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Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model
Open accessAbstract
We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys, and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses, and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization, and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05 °C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15 °C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date) and conclude with 87% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).
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“03 °C/decade) according to the NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) data (GISTEMP‐ Team, 2019; Lenssen et al., 2019).”
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2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years
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Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test
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BackgroundImpacts and risks of “realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century
Scafetta, N. (2024) · Geoscience Frontiers · doi:10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101774 · Cited by 143
The ICON Earth System Model Version 1.0
Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Schmidt, H., Brovkin, V. A., Brüggemann, N., Chegini, F., Crüger, T., de Vrese, P., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M. A., et al. (2022) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2021ms002813 · Cited by 143
“Time series of surface temperature relative to the respective 1850– 1899 averages over (a) the globe, (b) the northern hemisphere, and (c) the southern hemisphere for (red-orange) the ICON-ESM historical ensemble, and observational compilations by (blue) the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature prod…”
BackgroundThe Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature
Bilal, A., & Känzig, D. R. (2024) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w32450 · Cited by 179
An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget
Matthews, H. D., Tokarska, K. B., Rogelj, J., Smith, C., MacDougall, A. H., Haustein, K., Mengis, N., Sippel, S., Forster, P. M. D. F., & Knutti, R. (2021) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9 · Cited by 153
Nordli, Ø., Wyszyński, P., Gjelten, H. M., Isaksen, K., Łupikasza, E. B., Niedźwiedź, T., & Przybylak, R. (2020) · Polar Research · doi:10.33265/polar.v39.3614 · Cited by 138
“This amounts to more than twice the Arctic average (0.8 °C/decade, north of 66°N (NOAA-ESRL 2019) and is about seven times the global average (0.2 °C/decade), based on the latest GISTEMP data (GISTEMP Team 2019; Lenssen et al. 2019).”
BackgroundInfluentialThe State-of-the-Art of Urban Climate Change Modeling and Observations
Hamdi, R., Kusaka, H., Doan, Q., Cai, P., He, H., Luo, G., Kuang, W., Caluwaerts, S., Duchêne, F., Schaeybroeck, B. V., et al. (2020) · Earth Systems and Environment · doi:10.1007/s41748-020-00193-3 · Cited by 144
“3 Change in the annual-mean surface temperature over the period 1950–2018 based on local linear trend retrieved from the GISTEMP data (Lenssen et al. 2019).”
MethodHuman influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity
Bonfils, C., Santer, B. D., Fyfe, J. C., Marvel, K., Phillips, T. J., & Zimmerman, S. H. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0821-1 · Cited by 146
Wilcox, L. J., Liu, Z., Samset, B. H., Hawkins, E., Lund, M. T., Nordling, K., Undorf, S., Bollasina, M. A., Ekman, A. M. L., Krishnan, S., et al. (2020) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020 · Cited by 148
Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., Behrangi, A., Bolvin, D. T., Nelkin, E. J., Gu, G., & Ehsani, M. R. (2023) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-23-0123.1 · Cited by 152
Huang, B., Menne, M. J., Boyer, T., Freeman, E., Gleason, B. E., Lawrimore, J. H., Liu, C., Rennie, J., Schreck, C. J., Sun, F., et al. (2019) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0395.1 · Cited by 134
Self-citationSousa, P. M., Barriopedro, D., García‐Herrera, R., Ordóñez, C., Soares, P. M. M., & Trigo, R. M. (2020) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00048-9 · Cited by 146
On the curious case of the recent decade, mid-spring precipitation deficit in central Europe
Ionita-Scholz, M., Nagavciuc, V., Kumar, R., & Rakovec, O. (2020) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-020-00153-8 · Cited by 135
Equilibrium climate sensitivity above 5 °C plausible due to state-dependent cloud feedback
Bjordal, J., Storelvmo, T., Alterskjær, K., & Carlsen, T. (2020) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-020-00649-1 · Cited by 122
Cai, Z., You, Q., Wu, F., Chen, H. W., Chen, D., & Cohen, J. L. (2021) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0791.1 · Cited by 123
Anthropogenic forcing and response yield observed positive trend in Earth’s energy imbalance
Raghuraman, S. P., Paynter, D. J., & Ramaswamy, V. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-24544-4 · Cited by 129
Recent pronounced warming on the Mongolian Plateau boosted by internal climate variability
Cai, Q., Chen, W., Chen, S., Xie, S., Piao, J., Ma, T., & Lan, X. (2024) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01377-6 · Cited by 122
“…the period 1840–2020 53 ; (3) the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature, version 4 (GISTEMP v.4), over the period 1880–2020 54 ; and (4) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Surface Temperature, version 5.0 (NOAAGlobalTemp v.5), over the period…”
InfluentialEmergent constraints on future precipitation changes
Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Kim, H., & Hirota, N. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-04310-8 · Cited by 114
Bilgili, M. S., Tümse, S., & Nar, S. (2024) · Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering · doi:10.1007/s13369-024-09390-y · Cited by 129
Bilbao, R. A. F., Wild, S., Ortega, P., Navarro, J. C. A., Arsouze, T., Bretonnière, P.-A., Caron, L., Castrillo, M., Cruz-García, R., Cvijanović, I., et al. (2021) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-12-173-2021 · Cited by 110
Zhu, J., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Gettelman, A., Bacmeister, J. T., Neale, R., Poulsen, C. J., Shaw, J., McGraw, Z. S., & Kay, J. E. (2022) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2021ms002776 · Cited by 119
Implementing Full Spatial Coverage in NOAA’s Global Temperature Analysis
Vose, R. S., Huang, B., Yin, X., Arndt, D. S., Easterling, D. R., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne, M. J., Sánchez-Lugo, A., & Zhang, H. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl090873 · Cited by 115
“, 2013); NASA (GISTEMP; Lenssen et al., 2019); and Cowtan and Way (2014).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationIntensification of the global water cycle and evidence from ocean salinity: a synthesis review
Yu, L., Josey, S. A., Bingham, F. M., & Lee, T. (2020) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.14354 · Cited by 108
Xing, Z., Li, Z.-L., Duan, S., Liu, X., Zheng, X., Leng, P., Gao, M., Zhang, X., & Shang, G. (2021) · ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2021.05.017 · Cited by 107
Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers
Parsons, L. A., Masuda, Y. J., Kroeger, T., Shindell, D. T., Wolff, N. H., & Spector, J. T. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac3dae · Cited by 122
Ades, M., Adler, R., Allan, R. J., Allan, R. P., Anderson, J., Argüez, A., Arosio, C., Augustine, J. A., Azorín-Molina, C., Barichivich, J., et al. (2020) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-20-0104.1 · Cited by 107
Papalexiou, S. M., Rajulapati, C. R., Clark, M., & Lehner, F. (2020) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001667 · Cited by 110
“gov/gistemp), built by combining the NOAA GHCN v4 database for land (meteorological stations), and the ERSST v5 for ocean areas (Hansen et al., 2010; Lenssen et al., 2019); (2) Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures (Berkeley; http://berkeleyearth.”
MethodImplications of CMIP6 Projected Drying Trends for 21st Century Amazonian Drought Risk
Parsons, L. A. (2020) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001608 · Cited by 107
“…air temperature variability over land is also examined using Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) surface temperature analysis (GISTEMP; Lenssen et al., 2019), Climate Research Unit (CRU) Air Temperature Anomalies Version 4.2.0 (CRUTEMv4; Jones et al., 2012), and UDEL temperature…”
InfluentialCompensation Between Cloud Feedback and Aerosol‐Cloud Interaction in CMIP6 Models
Wang, C., Soden, B. J., Yang, W., & Vecchi, G. A. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl091024 · Cited by 100
“The global analysis of surface temperature observations is obtained from the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4) (Lenssen et al., 2019).”
MethodA NASA GISTEMPv4 Observational Uncertainty Ensemble
Lenssen, N., Schmidt, G. A., Hendrickson, M., Jacobs, P., Menne, M. J., & Ruedy, R. A. (2024) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2023jd040179 · Cited by 120
“However, as shown in Lenssen et al. (2019), global and large-scale GISTEMP uncertainty estimates derived from ERA5 agree with the estimates derived from the JRA-55 and MERRA2 reanalyses.”
InfluentialSelf-citationSteady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990
Samset, B. H., Zhou, C., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Lund, M. T., Marotzke, J., & Zelinka, M. D. (2023) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01061-4 · Cited by 100
Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming
Jahn, A. (2018) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0127-8 · Cited by 97
Progress in adsorption capacity of nanomaterials for carbon dioxide capture: A comparative study
Firdaus, R. M., Desforges, A., Mohamed, A. R., & Vigolo, B. (2021) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129553 · Cited by 95
Persistent Ross Sea Freshening From Imbalance West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melting
Jacobs, S. S., Giulivi, C. F., & Dutrieux, P. (2022) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1029/2021jc017808 · Cited by 92
Steady threefold Arctic amplification of externally forced warming masked by natural variability
Zhou, W., Leung, L.-Y. R., & Lu, J. (2024) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01441-1 · Cited by 110
“HadCRUT5 is produced by blending data from CRUTEM5 (land) and HadSST4 (ocean); GISTEMP4 is produced by blending data from NOAA GHCN v4 (land) and ERSST v5 (ocean); the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures (BEST) is a merged land-ocean dataset that combines land temperature records with an interpolated version of HadSST…”
InfluentialOn the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change
Roe, G. H., Christian, J. E., & Marzeion, B. (2021) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021 · Cited by 90
Climate change and extreme weather: A review focusing on the continental United States
Robinson, W. A. (2021) · Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association · doi:10.1080/10962247.2021.1942319 · Cited by 95
Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS‐E2.1
Nazarenko, L. S., Tausnev, N., Russell, G. L., Rind, D., Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Bauer, S. E., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Ackerman, A. S., et al. (2022) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2021ms002871 · Cited by 104
Self-citationArctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100
Crawford, A. D., Stroeve, J. C., Smith, A., & Jahn, A. (2021) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00183-x · Cited by 84
Capture of carbon dioxide using solid carbonaceous and non-carbonaceous adsorbents: a review
Sharma, H., & Dhir, A. (2020) · Environmental Chemistry Letters · doi:10.1007/s10311-020-01118-2 · Cited by 82
Wehrli, K., Hauser, M., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2020) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-11-855-2020 · Cited by 83
Metadata
- Authors
- Lenssen, N. J. L., Schmidt, G. A., Hansen, J. E., Menne, M. J., Persin, A., Ruedy, R., & Zyss, D.
- Affiliations
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lenssen, Nathan J. L.
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-06-24
- Volume
- 124
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 6307-6326
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-897X
- 2169-8996
- OpenAlex
- W2946160190
- Cited by
- 962
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 65 · 2025: 101 · 2024: 153 · 2023: 159 · 2022: 162 · 2021: 189 · 2020: 114 · 2019: 18
- FWCI
- 62.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (NSF DGE 16-44869)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- surface temperature anomalies, uncertainty analysis, instrumental temperature records, station homogenization, station coverage, ocean data processing, systematic bias, land cover change
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