and grasslands and xeric shrublands (Table 5), highlighting that the strongest coupling between fire weather and global carbon emissions is occurring in an area of intense land-use pressure.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Premisecitation
Climate studies using multi-model ensembles are generally superior to single model approaches.
“Because climate studies using multi-model ensembles are generally superior to single model approaches43, all nine fire weather season lengths for each location were averaged into an ensemble mean fire weather season length, hereafter referred to as ‘Fire Weather Season Length' (See Supplementary Methods).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [43] Hagedorn, R., Doblas-Reyes, F. J. & Palmer, T. N. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting--I. Basic concept. Tellus A 57, 219–233 (2005).
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- Premisecitation
Variation in fire danger metrics have been shown to be closely related to fuel consumption.
“Variation in fire danger metrics have been shown to be closely related to fuel consumption34, and fire activity is generally inversely correlated with vegetation productivity47.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [34] Brown, J. K., Reinhardt, E. D. & Fischer, W. C. Predicting Duff and Woody fuel consumption in Northern Idaho prescribed fires. For. Sci. 37, 1550–1566 (1991).
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- Study design and conductreasoning
Leveraging well-established fire danger indices to explore changes in global wildfire weather only captures part of the potential variations in global pyrogeography.
“As such, leveraging well-established fire danger indices to explore changes in global wildfire weather only capture part of the potential variations in global pyrogeography.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Interpretationreasoning
Recent climatic changes have mitigated wildland fire potential in some regions of Africa since 1979.
“Recent climatic changes have mitigated wildland fire potential in some regions of Africa since 1979.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Premisecitation
A comprehensive global assessment of the interactions of recent climatic changes that lead to an expansion or contraction of fire seasons is lacking.
“While several studies have examined climate-induced regional and circumboreal trends in fire danger252627282930, a comprehensive global assessment of the interactions of recent climatic changes that lead to an expansion or contraction of fire seasons is lacking.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 252627282930
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- Premisecitation
Fire danger indices are closely related to the magnitude and extent of fire activity.
“All are based on daily surface weather variables that are related to the ignitability, spread rate and the control difficulty of an initiating wildland fire31 and they are closely related to the magnitude and extent of fire activity3233.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [3233]
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- Interpretationreasoning
Regionally, documented fire weather changes may not appreciably alter fire regimes if fires are not ignited or if there is no fuel.
“Regionally, our documented fire weather changes may not appreciably alter fire regimes if fires are not ignited or if there is no fuel.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Premisecitation
Biome-level wildfire potential is more appropriately associated with fire danger indices, which are representative of daily synoptic weather patterns.
“Landscape-scale fire behaviour is determined by local weather conditions, but biome-level wildfire potential is more appropriately associated with fire danger indices, which are representative of daily synoptic weather patterns11.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [11] Abatzoglou, J. T. & Kolden, C. A. Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States. Int. J. Wildland Fire 22, 1003–1020 (2013). source
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- Premisecitation
Fire activity is generally inversely correlated with vegetation productivity.
“Variation in fire danger metrics have been shown to be closely related to fuel consumption34, and fire activity is generally inversely correlated with vegetation productivity47.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [47] Girardin, M. P. Interannual to decadal changes in area burned in Canada from 1781 to 1982 and the relationship to Northern Hemisphere land temperatures. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16, 557–566 (2007). source
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- Interpretationown data
The negative correlations between fire weather metrics and global net land carbon flux suggest that when average fire weather seasons are longer-than-normal or when long seasons impacted more global burnable area, net global terrestrial carbon uptake is reduced.
“These correlations were negative, suggesting that when average fire weather seasons are longer-than-normal or when long seasons impacted more global burnable area, net global terrestrial carbon uptake is reduced.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- Interpretationreasoning
These fire weather changes could manifest themselves as a positive feedback to global atmospheric carbon accumulations if all the requirements for wildfires are present.
“However, we observed an overall lengthening of the number of days each year that wildfires may burn across more than a quarter of the Earth's vegetated surface and these fire weather changes could manifest themselves as a positive feedback to global atmospheric carbon accumulations if all the requirements for wildfires are present.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
- May combine two claims. 14
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 12
May combine two claims.
FindingcitationThe metric captured a rare drought in the Amazon in 2005 that prompted long fire weather seasons, leading to a dramatic increase in basin-wide fire activity.
“Our metric captured a rare drought in the Amazon in 2005 that prompted long fire weather seasons, leading to a dramatic increase in basin-wide fire activity58 (Fig. 4, 2005).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [58] Zeng, N. et al. Causes and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought. Environ. Res. Lett. 3, 014002 (2008). source
Not checked in the free run.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataGlobally, most biomes showed significant increases in fire weather season metrics, with exceptions of temperate and montane grasslands, savannas and shrublands and boreal forests/taiga and tundra.
“Globally, most biomes showed significant increases in fire weather season metrics with the exceptions of temperate and montane grasslands, savannas and shrublands and boreal forests/taiga and tundra (Table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataEuropean Mediterranean forests showed a lengthening of fire weather season length of 12 to 19 days (inner-quartile range), with a maximum increase of 29 days from 1979 to 2013.
“European Mediterranean forests were also identified as being susceptible to significant changes: the inner-quartile range of fire weather season length trends indicate a lengthening of 12 to 19 days, with a maximum increase of nearly a month (29 days) from 1979 to 2013 (Table 6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataBoth mean fire weather season length and long fire weather season affected area, constrained to boreal forests where most Canadian fires occur, were only weakly correlated to burned area across Canadian forests (ρ=0.3 and 0.324, P<0.1).
“Both mean fire weather season length and long fire weather season affected area, constrained to only boreal forests where most Canadian fires occur, were only weakly correlated to burned area across Canadian forests (ρ=0.3 and 0.324, respectively, P<0.1) (Table 4 and Supplementary Fig. 5).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataFire weather season length and long fire weather season affected area increased significantly across all continents except Australia.
“Fire weather season length and long fire weather season affected area increased significantly across all continents except Australia (Table 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataWhen constrained to the MODIS period 2001-2012, correlations between fire weather season length, long fire season affected area and net land carbon fluxes increased to ρ=−0.797 and ρ=−0.825 (n=12, P<0.01).
“In addition, when correlations were constrained to the time period that satellite burned area observations were available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (2001-2012), and thus where estimates of land-use change carbon emissions were more certain2, correlations between fire weather season length, long fire season affected area and net land carbon fluxes increased”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [2] Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T. & van der Werf, G. R. Analysis of daily, monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth generation global fire emissions database (GFED4). J. Geophys. Res. 118, 317–328 (2013). source
Not checked in the free run.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThere were no significant trends in mean annual total precipitation or total precipitation affected area.
“There were no significant trends in mean annual total precipitation or total precipitation affected area but we did observe a significant increase in mean annual rain-free days, where the mean number of dry days increased by 1.31 days per decade and the global area affected by anomalously dry years significantly increased by 1.6% per decade.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAustralia showed no significant trends in biome-level fire season length, but regional increases in frequency of anomalously long fire weather seasons were identified, especially from 1996 to 2013.
“In contrast to all other continents in our analysis, Australia showed no significant trends in biome-level fire season length, but we identified regional increases in the frequency of anomalously long fire weather seasons, especially from 1996 to 2013 (Fig. 3b).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationGlobal temperatures have increased by approximately 0.2 °C per decade over the last three decades.
“Global temperatures have increased by ∼0.2 °C per decade over the last three decades16, possibly leading to an acceleration of the global water cycle with more intense rainfall events17, more severe and widespread droughts18 (despite drought frequencies appearing unchanged19) and regional humidity variations20.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M. & Lo, K. Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004 (2010). source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationWildfires occur at the intersection of dry weather, available fuel and ignition sources.
“Wildfires occur at the intersection of dry weather, available fuel and ignition sources10.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [10] Moritz, M. A., Morais, M. E., Summerell, L. A., Carlson, J. M. & Doyle, J. Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 17912–17917 (2005). source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationWeather is the most variable and largest driver of regional burned area.
“Weather is the most variable and largest driver of regional burned area11121314.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites 11121314
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningLow correlations between fire weather season length and global land carbon uptake are to be expected because wildfires represent a small proportion of the total land carbon flux.
“Generally, low correlations between fire weather season length and global land carbon uptake are to be expected because wildfires represent a small proportion of the total land carbon flux.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenThe fire weather season length metric captures variations in the number of days each year that fires are likely to burn, but it does not account for inter-annual variations in fire season severity.
“In addition, our fire weather season length metric captures variations in the number of days each year that fires are likely to burn, but it does not account for inter-annual variations in fire season severity.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationFire danger indices capture changes in fuel moistures and thus scale to fuel consumption and pyrogenic emission production.
“Furthermore, these indices capture changes in fuel (live and dead plant material) moistures, and thus scale to fuel consumption34 and pyrogenic emission production5.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [34] Brown, J. K., Reinhardt, E. D. & Fischer, W. C. Predicting Duff and Woody fuel consumption in Northern Idaho prescribed fires. For. Sci. 37, 1550–1566 (1991).
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [5] van der Werf, G. R. et al. Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6, 3423–3441 (2006). source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationClimatic changes are expected to increase fire season severity over the coming decades.
“Climatic changes are implicated in global fire variations23 and are expected to increase fire season severity over the coming decades24.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [24] Flannigan, M. et al. Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century. For. Ecol. Manag. 294, 54–61 (2013). source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenFire weather season length imperfectly scales with actual fire activity because fires may not be ignited, there may be no available fuel, or they may be suppressed by humans.
“Fire weather season length imperfectly scales with actual fire activity because fires may not be ignited, there may be no available fuel, or they may be suppressed by humans.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationHigh inter-annual variability in Australian fire seasons reflects climate modes such as ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole, which can influence inter-annual rainfall variations and affect wildfire potential throughout Australia.
“Such high inter-annual variability reflects climate modes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole, which can heavily influence inter-annual rainfall variations and subsequently affect wildfire potential throughout Australia6162.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [6162]
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationLonger fire seasons prolong conducive burning conditions, potentially expanding areas susceptible to escaped deforestation fires and strengthening feedbacks in regional climate-fire dynamics.
“Longer fire seasons prolong conducive burning conditions, potentially expanding areas susceptible to escaped deforestation fires59 and subsequently strengthening feedbacks in regional climate-fire dynamics60.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [59] Cochrane, M. A. & Barber, C. P. Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon. Glob. Change Biol. 15, 601–612 (2009). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [60] Cochrane, M. A. Fire science for rainforests. Nature 421, 913–919 (2003). source
Not checked in the free run.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationOver the last several decades, the US has witnessed a marked increase in large wildfire frequency and duration, with the greatest increases observed in the temperate coniferous forests of the Northern Rocky Mountains.
“Over the last several decades, the US has witnessed a marked increase in large wildfire frequency and duration with the greatest increases observed in the temperate coniferous forests of the Northern Rocky Mountains5354.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5354]
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThese US trends are widely attributed to shifts towards earlier snowmelt timing, warming-driven increases in vapour pressure deficit, and variability in the timing of spring precipitation.
“These trends are widely attributed to shifts towards earlier snowmelt timing54, though fire activity in the desert Southwest has also been attributed to warming-driven increases in vapour pressure deficit55 and variability in the timing of spring precipitation56.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [54] Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R. & Swetnam, T. W. Warming and earlier spring increase Western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313, 940–943 (2006). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [55] Williams, A. P. et al. Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 292–297 (2013). source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [56] Holden, Z. A., Morgan, P., Crimmins, M. A., Steinhorst, R. K. & Smith, A. M. S. Fire season precipitation variability influences fire extent and severity in a large southwestern wilderness area, United States. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L16708 (2007). source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationGlobal fire regimes are the combined results of available fuel, ignition sources and conducive fire weather.
“Global fire regimes are the combined results of available fuel, ignition sources and conducive fire weather10.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [10] Moritz, M. A., Morais, M. E., Summerell, L. A., Carlson, J. M. & Doyle, J. Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 17912–17917 (2005). source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningThe weak correlation between fire weather season metrics and Canadian boreal forest burned area may be caused by averaging across large zonal and meridional climatic gradients across the country.
“This may be caused by averaging across the large zonal and meridional climatic gradients across the country.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationFire danger indices are based on daily surface weather variables that are related to the ignitability, spread rate and control difficulty of an initiating wildland fire.
“All are based on daily surface weather variables that are related to the ignitability, spread rate and the control difficulty of an initiating wildland fire31 and they are closely related to the magnitude and extent of fire activity3233.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] Wotton, B. M. Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research applications. Environ. Ecol. Stat. 16, 107–131 (2009). source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningIf these trends continue, increased wildfire potential may have pronounced global socio-economic, ecological and climate system impacts.
“If these trends continue, increased wildfire potential may have pronounced global socio-economic, ecological and climate system impacts.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningThis study may improve our ability to explore the complex drivers of global fire activity by isolating the climate-induced variations in fire potential from changes in fuel availability or ignitions.
“In addition, this study may improve our ability to explore the complex drivers of global fire activity by isolating the climate-induced variations in fire potential from changes in either fuel availability or human and nature-caused ignitions, which lead to the realized burned area and subsequent fire emissions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small.
“We assumed that diurnal variations in actual vapour pressure are small and thus daily mean actual vapour pressure was calculated from the NCEP data using mean daily specific humidity and surface pressure65, and saturation vapour pressure was calculated from daily maximum and minimum temperature to calculate daily maximum and minimum relative humidity.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The length of the fire-weather season (days with fire danger metrics above their median values) has increased by nearly 20% from 1970 to 2013.
“The length of the fire-weather season (days with fire danger metrics above their median values) has increased by nearly 20% from 1970 to 2013 (Jolly et al., 2015).”
From Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers (2020) · cites this paper as Jolly et al., 2015
The Results section, “Global fire weather season length trends” (page not provided), reports an 18.7% increase, but from 1979 to 2013—not 1970 to 2013. The paper defines the season using days when fire danger exceeds half its value range, not days when the metrics exceed their median values. (LLM, conf=0.91)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the western United States, evidence indicates that warming and drying, including from human-caused climate change, are associated with more frequent and larger fires and longer fire seasons.
“In the western United States, there is strong evidence that regional warming and drying, including that directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, are linked to increased fire frequency and size and longer fire seasons (5–9).”
From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [9]
Climate change has lengthened the fire-weather season over most of the world, including parts of the US, by roughly two weeks in the last thirty years.
“Observations suggest that climate change has extended the duration of the fire weather season across most of the globe, including parts of the United States by a couple of weeks over the past three decades (5, 9)”
From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [9]
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Biophysical feedback of global forest fires on surface temperature
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Human–environmental drivers and impacts of the globally extreme 2017 Chilean fires
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Self-citationWildfire risk as a socioecological pathology
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Self-citationERA5-based global meteorological wildfire danger maps
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Scientists’ warning on wildfire — a Canadian perspective
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Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics
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The role of fire in global forest loss dynamics
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“Climate influences several aspects of the fire regime, including the seasonal timing of lightning ignitions (Veraver-beke et al., 2017), temperature and moisture controls on fuel drying, and wind-driven fire spread (Jolly et al., 2015).”
How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire regimes
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Fire Refugia: What Are They, and Why Do They Matter for Global Change?
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- Authors
- Jolly, W. M., Cochrane, M. A., Freeborn, P. H., Holden, Z. A., Brown, T. J., Williamson, G. J., & Bowman, D. M. J. S.
- Affiliations
- US Forest Service (US)
- South Dakota State University (US)
- Desert Research Institute (US)
- University of Tasmania (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Jolly, W. Matt
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2015-07-14
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 7537-7537
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4803474
- OpenAlex
- W1955806497
- Semantic Scholar
- ec1042bf879f6cc5e38af99254c4bfac81640040
- Cited by
- 2,200
- References
- 66
- Citations by year
- 2026: 272 · 2025: 294 · 2024: 238 · 2023: 272 · 2022: 299 · 2021: 223 · 2020: 173 · 2019: 149 · 2018: 124 · 2017: 76 · 2016: 66 · 2015: 10 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 75.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (NNH11ZDA001N)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNH11ZDA001N-FIRES, NNX11AB89G, NNH11ZDA001N)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Science Mission Directorate
- NASA Headquarters
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Keywords
- wildfire danger, fire weather, climate change, fire danger index, spatiotemporal trends, pyrogeography, vegetation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-06.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-06.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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