Mitigating Prediction Error of Deep Learning Streamflow Models in Large Data‐Sparse Regions With Ensemble Modeling and Soft Data
Abstract
Predicting discharge in contiguously data‐scarce or ungauged regions is needed for quantifying the global hydrologic cycle. We show that prediction in ungauged regions (PUR) has major, underrecognized uncertainty and is drastically more difficult than previous problems where basins can be represented by neighboring or similar basins (known as prediction in ungauged basins). While deep neural networks demonstrated stellar performance for streamflow predictions, performance nonetheless declined for PUR, benchmarked here with a new stringent region‐based holdout test on a US data set with 671 basins. We tested approaches to reduce such errors, leveraging deep network's flexibility to integrate “soft” data, such as satellite‐based soil moisture product, or daily flow distributions which improved low flow simulations. A novel input‐selection ensemble improved average performance and greatly reduced catastrophic failures. Despite challenges, deep networks showed stronger performance metrics for PUR than traditional hydrologic models. They appear competitive for geoscientific modeling even in data‐scarce settings.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
LSTM performance declines from temporal to PUB tests but obtains better results than established process-based models calibrated on the test basins.
“While the LSTM's performance declines from temporal to PUB tests, it obtains better results than established process-based models calibrated on the test basins (Feng et al., 2021;Kratzert et al., 2019a).”
From The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment (2023) · cites this paper as Feng et al., 2021
For PUR, LSTM performance further declines significantly.
“For PUR, the LSTM's performance further declines significantly (Feng et al., 2021).”
From The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment (2023) · cites this paper as Feng et al., 2021
Regionalized LSTM models hold the performance record on daily hydrograph metrics for PUB and PUR.
“For both kinds of tests, regionalized LSTM models hold the performance record on daily hydrograph metrics (Feng et al., 2021;Kratzert et al., 2019a).”
From The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment (2023) · cites this paper as Feng et al., 2021
All models achieve their best PUR results in region 1 (northeast) and region 7 (northwest), with NSE/KGE medians larger than or close to 0.6, consistent with a previous PUR study using LSTM.
“best PUR results in region 1 (northeast) and region 7 (northwest), with NSE/KGE medians larger than or close to 0.6 (Fig. B2), which are consistent with our previous PUR study using LSTM (Feng et al., 2021).”
From The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment (2023) · cites this paper as Feng et al., 2021
Cites
Hochreiter, S., & Schmidhuber, J. (1997) · Neural Computation · doi:10.1162/neco.1997.9.8.1735 · Cited by 102,318 · see citing works
LeCun, Y., Bengio, Y., & Hinton, G. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14539 · Cited by 84,126 · see citing works
River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles
Nash, J. E., & Sutcliffe, J. V. (1970) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6 · Cited by 23,830 · see citing works
Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Liew, M. W. V., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., & Veith, T. L. (2007) · Transactions of the ASABE · doi:10.13031/2013.23153 · Cited by 13,446 · see citing works
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., & Martinez, G. F. (2009) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003 · Cited by 6,758 · see citing works
Dropout as a bayesian approximation: Representing model uncertainty in deep learning
Gal, Y., & Ghahramani, Z. (2015) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1506.02142 · Cited by 6,471 · see citing works
The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission
Entekhabi, D., Njoku, E. G., O'Neill, P. E., Kellogg, K. H., Crow, W. T., Edelstein, W. N., Entin, J. K., Goodman, S. D., Jackson, T. J., Johnson, J. T., et al. (2010) · Proceedings of the IEEE · doi:10.1109/jproc.2010.2043918 · Cited by 3,793 · see citing works
Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
Allen, M. R., & Ingram, W. J. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01092 · Cited by 3,009 · see citing works
Rainfall–runoff modelling using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks
(2018) · doi:10.5194/hess-22-6005-2018 · Cited by 2,114 · see citing works
Shen, C. (2018) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2018wr022643 · Cited by 1,476 · see citing works
Self-citationA decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)—a review
Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H. H. G., Blöschl, G., McDonnell, J. J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J. W., Arheimer, B., Blume, T., Clark, M., Ehret, U., et al. (2013) · Hydrological Sciences Journal · doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.803183 · Cited by 1,321 · see citing works
Toward Improved Predictions in Ungauged Basins: Exploiting the Power of Machine Learning
Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Herrnegger, M., Sampson, A. K., Hochreiter, S., & Nearing, G. (2019) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2019wr026065 · Cited by 1,042 · see citing works
Multiscale parameter regionalization of a grid‐based hydrologic model at the mesoscale
Samaniego, L., Kumar, R., & Attinger, S. (2010) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2008wr007327 · Cited by 858 · see citing works
A Rainfall‐Runoff Model With LSTM‐Based Sequence‐to‐Sequence Learning
Xiang, Z., Yan, J., & Demir, İ. (2020) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2019wr025326 · Cited by 773 · see citing works
Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems
Cortes, C., Lee, D., Sugiyama, M., & Garnett, R. (2015) · Cited by 747 · see citing works
Yılmaz, K. K., Gupta, H. V., & Wagener, T. (2008) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2007wr006716 · Cited by 704 · see citing works
Feng, D., Fang, K., & Shen, C. (2020) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2019wr026793 · Cited by 633 · see citing works
Self-citationThe SWOT Mission and Its Capabilities for Land Hydrology
Biancamaria, S., Lettenmaier, D. P., & Pavelsky, T. M. (2015) · Surveys in Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s10712-015-9346-y · Cited by 621 · see citing works
GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., & Pappenberger, F. (2013) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013 · Cited by 583 · see citing works
Streamflow Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Review of Regionalization Methods
Razavi, T., & Coulibaly, P. (2012) · Journal of Hydrologic Engineering · doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000690 · Cited by 461 · see citing works
Fang, K., Shen, C., Kifer, D., & Yang, X. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl075619 · Cited by 368 · see citing works
Self-citationTowards objective probabalistic climate forecasting
Allen, M. R., & Stainforth, D. A. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01092a · Cited by 342 · see citing works
Guo, Y., Zhang, Y., Zhang, L., & Wang, Z. (2020) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water · doi:10.1002/wat2.1487 · Cited by 336 · see citing works
Ma, K., Feng, D., Lawson, K., Tsai, W., Liang, C., Huang, X., Sharma, A., & Shen, C. (2021) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2020wr028600 · Cited by 266 · see citing works
Self-citationCalibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves
Westerberg, I. K., Guerrero, J.-L., Younger, P. M., Beven, K. J., Seibert, J., Halldin, S., Freer, J. E., & Xu, C. (2011) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-15-2205-2011 · Cited by 255 · see citing works
The proper care and feeding of CAMELS: How limited training data affects streamflow prediction
Gauch, M., Mai, J., & Lin, J. (2020) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104926 · Cited by 243 · see citing works
Trabucco, A., Zomer, R. J., Bossio, D., van Straaten, O., & Verchot, L. V. (2008) · Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment · doi:10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.015 · Cited by 243 · see citing works
Regional flow-duration curves: reliability for ungauged basins
Castellarin, A., Galeati, G., Brandimarte, L., Montanari, A., & Brath, A. (2004) · Advances in Water Resources · doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.08.005 · Cited by 222 · see citing works
Neal, R. M. (1996) · Lecture notes in statistics · doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-0745-0_2 · Cited by 210 · see citing works
Mu, X., Zhang, L., McVicar, T. R., Chille, B., & Gau, P. (2007) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.6391 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
Fang, K., & Shen, C. (2020) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-19-0169.1 · Cited by 183 · see citing works
Self-citationBeck, H. E., Pan, M., Lin, P., Seibert, J., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., & Wood, E. F. (2020) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2019jd031485 · Cited by 165 · see citing works
Shafii, M., & Tolson, B. A. (2015) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2014wr016520 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
Zhou, Y., Wu, X., Ju, W., Chen, J. M., Wang, S., Wang, H., Yuan, W., Black, T. A., Jassal, R. S., Ibrom, A., et al. (2015) · Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences · doi:10.1002/2014jg002876 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
High temporal resolution rainfall–runoff modeling using long-short-term-memory (LSTM) networks
Li, W., Kiaghadi, A., & Dawson, C. (2020) · Neural Computing and Applications · doi:10.1007/s00521-020-05010-6 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
A new regionalization approach and its application to predict flow duration curve in ungauged basins
Li, M., Shao, Q., Zhang, L., & Chiew, F. H. S. (2010) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.039 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
Masih, I., Uhlenbrook, S., Maskey, S., & Ahmad, M. (2010) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.018 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action
de Perez, E. C., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M., Amuron, I., Bamanya, D., Hauser, T., Jongma, B., López, A. M., Mason, S. J., de Suarez, J. M., et al. (2016) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations
Wada, Y., Reager, J. T., Chao, B. F., Wang, J., Lo, M., Song, C., Yuwen, L., & Gardner, A. (2016) · Surveys in Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s10712-016-9399-6 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Ouyang, W., Lawson, K., Feng, D., Ye, L., Zhang, C., & Shen, C. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126455 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Self-citationRegionalization of daily flow characteristics in part of the Eastern Cape, South Africa
Smakhtin, V., Hughes, D. A., & CREUSE-NAUDIN, E. (1997) · Hydrological Sciences Journal · doi:10.1080/02626669709492088 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Water sustainability and watershed storage
McDonnell, J. J., Evaristo, J., Bladon, K. D., Buttle, J. M., Creed, I. F., Dymond, S. F., Grant, G. E., Andres Iroume, A., Jackson, C. R., Jones, J. A., et al. (2018) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-018-0099-8 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Synthetic design hydrographs for ungauged catchments: a comparison of regionalization methods
Brunner, M. I., Furrer, R., Sikorska‐Senoner, A. E., Viviroli, D., Seibert, J., & Favre, A. (2018) · Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment · doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1523-3 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Nruthya, K., & Srinivas, V. V. (2015) · Aquatic Procedia · doi:10.1016/j.aqpro.2015.02.083 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Sadegh, M., Vrugt, J. A., Gupta, H. V., & Xu, C. (2016) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.027 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Synthetic regional flow duration curve for southern Taiwan
Yu, P., & Yang, T. (1996) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-1085(199603)10:3 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Post processing the U.S. National Water Model with a Long Short-Term Memory networkPreprint
Frame, J., Nearing, G., Kratzert, F., & Rahman, M. (2020) · doi:10.31223/osf.io/4xhac · Cited by 23 · see citing works
The index gage method to develop a flow duration curve from short-term streamflow records
Zhang, Z. (2017) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.045 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Daily Flow Estimation at Ungauged Regions Based on Regional Flow Duration Curves
Huan, G., & Zhu, C. (2009) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-89465-0_10 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Analysis of the Regional Flow Duration Curve for Dongjiang Basin, South China
Jian, T., & Huan, G. (2009) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-89465-0_9 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 52 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Differentiable modelling to unify machine learning and physical models for geosciences
Shen, C., Appling, A., Gentine, P., Bandai, T., Gupta, H. V., Tartakovsky, A. M., Baity‐Jesi, M., Fenicia, F., Kifer, D., Li, L., et al. (2023) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00450-9 · Cited by 553 · see citing works
Self-citationFeng, D., Liu, J., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2022) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2022wr032404 · Cited by 361 · see citing works
Self-citationHybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Slater, L. J., Arnal, L., Boucher, M.-A., Chang, A. Y.-Y., Moulds, S., Murphy, C., Nearing, G., Shalev, G., Shen, C., Speight, L., et al. (2023) · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023 · Cited by 281 · see citing works
Self-citationKumar, V., Kedam, N., Sharma, K. V., Mehta, D., & Caloiero, T. (2023) · Water · doi:10.3390/w15142572 · Cited by 255 · see citing works
Feng, D., Beck, H., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2023) · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-27-2357-2023 · Cited by 197 · see citing works
Self-citationTemperature outweighs light and flow as the predominant driver of dissolved oxygen in US rivers
Zhi, W., Ouyang, W., Shen, C., & Li, L. (2023) · Nature Water · doi:10.1038/s44221-023-00038-z · Cited by 165 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Great Lakes Runoff Intercomparison Project Phase 4: the Great Lakes (GRIP-GL)
Mai, J., Shen, H., Tolson, B. A., Gaborit, É., Arsenault, R., Craig, J. R., Fortin, V., Fry, L. M., Gauch, M., Klotz, D., et al. (2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-26-3537-2022 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Sun, A. Y., Jiang, P., Yang, Z., Xie, Y., & Chen, X. (2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-26-5163-2022 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
A Multiscale Deep Learning Model for Soil Moisture Integrating Satellite and In Situ Data
Liu, J., Rahmani, F., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2021gl096847 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Self-citationProbing the limit of hydrologic predictability with the Transformer network
Liu, J., Bian, Y., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131389 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Self-citationRahmani, F., Shen, C., Oliver, S. K., Lawson, K., & Appling, A. (2021) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.14400 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Self-citationZhong, L., Lei, H., & Yang, J. (2024) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2023wr036333 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Feng, D., Beck, H. E., de Bruijn, J., Sahu, R. K., Satoh, Y., Wada, Y., Liu, J., Pan, M., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2024) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-17-7181-2024 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Self-citationCantoni, È., Tramblay, Y., Grimaldi, S., Salamon, P., Dakhlaoui, H., Dezetter, A., & Thiemig, V. (2022) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101169 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Optimal Postprocessing Strategies With LSTM for Global Streamflow Prediction in Ungauged Basins
Tang, S., Sun, F., Liu, W., Wang, H., Yao, F., & Li, Z. (2023) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2022wr034352 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Khoshkalam, Y., Rousseau, A. N., Rahmani, F., Shen, C., & Abbasnezhadi, K. (2023) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129682 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Self-citationAlternate pathway for regional flood frequency analysis in data-sparse region
Mangukiya, N. K., & Sharma, A. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130635 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Yang, Y., Feng, D., Beck, H. E., Hu, W., Abbas, A., Sengupta, A., Monache, L. D., Hartman, R. K., Lin, P., Shen, C., et al. (2025) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2024wr039764 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Self-citationAboelyazeed, D., Xu, C., Hoffman, F. M., Liu, J., Jones, A. W., Rackauckas, C., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2023) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-20-2671-2023 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Self-citationHe, M., Jiang, S. S., Ren, L., Cui, H. L., Qin, T., Du, S., Zhu, Y., Fang, X., & Xu, C. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131638 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Willard, J., Varadharajan, C., Jia, X., & Kumar, V. (2025) · Environmental Data Science · doi:10.1017/eds.2024.14 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Mangukiya, N. K., Sharma, A., & Shen, C. (2023) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.14936 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Self-citationMa, K., He, D., Liu, S., Ji, X., Li, Y., & Jiang, H. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130841 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
He, M., Xu, X., Wu, S., Kang, C., & Huang, B. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-89837-w · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Tabas, S. S., & Samadi, S. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac7247 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Liu, B., Tang, Q., Zhao, G., Gao, L., Shen, C., & Pan, B. (2022) · Water · doi:10.3390/w14091429 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Self-citationSong, Y., Chaemchuen, P., Rahmani, F., Zhi, W., Li, L., Liu, X., Boyer, E. W., Bindas, T., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2023) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131573 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Self-citationDeciphering the Mechanism of Better Predictions of Regional LSTM Models in Ungauged Basins
Yu, Q., Jiang, L., Schneider, R. J. M., Zheng, Y., & Liu, J. (2024) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2023wr035876 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Gacu, J. G., Monjardin, C. E. F., Mangulabnan, R. G. T., & Mendez, J. C. F. (2025) · Water · doi:10.3390/w17182722 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Tran, V. N., Ivanov, V. Y., Xu, D., & Kim, J. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl104464 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
LSTM-Based Data Integration to Improve Snow Water Equivalent Prediction and Diagnose Error Sources
Song, Y., Tsai, W., Gluck, J., Rhoades, A. M., Zarzycki, C. M., McCrary, R., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2023) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-22-0220.1 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Self-citationLiu, J., Hughes, D. P., Rahmani, F., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2023) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-16-1553-2023 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Self-citationTursun, A., Xie, X., Wang, Y., Peng, D., Liu, Y., Zheng, B., Wu, X., & Nie, C. (2024) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2023wr036853 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Muhebwa, A., Gleason, C. J., Feng, D., & Taneja, J. (2024) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2024wr037122 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Self-citationLópez-Chacón, S. R., Salazar, F., & Bladé, E. (2023) · Water · doi:10.3390/w15112020 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Identifying Structural Priors in a Hybrid Differentiable Model for Stream Water Temperature Modeling
Rahmani, F., Appling, A., Feng, D., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2023) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2023wr034420 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Self-citationMa, K., Shen, C., Xu, Z., & He, D. (2024) · Journal of Geographical Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11442-024-2235-x · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Self-citationNagendra, S., Kifer, D., Mirus, B. B., Pei, T., Lawson, K., manjunatha, S. B., Li, W., Nguyen, H., Qiu, T., Tran, S., et al. (2022) · IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/jstars.2022.3177025 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Self-citationXu, Q., Shi, Y., Bamber, J. L., Tuo, Y., Ludwig, R., & Zhu, X. X. (2025) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105276 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Metamorphic testing of machine learning and conceptual hydrologic models
Reichert, P., Ma, K., Höge, M., Fenicia, F., Baity‐Jesi, M., Feng, D., & Shen, C. (2024) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Self-citationTursun, A., Xie, X., Wang, Y., Liu, Y., Peng, D., Rusuli, Y., & Zheng, B. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101744 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Zhong, L., Lei, H., Li, Z., & Jiang, S. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132165 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Tran, V. N., Ivanov, V. Y., & Kim, J. (2023) · Advances in Water Resources · doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2023.104569 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Tursun, A., Xie, X., Wang, Y., Liu, Y., Peng, D., & Zheng, B. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130771 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Development of objective function-based ensemble model for streamflow forecasts
Lin, Y., Wang, D., Zhu, J., Sun, W., Shen, C., & Shangguan, W. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130861 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Self-citationHe, L., Shi, L., Song, W., Shen, J., Wang, L., Hu, X., & Zha, Y. (2024) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2024wr037582 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Le, M., Kim, H., Xuan, H., Beling, P. A., & Lakshmi, V. (2024) · Advances in Water Resources · doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2024.104694 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Hah, D., Quilty, J., & Sikorska‐Senoner, A. E. (2022) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105474 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
FlowDyn: A daily streamflow prediction pipeline for dynamical deep neural network applications
Tabas, S. S., Humaira, N., Samadi, S., & Hubig, N. (2023) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105854 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Duong, T. D., Tran, V. N., & Nguyen, V. T. (2025) · Water Resources Management · doi:10.1007/s11269-025-04231-5 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
AI Improves the Accuracy, Reliability, and Economic Value of Continental‐Scale Flood Predictions
Tran, V. N., Kim, T., Xu, D., Tran, H., Le, M., Tran, T., Kim, J., Tran, T. D., Wright, D. B., Restrepo, P. J., et al. (2025) · AGU Advances · doi:10.1029/2025av001678 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Assessing the impacts of dam/weir operation on streamflow predictions using LSTM across South Korea
Kwon, Y., Cha, Y., Park, Y., & Lee, S. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-36439-z · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Tang, Y., Tang, X., Zhu, Z., Gao, C., Liu, L., Zhao, F., & Zhang, S. (2025) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2025ef006060 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Robles, K. P. V., Solmerin, J. G., Pugat, G. C. E., & Monjardin, C. E. F. (2026) · Water · doi:10.3390/w18010119 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
A Systematic Review of Deep Learning Applications in Streamflow Data Augmentation and ForecastingPreprint
Sit, M. A., Demiray, B. Z., & Demir, İ. (2022) · doi:10.31223/x5hm08 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Khoshkalam, Y., Rousseau, A. N., Rahmani, F., Shen, C., & Abbasnezhadi, K. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132540 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Self-citationLe, M., Kim, H., Adam, S., Xuan, H., Beling, P. A., & Lakshmi, V. (2022) · doi:10.5194/hess-2022-320 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
A Mass Conservation Relaxed (MCR) LSTM Model for Streamflow Simulation Across CONUS
Wang, Y., Zhang, L., Erichson, N. B., & Yang, T. (2025) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2024wr039131 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Yang, Y., Pan, M., Feng, D., Xiao, M., Dixon, T., Hartman, R. K., Shen, C., Song, Y., Sengupta, A., Monache, L. D., et al. (2025) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-29-5453-2025 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Self-citationMarasini, U., & Pokhrel, M. (2024) · Discover Civil Engineering · doi:10.1007/s44290-024-00084-w · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Chen, S., Mao, Q., Feng, Y., Li, H., Ma, D., Zhao, Y., Liu, J., & Cheng, H. (2024) · Resources Environment and Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.resenv.2024.100177 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
A generalised hydrological model for streamflow prediction using wavelet Ensembling
Panda, C., Panda, K. C., Singh, R. M., Singh, R., & Singh, V. P. (2025) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132883 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Zheng, D., Zhu, W., Han, Y., & Lv, A. (2025) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133119 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Ren, C., Chang, J., Wang, X., Niu, C., Wang, L., & Zhang, J. (2025) · Water Resources Management · doi:10.1007/s11269-025-04117-6 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Xue, L., & Zhu, Y. (2025) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134122 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Zwart, J. A., Diaz, J., Hamshaw, S. D., Oliver, S. K., Ross, J. C., Sleckman, M. J., Appling, A., Corson-Dosch, H. R., Jia, X., Read, J. S., et al. (2023) · Frontiers in Water · doi:10.3389/frwa.2023.1184992 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Nguyen, V. T., Tran, V. N., Tran, H., Bình, Đ. V., Duong, T. D., Dang, T. D., & Ebeling, P. (2025) · Ecological Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.102994 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification
Willard, J., & Varadharajan, C. (2025) · Journal of Geophysical Research Machine Learning and Computation · doi:10.1029/2025jh000732 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Ougahi, J. H., & Rowan, J. S. (2026) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2025wr041194 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Hou, M., Wei, J., Chu, H., Shi, Y., Ayantobo, O. O., Xu, J., Zhu, X., & Ren, Y. Q. (2022) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101271 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Real-Time Streamflow Forecasting Framework, Implementation and Post-Analysis Using Deep LearningPreprint
Xiang, Z., & Demir, İ. (2022) · doi:10.31223/x5bw6r · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Li, P., Song, Y., Pan, M., Lawson, K., & Shen, C. (2025) · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-29-6829-2025 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationBohl, J. P., Wood, R. R., Frank, C., Astagneau, P. C., Peters, J., & Brunner, M. I. (2026) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-30-4667-2026 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Fast urban flood modeling informing response decisions: Model development and future perspectives
Duan, T., Li, P., Huang, P., & Wei, W. (2025) · Advanced Engineering Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.aei.2025.104152 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Quilty, J., & Jahangir, M. S. (2026) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134986 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Toward routing river water in land surface models with recurrent neural networks
Lima, M., Deck, K. M., Dunbar, O. R. A., & Schneider, T. (2025) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-29-3145-2025 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Improving trans-regional hydrological modelling by combining LSTM with big hydrological data
Tang, S., Sun, F., Zhang, Q., Singh, V. P., & Yao, F. (2025) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102257 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Rahmani, J., Shen, C., & Ameli, A. (2026) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2025wr040280 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Self-citationOu, Z., & Zheng, Y. (2026) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2025gl121604 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Tuan, T. T. (2024) · Water Practice & Technology · doi:10.2166/wpt.2024.181 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Yu, Q., & Tolson, B. A. (2026) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135046 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Geospatial Foundation Embeddings as Transferable Catchment Descriptors
Liu, J., Shen, C., Yang, Y., Ji, H., Lawson, K., & Kraabel, N. (2026) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2026gl122814 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationHuang, S., Nan, T., & Yueling, W. A. N. G. (2026) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135700 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
The representation of rivers in operational ocean forecasting systems: a review
Matte, P., Wilkin, J., & Staneva, J. V. (2025) · State of the Planet · doi:10.5194/sp-5-opsr-19-2025 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Song, X., Yi, S., Liu, H., Shen, Y., & Lu, F. (2025) · Science China Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11430-024-1630-7 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Comparison of Multiple Indirect Approaches to Estimate Streamflow in the Osage and Severn Rivers
Vatanchi, S. M., & Maghrebi, M. F. (2025) · Journal of Hydrologic Engineering · doi:10.1061/jhyeff.heeng-6409 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Li, Q., & Zhao, T. (2024) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2841 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
宋, 昕., Yi, S., Liu, H., Yalan, S., & Lu, F. (2025) · SCIENTIA SINICA Terrae · doi:10.1360/sste-2024-0299 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Onyutha, C. (2025) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ae2a60 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Basirifard, M., Zhang, J., Cao, J., Liu, X., Hong, Y., & Yang, T. (2026) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136204 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
GRHyMoLAP: A process-driven ODE catchment hydrology model inspired by GR4J and HyMoLAP approaches
Houénafa, S. E., Latella, M., Gohouede, L. C., & Sezen, C. (2026) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135597 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
(2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-2022-113-rc1
(2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-2022-113-cc1
Mai, J. (2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-2022-113-ac2
Mai, J. (2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-2022-113-ac1
(2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-2022-111-rc1
(2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-2022-111-rc2
Feng, D., Beck, H. E., Lawson, K. E., et al. (2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-2022-245-cc1
(2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-2022-113-rc2
Sun, A. (2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-2022-111-ac2
- Authors
- Feng, D., Lawson, K., & Shen, C.
- Affiliations
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Shen, Chaopeng
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2021-07-19
- Volume
- 48
- Issue
- 14
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W3174646361
- Cited by
- 162
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 20 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 38 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 1
- FWCI
- 9.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (EAR#1832294)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geology › Environmental Monitoring and Data Management
- Keywords
- streamflow forecasting, deep neural network, ensemble learning, feature selection, soft information, satellite soil moisture, low flow simulation, data-scarce basins, forecast uncertainty, ungauged basins
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review