Cited by 166Hydrological Forecasting Using AIHydrology and Watershed Management StudiesEnvironmental Monitoring and Data Management

Mitigating Prediction Error of Deep Learning Streamflow Models in Large Data‐Sparse Regions With Ensemble Modeling and Soft Data

Feng, Dapeng, Lawson, Kathryn, Shen, Chaopeng·2021·Geophysical Research Letters

Abstract

Predicting discharge in contiguously data‐scarce or ungauged regions is needed for quantifying the global hydrologic cycle. We show that prediction in ungauged regions (PUR) has major, underrecognized uncertainty and is drastically more difficult than previous problems where basins can be represented by neighboring or similar basins (known as prediction in ungauged basins). While deep neural networks demonstrated stellar performance for streamflow predictions, performance nonetheless declined for PUR, benchmarked here with a new stringent region‐based holdout test on a US data set with 671 basins. We tested approaches to reduce such errors, leveraging deep network's flexibility to integrate “soft” data, such as satellite‐based soil moisture product, or daily flow distributions which improved low flow simulations. A novel input‐selection ensemble improved average performance and greatly reduced catastrophic failures. Despite challenges, deep networks showed stronger performance metrics for PUR than traditional hydrologic models. They appear competitive for geoscientific modeling even in data‐scarce settings.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1029/2021gl092999

Cites

51 of 51 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 52 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Feng, D., Lawson, K., & Shen, C.
Affiliations
Pennsylvania State University (US)
Corresponding author
Shen, Chaopeng
Venue
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2021-07-19
Volume
48
Issue
14
ISSN
  • 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
  • 1944-8007
OpenAlex
W3174646361
Cited by
162
References
52
Citations by year
2026: 20 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 38 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 1
FWCI
9.30
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
Funders
National Science Foundation (EAR#1832294)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geology › Environmental Monitoring and Data Management
Keywords
streamflow forecasting, deep neural network, ensemble learning, feature selection, soft information, satellite soil moisture, low flow simulation, data-scarce basins, forecast uncertainty, ungauged basins

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review