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Cited by 962Climate variability and modelsUrban Heat Island MitigationClimate Change and Environmental Impact

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 48 of the 48 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model

Open access
Lenssen, Nathan J. L., Schmidt, Gavin A., Hansen, James E., Menne, Matthew J., Persin, Avraham, Ruedy, Reto, Zyss, Daniel·2019·Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
DOI 10.1029/2018jd029522
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Abstract

We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys, and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses, and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization, and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05 °C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15 °C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date) and conclude with 87% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).

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Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. Ishihara K., 2006, Calculation of global surface temperature anomalies with COBE‐SST, Weather Service Bulletin, 73, S19—S25
  2. 10.4172/2327-4581.1000103 · DOI · Paper page

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Metadata

Authors
Lenssen, N. J. L., Schmidt, G. A., Hansen, J. E., Menne, M. J., Persin, A., Ruedy, R., & Zyss, D.
Affiliations
  • Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
  • Columbia University (US)
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
Corresponding author
Lenssen, Nathan J. L.
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published
2019-06-24
Volume
124
Issue
12
Pages
6307-6326
ISSN
  • 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
  • 2169-897X
  • 2169-8996
DOI
10.1029/2018jd029522
OpenAlex
W2946160190
Cited by
962
References
48
Citations by year
2026: 65 · 2025: 101 · 2024: 153 · 2023: 159 · 2022: 162 · 2021: 189 · 2020: 114 · 2019: 18
FWCI
62.15
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
  • NOAA Institutional Repository (publishedVersion)
Funders
National Science Foundation (NSF DGE 16-44869)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords
surface temperature anomalies, uncertainty analysis, instrumental temperature records, station homogenization, station coverage, ocean data processing, systematic bias, land cover change

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