Climate projections: Past performance no guarantee of future skill?

Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis

Houghton, J., Ding, Y., Griggs, D., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. V. D., Dai, X., Maskell, K., & Johnson, C. (2001) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20033020 · Cited by 14,162

Untitled work

(2007) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 9,612

Climate Change 2007

Change, I. P. O. C. (2007) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511546013 · Cited by 7,742

Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850

Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., & Jones, P. D. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006548 · Cited by 2,040

The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections

Tebaldi, C., & Knutti, R. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2076 · Cited by 1,862

Improving the Detection and Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

Camargo, S. J., & Zebiak, S. E. (2002) · Weather and Forecasting · doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017 · Cited by 173

Constraints on climate change from a multi‐thousand member ensemble of simulations

Piani, C., Frame, D. J., Stainforth, D. A., & Allen, M. R. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl024452 · Cited by 152

Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models.

Whetton, P., Macadam, I., Bathols, J., & O'Grady, J. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl030025 · Cited by 104 · cited 2×

Climate model fidelity and projections of climate change

Shukla, J., DelSole, T., Fennessy, M. J., Kinter, J. L., & Paolino, D. A. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl025579 · Cited by 88

Comparison of observed and multimodeled trends in annual extremes of temperature and precipitation

Kiktev, D. B., Caesar, J., Alexander, L. V., Shiogama, H., & Collier, M. A. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl029539 · Cited by 73

A novel method to improve temperature simulations of general circulation models based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition and its application to multi-model ensembles

Zhang, X., & Yan, X. (2014) · Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.3402/tellusa.v66.24846 · Cited by 10

A new method of multi‐model ensemble to improve the simulation of the geographic distribution of the Köppen–Geiger climatic types

Wang, L., Rohli, R. V., Yan, X., & Li, Y. (2017) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.5150 · Cited by 9

Risk-based flood protection planning under climate change and modeling uncertainty: a pre-alpine case study

Dittes, B., Kaiser, M. K., Špačková, O., Rieger, W., Disse, M., & Straub, D. (2018) · Natural hazards and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-18-1327-2018 · Cited by 9

Managing climate change scenarios for societal impact studies

Carbone, G. J. (2014) · Physical Geography · doi:10.1080/02723646.2013.869714 · Cited by 9

On judging the credibility of climate predictions

Otto, F. E. L., Ferro, C. A. T., Fricker, T. E., & Suckling, E. B. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0813-5 · Cited by 9

Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Systems and Implications for Decision-Makers

Adeloye, A. J., Nawaz, N. R., & Bellerby, T. J. (2013) · American Society of Civil Engineers eBooks · doi:10.1061/9780784412718.ch11 · Cited by 9

Towards Bayesian hierarchical inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity from a combination of CMIP5 climate models and observational data

Jonko, A., Urban, N. M., & Nadiga, B. T. (2018) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2232-0 · Cited by 9

A non-stationary bias adjustment method for improving the inter-annual variability and persistence of projected precipitation

Cantalejo, M., Cobos, M., Millares, A., & Baquerizo, A. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-76848-2 · Cited by 9

An ensemble-based assessment of bias adjustment performance, changes in hydrometeorological predictors and compound extreme events in EAS-CORDEX

Olschewski, P., Laux, P., Wei, J., Böker, B., Tian, Z., Sun, L., & Kunstmann, H. G. (2022) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100531 · Cited by 9

Weights for general circulation models from CMIP3/CMIP5 in a statistical downscaling framework and the impact on future Mediterranean precipitation

Kaspar‐Ott, I., Hertig, E., Kaspar, S., Pollinger, F., Ring, C., Paeth, H., & Jacobeit, J. (2019) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.6045 · Cited by 7

Towards an objective assessment of climate multi-model ensembles – a case study: the Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling region

Mignot, J., Mejía, C., Sorror, C., Sylla, A., Crépon, M., & Thiria, S. (2020) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-13-2723-2020 · Cited by 8

Ranking of Global Climate Models for Godavari and Krishna River Basins, India, Using Compromise Programming

Raju, K. S., Kumar, D. N., & Naga Babu, I. (2016) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-10-2051-3_4 · Cited by 6

Criteria to evaluate the validity of multi‐model ensemble methods

Zhang, X., & Yan, X. (2018) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.5486 · Cited by 6

Climate prediction via matrix completion

Ghafarianzadeh, M., & Monteleoni, C. (2013) · National Conference on Artificial Intelligence · Cited by 6

Uncertainties and confidence in stratospheric aerosol injection modelling: a systematic literature review

Määttänen, A., Lameille, T., Klöck, C., Boucher, O., & Ravetta, F. (2024) · Oxford Open Climate Change · doi:10.1093/oxfclm/kgae007 · Cited by 8

Ensemble mean forecast skill and applications with the T213 ensemble prediction system

Li, S., Wang, Y., Yuan, H., Song, J., & Xu, X. Y. (2016) · Advances in Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1007/s00376-016-6155-2 · Cited by 5

High-resolution climate datasets in hydrological impact studies: Assessing their value in alpine and pre-alpine catchments in southeastern Austria

Peßenteiner, S., Hohmann, C., Kirchengast, G., & Schöner, W. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100962 · Cited by 5

Exploring the Potential of Multi-Hydrological Model Weighting Schemes to Reduce Uncertainty in Runoff Projections

Ersoy, Z. B., Fıstıkoğlu, O., & Okkan, U. (2025) · Water · doi:10.3390/w17202919 · Cited by 4

Chances of Short-Term Cooling Estimated from a Selection of CMIP5-Based Climate Scenarios during 2006–35 over Canada

Grenier, P., de Elía, R., & Chaumont, D. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00224.1 · Cited by 4

Narrowing the surface temperature range in CMIP5 simulations over the Arctic

Hao, M., Huang, J., Luo, Y. M., Chen, X., Lin, Y., Zhao, Z., & Xu, Y. (2017) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2161-2 · Cited by 4

Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design a cost-effective and equitable programme of measures for adaptation of a river basin to global change.

Girard, C. (2015) · doi:10.4995/thesis/10251/59461 · Cited by 4

Climate and Water Resources in the Carolinas: Approaches to Applying Global Climate Change Information to Local Decisions

Lackstrom, K., Carbone, G. J., Tufford, D. L., & Patel, A. (2016) · Journal of South Carolina water resources · doi:10.34068/jscwr.03.06 · Cited by 3

European wind storms, related loss potentials and changes in multi-model climate simulations

Donat, M. G. (2010) · Universitätsbibliothek der FU Berlin Hochschulschriftenstelle u. Dokumentenserver · doi:10.17169/refubium-10389 · Cited by 3

A Flashforward to Today Made in the Past: Evaluating 25-Year-Old Projections of Precipitation and Temperature over West Africa

Gaba, O. U., Gaba, Y. U., & Diekkrüger, B. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su141912093 · Cited by 2

Which Climate Model Evaluation Methods Can Consistently Select Skillful Models from the CMIP6 Ensemble?

Gnatiuk, N. V., Radchenko, I., Davy, R., Zhao, J., & Bobylev, L. (2025) · GEOGRAPHY ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINABILITY · doi:10.24057/2071-9388-2025-3694 · Cited by 2

BMA probabilistic forecasting of the 500hPa geopotential height over Northern Hemisphere using TIGGE multimodel ensemble forecasts

Zhi, X., & Ji, L. (2018) · AIP conference proceedings · doi:10.1063/1.5045425 · Cited by 2

From Many to One: Consensus Inference in a MIP

Cressie, N., Bertolacci, M., & Zammit‐Mangion, A. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl098277 · Cited by 2

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in Observations and in a Large Historical Multimodel Ensemble: Forced and Internal Variability

Christiansen, B., Yang, S., & Drews, A. (2025) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-24-0310.1 · Cited by 1

On the Concept of Climate-Resilient Design of Civil Infrastructure Systems

Laskar, J. I., & Dutta, S. (2024) · Lecture notes in civil engineering · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-63276-1_9 · Cited by 1

Reducing the Uncertainty in the Tropical Precipitation through a Multi‐Criteria Decision‐Making Approach

Majhi, A., Dhanya, C. T., Pattanayak, S., & Chakma, S. (2024) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.8665 · Cited by 1

Future Drought

Lanen, H. A. J. V., Prudhomme, C., Wanders, N., & Huijgevoort, M. H. J. V. (2018) · doi:10.1002/9781119017073.ch4 · Cited by 1

Aerosol modelling: Improving the understanding of aerosol processes and their effects on the climate at process and global-scale

Holopainen, E. (2023) · doi:10.35614/isbn.9789523361690 · Cited by 1

Identifying Coherence Across End-of-Century Montane Snow Projections in the Western United StatesPreprint

Pflug, J. M., Kumar, S. V., Livneh, B., Gutmann, E. D., Gangrade, S., & Kao, S. (2023) · doi:10.22541/essoar.169203069.91400498/v1 · Cited by 1

Impacts of climate change on thermal stratification and water quality of ReservoirsPreprint

Najari, S., & Heidarzadeh, N. (2024) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3917984/v1 · Cited by 1

Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments

O’Reilly, J., Brysse, K., Oppenheimer, M., & Орескес, Н. (2011)

On the Number of Effective Climate Models

Pennell, C., & Reichler, T. J. (2010)

Improving Climate Projections Through the Assessment of Model Uncertainty and Bias in the Global Water Cycle

Baker, N. C. (2013)

An Enhanced Approach on Projections on Climate and Land Analysis using ARIMA Modelling

Namratha, V., & BANGALORE, U. (2020) · International Journal of Engineering Research and · doi:10.17577/ijertv9is070507

High-Resolution Gridded Climate Dataset for Data-Scarce Region

Nashwan, M. S. (2020) · doi:10.13140/rg.2.2.20199.78244

Estimating the gain of increasing the ensemble size from analytical considerations

Christiansen, B. (2024) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.4815

How Ominous is the Premonition of Future Global Warming?

Chatterjee, D., & Bhattacharya, S. (2025) · Sankhya B · doi:10.1007/s13571-025-00390-y

Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design a cost-effective and equitable programme of measures for adaptation of a river basin to global change.

Girard, C. (2015) · doi:10.70675/2008563cz7ff9z4c16za540za4dbff1ea6d5

Les impacts du changement climatique sur les pluies et les inondations extrêmes de bassins versants méso-échelles méditerranéens

Colmet-Daage, A. (2018) · doi:10.70675/53d3f42fz2f93z416dzb006ze27e41c9d366

When hot nights will not allow to relax: Projections of co-occurring extreme heat events over Central Europe under policy-relevant global warming levels

Szabó, A. I., Holtanová, E., & Belda, M. (2026) · Climate Services · doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100721

Global Model selection for evaluation of Climate Change projections in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Seascape

Hidalgo, H. G., & Alfaro, E. J. (2017) · Revista de Biología Tropical · doi:10.15517/rbt.v60i3.28340 · Cited by 10

Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections

Hausfather, Z., Drake, H. F., Abbott, T. H., & Schmidt, G. A. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl085378 · Cited by 238

How reliable are climate models?

Räisänen, J. (2007) · Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.3402/tellusa.v59i1.14859 · Cited by 356

To What Extent Does Discounting ‘Hot’ Climate Models Improve the Predictive Skill of Climate Model Ensembles?

McDonnell, A., Bauer, A. M., & Proistosescu, C. (2024) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2024ef004844 · Cited by 6

Does discounting 'hot' climate models improve the predictive skill of climate model ensembles?Preprint

McDonnell, A., Bauer, A. M., & Proistosescu, C. (2024) · doi:10.22541/essoar.171632441.12099637/v1