Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War Results in Enhanced Surface Ultraviolet Radiation
Open accessAbstract
For the first time, we use a modern climate model with interactive chemistry including the effects of aerosols on photolysis rates to simulate the consequences of regional and global scale nuclear wars (injecting 5 and 150 Tg of soot respectively) for the ozone layer and surface ultraviolet (UV) light. For a global nuclear war, heating in the stratosphere, reduced photolysis, and an increase in catalytic loss from the HO x cycle cause a 15 year‐long reduction in the ozone column, with a peak loss of 75% globally and 65% in the tropics. This is larger than predictions from the 1980s, which assumed large injections of nitrogen oxides (NO x), but did not include the effects of smoke. NO x from the fireball and the fires provide a small (5%) increase to the global average ozone loss for the first few years. Initially, soot would shield the surface from UV‐B, but UV Index values would become extreme: greater than 35 in the tropics for 4 years, and greater than 45 during the summer in the southern polar regions for 3 years. For a regional war, global column ozone would be reduced by 25% with recovery taking 12 years. This is similar to previous simulations, but with a faster recovery time due to a shorter lifetime for soot in our simulations. In‐line photolysis provides process specific action spectra enabling future integration with biogeochemistry models and allows output that quantifies the potential health impacts from changes in surface UV for this and other larger aerosol injections.
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This finding is broadly consistent with previous studies that examined UV responses to SAI, including recent work highlighting that while stratospheric aerosol perturbations can modify photolysis rates, the net surface UV changes tend to be modest.
“This finding is broadly consistent with previous studies that examined UV responses to SAI, including recent work highlighting that while stratospheric aerosol perturbations can modify photolysis rates, the net surface UV changes tend to be modest (Bardeen et al., 2021).”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Bardeen et al., 2021
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredExclusion of aerosol optical depth from the TUV calculations in WACCM4 only resulted in a small difference in overall ozone column changes due to minimal differences in ozone loss rates, so this shortcoming in the simulations is not likely to significantly impact the conclusions.
“A study by Bardeen et al. (2021) using a previous version of WACCM (WACCM4), but modified to include online Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible (TUV) model calculations, showed that the exclusion of aerosol optical depth from the TUV calculations only resulted in a small difference in the overall ozone column changes due to minimal differences in the overall ozone loss rates, leading us to conclu”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Bardeen et al., 2021
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSurface ozone and downward ultraviolet radiation would also be impacted by nuclear war.
“Surface ozone and downward ultraviolet radiation would also be impacted by nuclear war 36”
From Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection (2022) · cites this paper as [36]
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Xia, L., Robock, A., Scherrer, K., Harrison, C. S., Bodirsky, B. L., Weindl, I., Jägermeyr, J., Bardeen, C. G., Toon, O. B., & Heneghan, R. (2022) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0 · Cited by 398 · see citing works
“Surface ozone and downward ultraviolet radiation would also be impacted by nuclear war 36 , but CLM5crop is not able to consider those impacts, which might exacerbate the losses.”
BackgroundSelf-citationStratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions
Bernhard, G. H., Bais, A. F., Aucamp, P. J., Klekociuk, A. R., Liley, J. B., & McKenzie, R. L. (2023) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1007/s43630-023-00371-y · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far
Robock, A. D., Xia, L., Harrison, C. S., Coupe, J., Toon, O. B., & Bardeen, C. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-6691-2023 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Self-citationA New Ocean State After Nuclear War
Harrison, C. S., Rohr, T. W., DuVivier, A. K., Maroon, E. A., Bachman, S., Bardeen, C., Coupe, J., Garza, V., Heneghan, R., Lovenduski, N. S., et al. (2022) · AGU Advances · doi:10.1029/2021av000610 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Self-citationIsland refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight‐reducing catastrophes
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2022) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.14072 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Ruff, T. A. (2022) · Journal of Public Health Policy · doi:10.1057/s41271-021-00331-9 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Seaweed as a Resilient Food Solution After a Nuclear War
Jehn, F. U., Dingal, F. J., Mill, A., Harrison, C. S., Ilin, E., Roleda, M. Y., James, S. C., & Denkenberger, D. (2024) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef003710 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Boyd, M., Ragnarsson, S., Terry, S., Payne, B., & Wilson, N. (2024) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.14297 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Wilson, N., Payne, B., & Boyd, M. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-35354-7 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Ma, J. H., Jeong, J. H., Kang, S. J., Park, M. H., Ha, H. J., Kim, E., You, S., Kim, W., Park, S., & Kang, S. J. (2024) · Advanced Optical Materials · doi:10.1002/adom.202400166 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Maladaptation in cereal crop landraces following a soot-producing climate catastrophe
McLaughlin, C. M., Shi, Y., Viswanathan, V., Sawers, R. J. H., Kemanian, A. R., & Lasky, J. R. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-59488-6 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Wilson, N., Prickett, M., & Boyd, M. (2022) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2022.05.13.22275065 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: the nuclear winter case
Shi, Y., Montes, F., Gioia, F. D., Xia, L., Bardeen, C., Anderson, C. T., Gil, Y., Khider, D., Ratnakar, V., & Kemanian, A. R. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adcfb5 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationOpen-Source Flexible Material Tensile Testing Apparatus
Woods, M., Nauta, N., & Pearce, J. M. (2024) · Hardware · doi:10.3390/hardware2010002 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Coupe, J., Lovenduski, N. S., Gleason, L. S., Levy, M. N., Krumhardt, K. M., Lindsay, K., Bardeen, C., Tabor, C., Harrison, C. S., MacLeod, K. G., et al. (2025) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-18-8217-2025 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Self-citationWang, C., Visioni, D., Chua, G., & Bednarz, E. M. (2026) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-26-1339-2026 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Nuclear Weapons, Climate Disruption and Planetary Health
Ruff, T. A. (2024) · CABI eBooks · doi:10.1079/9781800620025.0003 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Tomazzeli, O. G., Palancar, G. G., Minschwaner, K., Ji, A., Madronich, S., & Fernández, R. P. (2025) · Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer · doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2025.109678 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sun-reducing catastrophesPreprint
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1927222/v1 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.001.0001 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationWinstead, D. J., Lee, M., Brossi, M. J. D. L., Connolly, E. L., & Gioia, F. D. (2025) · Journal of Agriculture and Food Research · doi:10.1016/j.jafr.2025.102178 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Yook, S., Solomon, S., Bardeen, C., & Stone, K. A. (2025) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2025ef006866 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationIsland refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sun-reducing catastrophesPreprint
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1927222/v2 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
THE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR AND THE IMPACT ON THE SOCIAL ORGANISATION OF THE MODERN NATION-STATE
MARINOV, M. (2022) · INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERINCE STRATEGIESXXI · doi:10.53477/2971-8813-22-47
Robock, A. D., Xia, L., Harrison, C. S., et al. (2023) · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-852-rc1
Robock, A. D., Xia, L., Harrison, C. S., et al. (2023) · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-852-rc2
Robock, A. D. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-852-ac1
Self-citationClimatic and ecological responses to Bennu-type asteroid collisions
Dai, L., & Timmermann, A. (2025) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adq5399
How Many Bombs Are Out There, and How Could They Be Delivered?
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0009
Self-citationToon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0001
Self-citationImpacts on Humans of Nuclear War
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0015
Self-citationPreface: How We Met and a Brief History
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.002.0005
Self-citationCan We Stop an Asteroid or Comet Collision in the Future?
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0006
Self-citationToon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.002.0004
Self-citationClimate Disaster, Climate Models, and Natural Analogs
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0014
Self-citationWorldwide Fires Killed the Dinosaurs
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0005
Self-citationToon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0019
Self-citationClues from Craters, Assured Destruction, and Ejecta Layers
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0004
Self-citationToon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0013
Self-citationWill Humans Become Extinct from an Asteroid Collision or a Nuclear War?
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0017
Self-citationAssured Destruction by Nuclear Explosions
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0012
Self-citationScenarios for War and Near Misses
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0010
Self-citationToon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0008
Self-citationAre You Being Targeted with a Nuclear Weapon?
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0011
Self-citationToon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0018
Self-citationThe Power of Asteroids and Comets
Toon, O. B., & Robock, A. D. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780197799734.003.0003
Self-citationAli, J. (2025) · Global NEST Journal · doi:10.30955/gnj.06602
Jehn, F. U. (2023) · doi:10.59350/632mm-dak33
The climate effects of nuclear war
Ruff, T. (2025) · Medicine Conflict & Survival · doi:10.1080/13623699.2025.2560274
Nuclear war, nuclear winter, and the food system
Jehn, F. U. (2026) · doi:10.59350/hkngk-5fq39
Nuclear war, nuclear winter, and the food system
Jehn, F. U. (2026) · doi:10.59350/0by4q-nng34
Inkjet-printed flexible photodiode with synaptic characteristics
Singh, M., Puthanveettil, M. H. P., & Dasgupta, S. (2025) · IEEE International Conference on Emerging Electronics (ICEE) · doi:10.1109/icee67165.2025.11409901
Jehn, F. U. (2023) · doi:10.59350/99g5e-60q98
1439 Nuclear Weapons and their Health Consequences
Ruff, T. A. (2025) · De Gruyter eBooks · doi:10.1515/9783111250144-010
Yook, S., Stone, K. A., Kang, J. M., Hwang, J., Zhuo, Z., & Pausata, F. S. R. (2026) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2026gl122395
- Authors
- Bardeen, C. G., Kinnison, D. E., Toon, O. B., Mills, M. J., Vitt, F., Xia, L., Jägermeyr, J., Lovenduski, N. S., Scherrer, K. J. N., Clyne, M., & Robock, A.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- University of Colorado Boulder (US)
- Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (US)
- Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ES)
- Corresponding author
- Bardeen, Charles G.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2021-09-24
- Volume
- 126
- Issue
- 18
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-897X
- 2169-8996
- OpenAlex
- W3196661613
- Cited by
- 55
- References
- 90
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 8
- FWCI
- 1.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Open Philanthropy Project
- National Science Foundation (ACI‐1532235; ACI‐1532236)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Nuclear Issues and Defense
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Keywords
- nuclear war, ozone depletion, surface ultraviolet radiation, UV-B radiation, soot aerosols, photolysis, stratospheric heating, ozone recovery, UV index
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