Observation of decadal change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation using 10 years of continuous transport data: DECADAL ATLANTIC MOC OBSERVATIONS
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[1] The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) represents the main mechanism for the oceanic northward heat transport in the Atlantic, and fluctuations of this circulation are believed to have major impacts on northern hemisphere climate. While numerical ocean and climate models and paleo-records show large variability in this circulation, the use of direct observations of the MOC for detecting climate-timescale changes has proven difficult so far. This report presents the first observational record of MOC measurements that is continuous and sufficiently long to exhibit decadal-scale changes, here a decrease by 20% over the observational period (Jan. 2000–June 2009) and large interannual changes in the flow and its vertical structure. Data are from a mooring array at 16°N (Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment, MOVE). The observed change agrees with the amplitude of multi-decadal natural fluctuations seen in numerical ocean and climate models. Knowledge of the existence and phasing of such internal cycles provides multi-decadal climate predictability. Recently, some numerical model simulations have produced results that show a weakening of the MOC since the 1990's and observational confirmation of this now is a high priority.
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Since 2000, a mooring array has been maintained at 16N that includes velocity measurements covering the DWBC east of Guadeloupe and additional geostrophic moorings measuring the deep flow between the continental slope and the mid-Atlantic ridge.
“Since 2000, a mooring array has been maintained at 16 • N that includes velocity measurements covering the DWBC east of Guadeloupe and additional geostrophic moorings measuring the deep flow between the continental slope and the mid-Atlantic ridge (Send et al., 2011;Frajka-Williams et al., 2018).”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Send et al., 2011
The Observations section describes a nearly 10-year continuous MOVE mooring record at 16°N, with current-meter measurements near the continental slope and geostrophic measurements across a 1000 km section. The Figure 1 caption places the moorings between the coast and Mid-Atlantic Ridge and depicts the deep western boundary current. Our copy does not explicitly establish the exact start year of 2000 or locate the boundary-current measurements east of Guadeloupe; page numbers were not available. (LLM, conf=0.82)
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McCarthy, G., Menary, M. B., Mecking, J., Moat, B. I., Johns, W. E., Andrews, M. B., Rayner, D., & Smeed, D. A. (2016) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1002/2016jc012200 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Toward an integrated pantropical ocean observing system
Foltz, G., Eddebbar, Y., Sprintall, J., Capotondi, A., Cravatte, S., Brandt, P., Sutton, A., Morris, T., Hermes, J., McMahon, C. R., et al. (2025) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2025.1539183 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Delman, A., & Landerer, F. W. (2022) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs14071764 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
From theory to RAPID AMOC observations: a personal voyage of discovery
Marotzke, J. (2023) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2022.0192 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Routine Reversal of the AMOC in an Ocean Model Ensemble
Dewar, W. K., Parfitt, R., & Wienders, N. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl100117 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Dynamics of North Atlantic western boundary currents
Bras, I. A.-A. L. (2017) · doi:10.1575/1912/8657 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Uncertainty of North Atlantic Current observations from altimetry, floats, moorings, and XBT
Lankhorst, M., & Send, U. (2020) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102402 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Self-citationXing, Q., Elipot, S., Johns, W. E., Smeed, D. A., Moat, B. I., & Loder, J. W. (2026) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adz7738 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Gokhan Danabasoglu, C., Castruccio, F. S., Boza, B., Barthel, A. M., Arne Biastoch, B., Blaker, A. T., Bozec, A., Bruciaferri, D., Bryan, F. O., Chassignet, E. P., et al. (2026) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-19-5071-2026 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Topographic Effects on Seasonal Variations of the North Atlantic Deep Water Transport
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Conductors of the Current Variations of the Sea-Surface Temperature of the North Atlantic
Vakulenko, N. V., & Sonechkin, D. M. (2019) · Oceanology · doi:10.1134/s0001437019060225 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Yang, X., & Cessi, P. (2023) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/jpo-d-23-0010.1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Shihora, L., Martin, T., Hans, A. C., Hummels, R., Schindelegger, M., & Dobslaw, H. (2025) · Ocean science · doi:10.5194/os-21-1533-2025 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Kanzow, T., Visbeck, M. H., & Krebs‐Kanzow, U. (2015) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-63524-2.00017-8
Self-citationCoherent changes of the circulation in the deep North Atlantic from moored transport arraysPreprint
Frajka-Williams, E. E., Lankhorst, M., Koelling, J., & Send, U. (2016) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1610.06708
Self-citation(2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-877-rc2
(2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-877-rc1
(2021) · Ocean science · doi:10.5194/os-2021-37-rc1
Handmann, P., Visbeck, M. H., & Kanzow, T. (2021) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-821575-3.00012-8
Self-citationAuthor Comment (AC) on acp-2021-877
Xie, M. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-877-ac1
Arne Biastoch, B. (2021) · Ocean science · doi:10.5194/os-2021-37-ac1
Arne Biastoch, B. (2021) · Ocean science · doi:10.5194/os-2021-37-ac2
(2021) · Ocean science · doi:10.5194/os-2021-37-rc2
Wei, H., Srinivasan, K., Stewart, A. L., Solodoch, A., Manucharyan, G. E., & Hogg, A. M. (2025) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2024ms004915
Handmann, P., Bras, I. A.-A. L., & Visbeck, M. H. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-32838-1.00001-1
Monitoring Labrador Current Transport Variability With Satellite Gravity
Meyer, J., & Chambers, D. P. (2025) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1029/2025jc023291
A Sea‐Ice‐Enhanced KPP Parameterization: Impacts on AMOC Simulation and Physical Pathways
Tseng, Y., & Wang, Y. (2026) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1029/2025jc023767
Western boundary currents; Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Volkov, D. L., Chomiak, L., Dong, S., Goes, M., & Perez, R. (2026) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-15748-6.00064-2
- Authors
- Send, U., Lankhorst, M., & Kanzow, T.
- Affiliations
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (DE)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2011-12-24
- Volume
- 38
- Issue
- 24
- Pages
- n/a-n/a
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1607852544
- Cited by
- 97
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 15 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 3.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Keywords
- Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, decadal variability, mooring array, interannual variability, multidecadal variability, ocean heat transport, climate predictability
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