The DOI matches its Crossref record; 48 of the 48 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model
Open accessAbstract
We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys, and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses, and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization, and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05 °C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15 °C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date) and conclude with 87% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing
R Core Team (2000) · doi:10.32614/r.manuals · Cited by 355,893
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A. M., Takacs, L. L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R. H., et al. (2017) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0758.1 · Cited by 9,261
The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi, K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., et al. (2015) · Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Ser II · doi:10.2151/jmsj.2015-001 · Cited by 4,768
Huang, B., Thorne, P., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G. A., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne, M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose, R. S., & Zhang, H. (2017) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0836.1 · Cited by 3,245
Self-citationGlobal surface temperature change
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., & Lo, K. (2010) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2010rg000345 · Cited by 3,081 · cited 8×
“As shown in Hansen et al. (2010), the effect of the urban adjustment on global temperature change is on the order of 0.01 ◦C.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationProcesses and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis
Serreze, M. C., & Barry, R. G. (2011) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004 · Cited by 2,752
Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather
Cohen, J. L., Screen, J. A., Furtado, J. C., Barlow, M., Whittleston, D. P., Coumou, D., Francis, J. A., Dethloff, K., Entekhabi, D., Overland, J. E., et al. (2014) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2234 · Cited by 2,613
Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., & Jones, P. D. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006548 · Cited by 2,040
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., & Jones, P. D. (2012) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2011jd017187 · Cited by 1,657
Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Hansen, J. E., Johnson, D., Lacis, A. A., Lebedeff, S. A., Lee, P., Rind, D. H., & Russell, G. L. (1981) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.213.4511.957 · Cited by 1,074
Self-citation
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Ishihara K., 2006, Calculation of global surface temperature anomalies with COBE‐SST, Weather Service Bulletin, 73, S19—S25
- 10.4172/2327-4581.1000103 · DOI · Paper page
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 301–400 of 961
Physical Diagnosis of the 2016 Great Barrier Reef Bleaching Event
Karnauskas, K. B. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl086177 · Cited by 18
“Surface or 2‐m air temperature data sets include the ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5, 1982– 2018, monthly, 0.25°) (Hersbach et al., 2019) and the NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 (GISTEMP, 1880–2018, monthly, 2°) (Lenssen et al., 2019).”
MethodInfluentialObservations of planetary heating since the 1980s from multiple independent datasets
Allison, L. C., Palmer, M. D., Allan, R. P., Hermanson, L., Liu, C., & Smith, D. M. (2020) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/abbb39 · Cited by 18
“Estimates of GMST are better constrained by the available observations than those ofGOHC, butwe follow a similar approach in deriving a time series of observedGMST (1986–2018) as themean of three products: HadCRUT4 (Morice et al 2012), GISTEMP (Lenssen et al 2019) andNOAAGlobalTemp (Jones et al 1999).”
MethodHirano, A. (2021) · Paddy and Water Environment · doi:10.1007/s10333-021-00842-x · Cited by 18
A combined estimate of global temperature
Craigmile, P. F., & Guttorp, P. M. (2021) · Environmetrics · doi:10.1002/env.2706 · Cited by 18
“The US National Aeronautical and Space Administration Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) use a finer grid with 8000 equal area grid cells, and compute the grid cell averages by distance weighted averaging (Hansen et al., 2010; Lenssen et al., 2019).”
MethodWereszczuk, A., Hofmeester, T. R., Csanády, A., Dumić, T., Elmeros, M., Lanszki, J., Madsen, A. B., Müskens, G. J. D. M., Papakosta, M. A., Popiołek, M., et al. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-03531-1 · Cited by 18
Harrington, L. J., Wolski, P., Pinto, I., Ramarosandratana, A. M., Barimalala, R., Vautard, R., Philip, S. Y., Kew, S., Singh, R., Heinrich, D., et al. (2022) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/aca695 · Cited by 18
Characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere cold regions changes from 1901 to 2019
Huang, Y., Zhang, L., Li, Y., Ren, C., Pan, T., Zhang, W.-S., Zhang, F., Li, C., Gu, J., & Liu, J. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-30263-1 · Cited by 18
An attribution study of very intense rainfall events in Eastern Northeast Brazil
Júnior, F. D. C. V., Zachariah, M., Silva, T. L. D. V., Santos, E., Coelho, C. A. S., Alves, L. M., Martins, E. S. P. R., Köberle, A. C., Singh, R., Vahlberg, M., et al. (2024) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2024.100699 · Cited by 21
Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations
Sippel, S., Kent, E. C., Meinshausen, N., Chan, D., Kadow, C., Neukom, R., Fischer, E. M., Humphrey, V., Rohde, R. A., de Vries, I. E., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08230-1 · Cited by 18
Global mean thermosteric sea level projections by 2100 in CMIP6 climate models
Jevrejeva, S., Palanisamy, H., & Jackson, L. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abceea · Cited by 18
Berry, L. N., & Helwig, N. E. (2021) · Stats · doi:10.3390/stats4030042 · Cited by 18
“Our first example uses global land–ocean temperature data, which are freely available from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies [49,50].”
MethodXavier, C., Baykara, M., de Jonge, R. W., Altstädter, B., Clusius, P. S., Vakkari, V., Thakur, R. C., Beck, L., Becagli, S., Severi, M., et al. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-22-10023-2022 · Cited by 18
Footprint of Tropical Mesoscale Convective System Variability on Stratospheric Water Vapor
Dong, W., Lin, Y., Zhang, M., & Huang, X. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl086320 · Cited by 17
Evaluation of WRF-Chem Predictions for Dust Deposition in Southwestern Iran
Foroushani, M. A., Opp, C., Groll, M., & Nikfal, A. (2020) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos11070757 · Cited by 17
LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF RUSSIA AND THE ROLE OF FORESTS IN ITS IMPLEM ENTATION
Shvarts, E. A., & Владимирович, П. А. (2022) · Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society of Russia · doi:10.38197/2072-2060-2022-236-4-399-426 · Cited by 17
Anthropogenic Influence on Temperature Change in China over the Period 1901–2018
Yin, H. F., & Sun, Y. (2022) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0122.1 · Cited by 17
Accelerated methane emission from permafrost regions since the 20th century
Xie, G., Zhang, L., Li, C., & Sun, W. (2023) · Deep Sea Research Part I Oceanographic Research Papers · doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2023.103981 · Cited by 17
Anthropogenic Weakening of the Atmospheric Circulation During the Satellite Era
Shrestha, S., & Soden, B. J. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl104784 · Cited by 17
“We used NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 (GISTEMP v4) to estimate global surface temperature change (GISTEMP Team, 2023; Lenssen et al., 2019).”
MethodEstimating trends and the current climate mean in a changing climate
Scherrer, S. C., de Valk, C., Begert, M., Gubler, S., Kotlarski, S., & Croci‐Maspoli, M. (2023) · Climate Services · doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100428 · Cited by 17
Lapham, L., Dallimore, S. R., Magen, C., Henderson, L. C., Powers, L. C., Gonsior, M. J., Clark, B., Côté, M. M., Fraser, P., & Orcutt, B. N. (2020) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2020.582103 · Cited by 17
Diversity in the Persistence of El Niño Events Over the Last Millennium
Sanchez, S. C., & Karnauskas, K. B. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2021gl093698 · Cited by 18
“We also analyze observed surface temperature anomalies with the NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 (GISTEMP4; Hansen et al., 2010; Lenssen et al., 2019), a 2° gridded monthly product covering 1880–present.”
MethodImpact of climate change on seismicity:a statistical approach
Maji, C., Sadhukhan, B., Mukherjee, S., Khutia, S., & Chaudhuri, H. (2021) · Arabian Journal of Geosciences · doi:10.1007/s12517-021-08946-8 · Cited by 17
“The annual global mean temperature anomaly data have been collected from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) database (Lenssen et al., 2019).”
MethodCould detection and attribution of climate change trends be spurious regression?
Cummins, D. P., Stephenson, D. B., & Stott, P. A. (2022) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06242-z · Cited by 20
Marsz, A. A., Sobkowiak, L., Styszyńska, A., & Wrzesiński, D. (2022) · Quaestiones Geographicae · doi:10.14746/quageo-2022-0033 · Cited by 17
Wu, B., Luo, Y., Feng, Y., Zhu, C., & Yang, P. (2023) · Fuel · doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2023.127817 · Cited by 16
Lessons Learned from the Updated GEWEX Cloud Assessment Database
Stubenrauch, C. J., Kinne, S., Mandorli, G., Rossow, W. B., Winker, D. M. M., Ackerman, S. A., Chepfer, H., Girolamo, L. D., Garnier, A. E., Heidinger, A. K., et al. (2024) · Surveys in Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s10712-024-09824-0 · Cited by 16
The Benefits of Continuous Local Regression for Quantifying Global Warming
Clarke, D. C., & Richardson, M. (2021) · Earth and Space Science · doi:10.1029/2020ea001082 · Cited by 16
“NASA GISTEMP v4 (Lenssen et al., 2019) GHCNv4 ERSSTv5 Distance weighting (to 1,200 km) 80 zones x 100 subboxes 1880”
BackgroundBoreal Winter Surface Air Temperature Responses to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in CMIP5 Models
Xing, C., Liu, F., Wang, B., Chen, D., Liu, J., & Liu, B. (2019) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0186.1 · Cited by 16
Ninneman, M., & Jaffe, D. A. (2021) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos12101235 · Cited by 17
Asymmetric trends of extreme temperature over the Loess Plateau during 1998–2018
Ding, Z., Pu, J., Meng, L., Lu, R., Wang, Y., Li, Y., Dong, Y., & Wang, S. (2020) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.6798 · Cited by 15
“The global mean surface air temperature (GMST) continued to rise along with the enhance of anthropogenic activity since the 1960s, it has increased linearly from 1961 to 2018 by 0.81 C (Lenssen et al., 2019).”
BackgroundInfluentialMaßling, A., Lange, R. G., Pernov, J., Gosewinkel, U., Sørensen, L. L., & Skov, H. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-4931-2023 · Cited by 15
Space food packaging: A review of its past, present and future materials and technologies
Evans, R. (2023) · Packaging Technology and Science · doi:10.1002/pts.2752 · Cited by 15
Sewage Sludge Gasification Process Optimization for Combined Heat and Power Generation
Carotenuto, A., Fraia, S. D., Massarotti, N., Sobek, S., Uddin, M. R., Vanoli, L., & Werle, S. (2023) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en16124742 · Cited by 17
Katata, G., Connolly, R., & O’Neill, P. D. (2023) · Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology · doi:10.1175/jamc-d-22-0122.1 · Cited by 17
Historical tree phenology data reveal the seasonal rhythms of the Congo Basin rainforest
Kearsley, E., Verbeeck, H., Stoffelen, P., Janssens, S., Yakusu, E. K., Kosmala, M., Mil, T. D., Bauters, M., Kitima, E. R., Ndiapo, J. M., et al. (2024) · Plant-Environment Interactions · doi:10.1002/pei3.10136 · Cited by 17
Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century
Li, X., MANN, M. E., Wehner, M. F., & Christiansen, S. A. (2025) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2504482122 · Cited by 21
“To better understand the underlying causes for the observed increase in QRA events, we examine long - term changes in the magnitude of Arctic warming and land–sea thermal contrast during boreal summer (JJA).”
Stubenrauch, C. J., Caria, G., Protopapadaki, S. E., & Hemmer, F. (2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-21-1015-2021 · Cited by 15
Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950
Stolpe, M. B., Cowtan, K. D., Medhaug, I., & Knutti, R. (2020) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05493-y · Cited by 15
Hua, W., Dai, A., & Chen, H. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl097946 · Cited by 15
“, 2013), and GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 (Lenssen et al., 2019).”
BackgroundEvolution and Future Needs of Food Chemistry in a Changing World
Finley, J. W. (2020) · Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry · doi:10.1021/acs.jafc.9b07774 · Cited by 15
Orbital Insolation Variations, Intrinsic Climate Variability, and Quaternary GlaciationsPreprint
Riechers, K., Mitsui, T., Boers, N., & Ghil, M. (2021) · doi:10.5194/cp-2021-136 · Cited by 15
GDCM: Generalized data completion model for satellite observations
Wang, H., Zhou, Y., & Li, X. (2025) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2025.114760 · Cited by 18
The outstanding European and Mediterranean heatwave activity during summer 2022
Trigo, R. M., Barriopedro, D., Garrido‐Pérez, J. M., Simon, A., Plecha, S. M., Teles‐Machado, A., Russo, A., & García‐Herrera, R. (2025) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108195 · Cited by 18
Liu, Z., Eden, J., Dieppois, B., Conradie, S., & Blackett, M. (2023) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-22-0204.1 · Cited by 14
A Discussion of Implausible Total Solar-Irradiance Variations Since 1700
Chatzistergos, T. (2024) · Solar Physics · doi:10.1007/s11207-024-02262-6 · Cited by 14
“In Table 4 we also show the results for the GISTEMP4 (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis; Lenssen et al., 2019, covering the period 1880 – 2023) 9 and Berkeley Earth (Rohde and Hausfather, 2020, covering the period 1850 – 2023) 10 temperature series.”
Parker, D., Panchabikesan, K., Crawley, D. B., & Lawrie, L. K. (2024) · Energy and Buildings · doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2024.114828 · Cited by 14
Panchen, Z. A., Frei, E. R., & Henry, G. H. R. (2021) · Arctic Science · doi:10.1139/as-2020-0045 · Cited by 14
Lamarre, J., Gauthier, G., Lanctot, R. B., Saalfeld, S. T., Love, O. P., Reed, E. T., Johnson, O. W., Liebezeit, J., McGuire, R. L., Russell, M., et al. (2021) · Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.3389/fevo.2021.710007 · Cited by 14
Field, R. D., Andreu‐Hayles, L., D'Arrigo, R. D., Oelkers, R., Luckman, B. H., Morimoto, D., Boucher, É., Gennaretti, F., de Mendoza, I. H., Lavergne, A., et al. (2021) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05932-4 · Cited by 14
A local marine source of atmospheric particles in the High Arctic
Nøjgaard, J. K., Peker, L., Pernov, J., Johnson, M. S., Bossi, R., Maßling, A., Lange, R. G., Nielsen, I. E., Prévôt, A. S. H., Eriksson, A. C., et al. (2022) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119241 · Cited by 14
Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic
Zhang, X., Vihma, T., Rinke, A., Moore, G. W. K., Tang, H., Äijälä, C., DuVivier, A. K., Huang, J., Landrum, L., Li, C., et al. (2025) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-025-00724-4 · Cited by 15
Westerly-triggered lake-effect snowfall enhanced with climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau
Dai, Y., Wang, T., Sheng, Y., Wang, L., Chen, H., Zhang, X., Li, X., Wang, W., Wu, J., Chen, W., et al. (2024) · 中国科学通报：英文版 · doi:10.1016/j.scib.2024.01.042 · Cited by 13
Charak, A., Kumar, R., & Verma, A. K. (2024) · IDRiM Journal · doi:10.5595/001c.92642 · Cited by 15
Vasconcelos, J., Sanabria‐Fernández, J. A., Tuset, V. M., Sousa, R., Faria, G., & Riera, R. (2024) · Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries · doi:10.1007/s11160-024-09885-9 · Cited by 15
“Specifically, we used the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4) software (GIS-TEMP-Team 2020; Lenssen et al. 2019) to obtain the annual average SST. SST anomaly was calculated as the difference between the average SST over the 40-year study period and each annual average value.”
Global and regional climate in 2023
Sandford, C., Dunn, R., Titchner, H., Kendon, M., Rayner, N. A., Morice, C., Palmer, M. D., McCarthy, M., & Kaye, N. (2024) · Weather · doi:10.1002/wea.7636 · Cited by 13
Emergence of a climate oscillation in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming
Kim, S., & An, S. (2024) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02171-3 · Cited by 13
“We use four in situ surface temperature anomaly records: HadCRUT5 32 , NOAAGlobalTemp5 33 , GISTEMP4 34 and BerkeleyEarth 35 .”
InfluentialComparison of Combustion and Gasification for Energy Recovery from Residual Woody Biomass
Carotenuto, A., Fraia, S. D., Uddin, M. R., & Vanoli, L. (2022) · International Journal of Heat and Technology · doi:10.18280/ijht.400404 · Cited by 13
“62°C in the period from 1990 to 2019 [7].”
BackgroundHague, B. S. (2021) · Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science · doi:10.1071/es20009 · Cited by 13
“It was the hottest austral summer on record in the NOAA2 (Huang et al. 2020) dataset, second-highest in GISS3 (Lenssen et al. 2019) and third in the HadCRUT44 dataset, using a simple (a) (b) 1For more information on the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS model, see http://www.bom.gov.au/nwp/doc/access/NWPData.shtml 2https…”
MethodInfluentialIdentifying robust strategies for assisted migration in a competitive stochastic metacommunity
Backus, G. A., & Baskett, M. L. (2021) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/cobi.13736 · Cited by 12
Brennenstuhl, H., Will, M., Ries, E., Mechler, K., Garbade, S. F., & Ries, M. (2021) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046359 · Cited by 14
Climate change and global warming: Impacts on crop production
(2020) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-818564-3.09991-1 · Cited by 16
cfr (v2024.1.26): a Python package for climate field reconstruction
Zhu, F., Emile‐Geay, J., Hakim, G. J., Guillot, D., Khider, D., Tardif, R., & Perkins, W. A. (2024) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-17-3409-2024 · Cited by 20
Chan, D., Gebbie, G., Huybers, P., & Kent, E. C. (2024) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-024-03742-x · Cited by 13
Thinking of Fish Population Discrimination: Population Average Phenotype vs. Population Phenotypes
Vasconcelos, J., Jurado‐Ruzafa, A., Otero-Ferrer, J. L., Lombarte, A., Riera, R., & Tuset, V. M. (2021) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.740296 · Cited by 12
Flexible carbon capture using MOF fixed bed adsorbers at an NGCC plant
Habib, M., Esquino, A. M., Hughes, R., Soepyan, F. B., Nemetz, L. R., Zhang, Z., Haque, M. E., Luebke, D. R., Lipscomb, G. G., Matuszewski, M., et al. (2023) · Carbon Capture Science & Technology · doi:10.1016/j.ccst.2023.100170 · Cited by 12
Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the soil and bedrock thermal regimes in central Spain
García‐Pereira, F., González-Rouco, J. F., Schmid, T., Melo‐Aguilar, C., Vegas-Cañas, C., Steinert, N. J., Roldán‐Gómez, P. J., Cuesta‐Valero, F. J., García‐García, A., Hugo Beltrami, A., et al. (2024) · SOIL · doi:10.5194/soil-10-1-2024 · Cited by 12
Zhang, Y., Zhao, S., Li, L., Feng, J., Qiu, W., Wei, Z., Li, X., Huang, Z. Y., & Lin, H. (2024) · Gas Science and Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.jgsce.2024.205251 · Cited by 12
Quantifying exposure biases in early instrumental land surface air temperature observations
Wallis, E. J., Osborn, T. J., Taylor, M. J. H., Jones, P. D., Joshi, M., & Hawkins, E. (2024) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.8401 · Cited by 12
“] in Lenssen et al. [2019] and Osborn et al. [2021] in Morice et al. [2021]) and are also used to calibrate many temperature palaeoreconstruc-tions (e.g., Anchukaitis et al., 2017; PAGES2k Consortium, 2017).”
MethodSpatio-temporal distribution of intensity and frequency of extreme temperature events over Nigeria
Ogolo, E. O., Ojo, O. S., & Olabisi, I. O. (2024) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-024-05215-y · Cited by 13
Bjerke, J. W., López‐Blanco, E., Tømmervik, H., Striberny, A., Davids, C., Ólafsdóttir, R., Karlsen, S. R., Sandström, P., Turunen, M. T., Rikkonen, T., et al. (2024) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.105012 · Cited by 19
Huang, B., Yin, X., Boyer, T., Liu, C., Menne, M. J., Rao, Y. D., Smith, T. M., Vose, R. S., & Zhang, H. (2025) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-24-0185.1 · Cited by 12
Self-citationDosio, A., Migliavacca, M., & Maraun, D. (2025) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-024-03855-7 · Cited by 12
“Here we use the NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 (GISTEMP v4, Lenssen et al. 2019) that combines land surface air temperatures with sea surface temperatures into a comprehensive global surface temperature data.”
Multi-Vector Approach to Cities’ Transition to Low-Carbon Emission Developments
Dovie, D. B. K., Dzodzomenyo, M., Dodor, D. E., Amoah, A.-B., Twerefou, D. K., Codjoe, S. N. A., & Kasei, R. A. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12135382 · Cited by 12
“ist ricall , i a s l te ter s, J l 2019 irt all tie it st 2016 as arth’s hottest onth on recor of any onth (Figure 2a [6,7], Figure 2b [8]).”
Backgrounddel Carmen, M. A. A., Estrada, F., & Gay-García, C. (2021) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0510.1 · Cited by 12
“…anomalies (HadCRUT4, version 4.6.0.0) on a 58 3 58 global grid, available for the period 1850–2018 (Morice et al. 2012) and 2) the GISS surface temperature analysis (GISTEMP v4) on a 28 3 28 global grid, available for the period 1850–2005 (GISTEMPTeam 2021; Hansen et al. 2010; Lenssen et al. 2019).”
MethodInfluentialAshcroft, L., Trewin, B. C., Benoy, M., Ray, D., & Courtney, C. (2021) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.7385 · Cited by 12
“Land-based temperature observations form a key component of global datasets of climate variability (e.g., Hansen et al., 2010; Jones and Wigley, 2010; Morice et al., 2012; Lenssen et al., 2019; Osborn et al., 2021).”
BackgroundEvolution in response to climate in the native and introduced ranges of a globally distributed plant
Innes, S. G., Santangelo, J. S., Kooyers, N. J., Olsen, K. M., & Johnson, M. T. J. (2022) · Evolution · doi:10.1111/evo.14514 · Cited by 12
Climatic warming in Shanghai during 1873–2019 based on homogenised temperature records
Ping, L., Yan, Z., & Li, Z. (2022) · Advances in Climate Change Research · doi:10.1016/j.accre.2022.05.006 · Cited by 12
How the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought spread heat extremes around the Northern Hemisphere
Meehl, G. A., Teng, H., Rosenbloom, N. A., Hu, A., Tebaldi, C., & Walton, G. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-22262-5 · Cited by 12
Meyssignac, B., Chenal, J., Loeb, N. G., Guillaume‐Castel, R., & Ribes, A. (2023) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00887-2 · Cited by 12
Probabilistic projections of future warming and climate sensitivity trajectories
Goodwin, P. (2021) · Oxford Open Climate Change · doi:10.1093/oxfclm/kgab007 · Cited by 12
Wang, M., Xu, Z., Fu, J., Du, H., & Wang, S. (2022) · Diamond and Related Materials · doi:10.1016/j.diamond.2022.108966 · Cited by 12
Backus, G. A., Huang, Y., & Baskett, M. L. (2022) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0380 · Cited by 12
Acceleration hotspots of North American birds’ decline are associated with agriculture
Leroy, F., Jarzyna, M. A., & Keil, P. (2026) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.ads0871 · Cited by 12
Impact of Microclimate on Agriculture in India: Transformation and Adaptation
Rukhsana, R., Alam, A., & Mandal, I. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-69333-6_3 · Cited by 13
Changing Nature of High‐Impact Snowfall Events in Eastern North America
McCray, C. D., Schmidt, G. A., Paquin, D., Leduc, M., Bi, Z., Radiyat, M., Silverman, C., Spitz, M., & Brettschneider, B. R. (2023) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2023jd038804 · Cited by 14
“Two observational datasets are also plotted through 2022 for reference: Berkeley Earth (Rohde & Hausfather, 2020) (thick red line) and GISTEMP (Lenssen et al., 2019) (thick black line).”
MethodSelf-citationMoon, T., Thoman, R. L., Druckenmiller, M. L., Ahmasuk, B., Backensto, S. A., Ballinger, T. J., Benestad, R. E., Berner, L. T., Bernhard, G., Bhatt, U. S., et al. (2023) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-23-0079.1 · Cited by 11
Shifting invertebrate distributions in the Barents Sea since pre-1900
Calvet, N., Bluhm, B. A., Yoccoz, N. G., & Altenburger, A. (2024) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2024.1421475 · Cited by 13
Durhasan, T., Pınar, E., Uluocak, İ., & Bilgili, M. (2024) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-024-05260-7 · Cited by 11
“The other dataset is provided by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature version 4, GIS-TEMP developed by NASA (Lenssen et al. 2019; GISTEMP Team 2024).”
InfluentialA Shorter Duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Constrained Projections
Cheng, Y., Wang, L., Chen, X., Zhou, T., & Turner, A. (2025) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2024gl112848 · Cited by 11
“…(Huang et al., 2017), HadISST (Rayner et al., 2003), and ICOADS (Freeman et al., 2017), while the Ts data sets were derived from four sources: BEST (Rohde et al., 2013), Cowtan and Way version 2 (Cowtan et al., 2014), GISTEMP v5 (Lenssen et al., 2019), and NOAAGlobalTemp v5 (Vose et al., 2012).”
Cai, Z., You, Q., Screen, J. A., Chen, H. W., Zhang, R., Zuo, Z., Chen, D., Cohen, J. L., Kang, S., & Zhang, R. (2025) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adr6413 · Cited by 11
“…observed global warming trend from 1960 to 2014 was calculated using four datasets: ERA5, Met Office Hadley Centre global surface temperature anomalies version 5 (HadCRUT5) ( 65 ), GISS surface temperature analysis version 4 (GISTEMP4) ( 66 ), and Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) ( 67 ).”
Granger causal inference for climate change attribution
Risser, M. D., Ombadi, M., & Wehner, M. F. (2025) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/add046 · Cited by 13
“To answer these questions, let Y ( t ) , t = 1900 ,... , 2015 be annual averages of monthly GMST measurements relative to 1950–1980 (obtained from Lenssen et al 2019).”
Understanding data uncertainty
Bokulich, A., & Parker, W. S. (2025) · Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A · doi:10.1016/j.shpsa.2025.06.003 · Cited by 11
Disentangling the roles of natural variability and climate change in Canada’s 2023 fire season
Barnes, C. R., Jain, P., Keeping, T., Gillett, N. P., Boucher, J., Gachon, P., Heinrich, D., Kirchmeier‐Young, M. C., & Boulanger, Y. (2025) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/adec0f · Cited by 11
“As a proxy for anthropogenic climate change we use the global mean surface temperature (GMST) taken from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Science surface temperature analysis [40, 41].”
Jaskólski, M. (2021) · Miscellanea Geographica · doi:10.2478/mgrsd-2020-0036 · Cited by 11
Assessing progress toward the Paris climate agreement from space
Weir, B., Oda, T., Ott, L. E., & Schmidt, G. A. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac998c · Cited by 11
Self-citationSimulations and Projections of Winter Sea Ice in the Barents Sea by CMIP6 Climate Models
Pan, R., Shu, Q., Song, Z., Wang, S., He, Y., & Qiao, F. (2023) · Advances in Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1007/s00376-023-2235-2 · Cited by 11
“The Goddard Institute for Space Studies surface air temperature (SAT) dataset (Hansen et al., 2010; Lenssen et al., 2019) was also used in this study to investigate the sensitivity of sea ice to global warming.”
MethodGlobal and regional climate in 2022
Dunn, R., Sandford, C., Kendon, M., Morice, C., Kennedy, J., & Rayner, N. A. (2023) · Weather · doi:10.1002/wea.4500 · Cited by 11
Observed Energetic Adjustment of the Arctic and Antarctic in a Warming World
Prince, H. D., & L’Ecuyer, T. (2024) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-23-0294.1 · Cited by 11
“These effects result in warmer Arctic air temperatures (Lenssen et al. 2019), reduced sea ice concentration (Stroeve and Notz 2018), reduced sea ice age (Maslanik et al. 2011), longer melt seasons (Markus et al. 2009), and changes in surface – atmosphere interactions (Serreze and Barry 2011) paired…”
BackgroundTrends and Variability in Airmass Frequencies: Indicators of a Changing Climate
Lee, C. C. (2020) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0094.1 · Cited by 11
Temperature Anomalies, Long Memory, and Aggregation
Vera‐Valdés, J. E. (2021) · Econometrics · doi:10.3390/econometrics9010009 · Cited by 11
“The data is updated monthly and combines data from land and ocean surface temperatures (see GISTEMP Team (2020); Lenssen et al. (2019)).”
Method
Metadata
- Authors
- Lenssen, N. J. L., Schmidt, G. A., Hansen, J. E., Menne, M. J., Persin, A., Ruedy, R., & Zyss, D.
- Affiliations
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lenssen, Nathan J. L.
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-06-24
- Volume
- 124
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 6307-6326
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-897X
- 2169-8996
- OpenAlex
- W2946160190
- Cited by
- 962
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 65 · 2025: 101 · 2024: 153 · 2023: 159 · 2022: 162 · 2021: 189 · 2020: 114 · 2019: 18
- FWCI
- 62.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (NSF DGE 16-44869)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- surface temperature anomalies, uncertainty analysis, instrumental temperature records, station homogenization, station coverage, ocean data processing, systematic bias, land cover change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
