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Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model
Open accessAbstract
We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys, and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses, and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization, and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05 °C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15 °C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date) and conclude with 87% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).
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Metadata
- Authors
- Lenssen, N. J. L., Schmidt, G. A., Hansen, J. E., Menne, M. J., Persin, A., Ruedy, R., & Zyss, D.
- Affiliations
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lenssen, Nathan J. L.
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-06-24
- Volume
- 124
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 6307-6326
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-897X
- 2169-8996
- OpenAlex
- W2946160190
- Cited by
- 962
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 65 · 2025: 101 · 2024: 153 · 2023: 159 · 2022: 162 · 2021: 189 · 2020: 114 · 2019: 18
- FWCI
- 62.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (NSF DGE 16-44869)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- surface temperature anomalies, uncertainty analysis, instrumental temperature records, station homogenization, station coverage, ocean data processing, systematic bias, land cover change
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