The DOI matches its Crossref record; 1 of the 1 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models
Abstract
Three years ago we proposed that the summer Arctic would be nearly sea ice free by the 2030s; “nearly” is interpreted as sea ice extent less than 1.0 million km 2. We consider this estimate to be still valid based on projections of updated climate models (CMIP5) and observational data. Similar to previous models (CMIP3), CMIP5 still shows a wide spread in hindcast and projected sea ice loss among different models. Further, there is no consensus in the scientific literature for the cause of such a spread in results for CMIP3 and CMIP5. While CMIP5 model mean sea ice extents are closer to observations than CMIP3, the rates of sea ice reduction in most model runs are slow relative to recent observations. All CMIP5 models do show loss of sea ice due to increased anthropogenic forcing relative to pre‐industrial control runs. Applying the same technique of model selection and extrapolation approach to CMIP5 as we used in our previous paper, the interval range for a nearly sea ice free Arctic is 14 to 36 years, with a median value of 28 years. Relative to a 2007 baseline, this suggests a nearly sea ice free Arctic in the 2030s.
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Cites
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., et al. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08823 · Cited by 6,467
Cited by
Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing CO2
Dai, A., Luo, D., Song, M., & Liu, J. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07954-9 · Cited by 659
Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation
McKenzie, R. L., Aucamp, P. J., Bais, A. F., Björn, L. O., Ilyas, M., & Madronich, S. (2011) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1039/c0pp90034f · Cited by 609
When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free?
Overland, J. E., & Wang, M. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50316 · Cited by 554
Self-citationEcosystem services in the Arctic: a thematic review
Malinauskaite, L., Cook, D., Davíðsdóttir, B., Ögmundardóttir, H., & Roman, J. (2019) · Ecosystem Services · doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.100898 · Cited by 93
Metadata
- Authors
- Wang, M., & Overland, J. E.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2012-09
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- 18
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1888180832
- Cited by
- 422
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 21.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
