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Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS‐E2.1

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Nazarenko, Larissa S., Tausnev, Nick, Russell, Gary L., Rind, David, Miller, Ron L., Schmidt, Gavin A., Bauer, Susanne E., Kelley, Maxwell +38 more·2022·Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
DOI 10.1029/2021ms002871
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Abstract

This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS‐E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: A non‐interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect and the One‐Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0°C and 2.9°C for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: The GISS ocean model (E2.1‐G) and HYCOM (E2.1‐H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, and SSP5‐8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5°C to 5.2°C relative to 1,850–1,880 mean temperature. Two high‐mitigation scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1‐H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5‐8.5, the range is 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due to about 15% larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate response in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern Hemisphere in both E2.1‐G (−1.21 × 10 6 km 2/°C) and E2.1‐H models (−0.94 × 10 6 km 2/°C). Both coupled models project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. The largest decrease of 56%–65% in the 21st century overturning stream function is produced in the warmest scenario SSP5‐8.5 in the E2.1‐G model, comparable to the reduction in the corresponding CMIP5 GISS‐E2 RCP8.5 simulation. Both low‐end scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 also simulate substantial reductions of the overturning (9%–37%) with slow recovery of about 10% by the end of the 21st century (relative to the maximum decrease at the middle of the 21st century).

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  • SSP2-4.5 represents a moderate mitigation and policy pathway, in which partial greenhouse gas reductions are achieved, leading to some reductions in CO2, CH4, and co-emitted air pollutants, and consequently modest improvements in air quality relative to higher-emission futures.

    “SSP2-4.5 represents a moderate mitigation and policy pathway, in which partial greenhouse gase reductions are achieved, leading to some reductions in CO2, CH4, and co-emitted air pollutants, and consequently modest improvements in air quality relative to higher-emission futures (Hussain, 2025; Nazarenko et al., 2022; Shim et al., 2021).”

    From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Nazarenko et al., 2022

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  • A reduction in surface pollutants is generally expected in future scenarios independently of SAI implementation.

    “we generally expect a reduction in surface pollutants in future scenarios independently of SAI implementation (Fricko et al., 2017; Hussain, 2025; Nazarenko et al., 2022)”

    From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Nazarenko et al., 2022

    Section 3 (page unavailable) reports reduced aerosol emissions in two low-emission SSP scenarios and weaker negative aerosol forcing in most scenarios, consistent with a reduction in some pollution-related emissions without SAI. It does not establish a general reduction in surface pollutant concentrations, and it does not compare scenarios with and without SAI. (LLM, conf=0.85)

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Authors
Nazarenko, L. S., Tausnev, N., Russell, G. L., Rind, D., Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Bauer, S. E., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cesana, G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B. I., Cruz, C. A., Del Genio, A. D., Elsaesser, G. S., Faluvegi, G., Kiang, N. Y., Kim, D., Lacis, A. A., Leboissetier, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Matthews, E. E., McDermid, S., Mezuman, K., Murray, L. T., Oinas, V., Orbe, C., García‐Pando, C. P., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Romanou, A., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tsigaridis, K., Tselioudis, G., Weng, E., Wu, J., & Yao, M.
Affiliations
  • Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
  • Goddard Space Flight Center (US)
  • NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA
  • University of Washington (US)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
  • New York University (US)
  • University of Rochester (US)
  • Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ES)
  • Duke University (US)
Corresponding author
Nazarenko, Larissa S.
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published
2022-06-30
Volume
14
Issue
7
ISSN
1942-2466 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1029/2021ms002871
OpenAlex
W4221134408
Cited by
104
References
5
Citations by year
2026: 18 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 37 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 4
FWCI
8.57
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • CU Scholar (University of Colorado Boulder) (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) (submittedVersion)
  • UPCommons institutional repository (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Funders
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX12AD05A)
  • Goddard Space Flight Center
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Keywords
future climate change, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, CMIP6, climate sensitivity, aerosol indirect effect, surface air temperature, precipitation change, sea ice decline, transient climate response, anthropogenic forcing, SSP5-8.5, SSP1-2.6, climate change projections

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