Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Open accessAbstract
• Narratives for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) focusing on the land sector are presented. • Integrated Assessment Models have been applied for the SSPs to assess potential future developments for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, food provision and prices. • Model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures. • SSP-based land use pathways aim at supporting future climate research, climate impact analysis, biodiversity research and sustainability science. In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 743 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from −54 to 402 Gt CO 2 ). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Several selected studies present regional-level food security projections that indicate different patterns and futures, but the analysis cannot analyze them.
“Several of the selected studies present food security projections at the broad regional level 13,64,67 that clearly indicate different patterns and futures, which we are unable to analyse.”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [64]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Global Consequences of Land Use
Foley, J. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S. R., Chapin, F. S., Coe, M. T., Daily, G. C., Gibbs, H. K., et al. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1111772 · Cited by 13,272 · see citing works
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z · Cited by 7,741 · see citing works
Self-citationGlobal food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture
Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J., & Befort, B. L. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1116437108 · Cited by 7,692 · see citing works
Awais, A. (2015) · Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) · doi:10.17632/zcvgc6m58h.1 · Cited by 6,790 · see citing works
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 · Cited by 6,607 · see citing works
Self-citationForests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests
Bonan, G. B. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1155121 · Cited by 6,321 · see citing works
Special report on emissions scenarios
Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J. M., Davis, G. F., de Vries, B. J. M., Fenhann, J. V., Gaffin, S. R., Gregory, K., Griibler, A., Jung, T. Y., Kram, T., et al. (2000) · eScholarship (California Digital Library) · Cited by 3,423 · see citing works
Self-citationO’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004 · Cited by 3,359 · see citing works
Self-citationGlobal land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity
Lambin, E. F., & Meyfroidt, P. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1100480108 · Cited by 3,160 · see citing works
World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revisionPreprint
Alexandratos, N., & Bruinsma, J. (2012) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.288998 · Cited by 3,155 · see citing works
Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management
Mueller, N. D., Gerber, J., Johnston, M., Ray, D. K., Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11420 · Cited by 2,832 · see citing works
A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2 · Cited by 2,716 · see citing works
Self-citationScience for managing ecosystem services: Beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Carpenter, S. R., Mooney, H. A., Agard, J., Capistrano, D., DeFries, R. S., Díaz, S., Dietz, T., Duraiappah, A. K., Oteng-Yeboah, A., Pereira, H. M., et al. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0808772106 · Cited by 2,257 · see citing works
KC, S., & Lutz, W. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004 · Cited by 1,337 · see citing works
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Frolking, S., Betts, R. A., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, J. P., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R. A., Janetos, A., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2 · Cited by 1,284 · see citing works
Self-citationGreenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification
Burney, J. A., Davis, S. J., & Lobell, D. B. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0914216107 · Cited by 1,128 · see citing works
Domesticated nature: Shaping landscapes and ecosystems for human welfare
Kareiva, P., Watts, S., McDonald, R., & Boucher, T. (2007) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1140170 · Cited by 945 · see citing works
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
van Vuuren, D. P., Stehfest, E., Gernaat, D., Doelman, J., van den Berg, M., Harmsen, M. J. H. M., de Boer, H. S., Bouwman, L., Daioglou, V., Edelenbosch, O. Y., et al. (2016) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008 · Cited by 909 · see citing works
Self-citationLong-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E., & Magné, B. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004 · Cited by 893 · see citing works
Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
Nelson, G., Valin, H., Sands, R., Havlík, P., Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Heyhoe, E., et al. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.1222465110 · Cited by 836 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate benefits of changing diet
Stehfest, E., Bouwman, L., van Vuuren, D. P., den Elzen, M. G. J., Eickhout, B., & Kabat, P. (2009) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9534-6 · Cited by 815 · see citing works
Self-citationA new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture
van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., O’Neill, B. C., Ebi, K. L., Riahi, K., Carter, T. R., Edmonds, J., Stéphane Hallegatte, A., Kram, T., Mathur, R., et al. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1 · Cited by 794 · see citing works
Self-citationFossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B. L., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015 · Cited by 735 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Contribution of Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use activities to Global Warming, 1990–2012
Tubiello, F. N., Salvatore, M., Ferrara, A. F., House, J. I., Federici, S., Rossi, S., Biancalani, R., Cóndor, R. D., Jacobs, H., Flammini, A., et al. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12865 · Cited by 671 · see citing works
Smith, P., Haberl, H., Popp, A., Erb, K., Lauk, C., Harper, R. J., Tubiello, F. N., Pinto, A. D. S., Jafari, M., Sohi, S., et al. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12160 · Cited by 649 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change mitigation through livestock system transitions
Havlík, P., Valin, H., Herrero, M., Obersteiner, M. H., Schmid, E., Rufino, M. C., Mosnier, A., Thornton, P. K., Böttcher, H., Conant, R. T., et al. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1308044111 · Cited by 639 · see citing works
Self-citationLand management and land-cover change have impacts of similar magnitude on surface temperature
Luyssaert, S., Jammet, M., Stoy, P. C., Estel, S., Pongratz, J., Ceschia, É., Churkina, G., Don, A., Erb, K., Ferlicoq, M., et al. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2196 · Cited by 627 · see citing works
SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Masui, T., Takahashi, K., Herran, D. S., Dai, H., Hijioka, Y., & Kainuma, M. (2016) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.009 · Cited by 614 · see citing works
Self-citationAgricultural intensification and changes in cultivated areas, 1970–2005
Rudel, T. K., Schneider, L., Uriarte, M., Turner, B. L., DeFries, R., Lawrence, D., Geoghegan, J., Hecht, S., Ickowitz, A., Lambin, E. F., et al. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0812540106 · Cited by 611 · see citing works
Bodirsky, B. L., Popp, A., Lotze‐Campen, H., Dietrich, J. P., Rolinski, S., Weindl, I., Schmitz, C., Müller, C., Bonsch, M., Humpenöder, F., et al. (2014) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms4858 · Cited by 580 · see citing works
Self-citationKriegler, E., Edmonds, J., Stéphane Hallegatte, A., Ebi, K. L., Kram, T., Riahi, K., Winkler, H., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0971-5 · Cited by 563 · see citing works
Self-citationThe future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models
Valin, H., Sands, R. D., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Nelson, G. C., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Bodirsky, B., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., et al. (2014) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12089 · Cited by 561 · see citing works
Self-citationKriegler, E., O’Neill, B. C., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Lempert, R. J., Moss, R. H., & Wilbanks, T. (2012) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005 · Cited by 548 · see citing works
Self-citationPutting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks
Preston, B. L., Yuen, E. J., & Westaway, R. (2011) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-011-0129-1 · Cited by 527 · see citing works
Pitman, A. J., de Noblet‐Ducoudré, N., Cruz, F. A. T., Davin, É. L., Bonan, G. B., Brovkin, V. A., Claussen, M. A., Delire, C., Ganzeveld, L., Gayler, V., et al. (2009) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl039076 · Cited by 515 · see citing works
Smith, P., Gregory, P. J., van Vuuren, D., Obersteiner, M., Havlík, P., Rounsevell, M., Woods, J., Stehfest, E., & Bellarby, J. (2010) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0127 · Cited by 487 · see citing works
Self-citationProtecting climate with forests
Jackson, R. B., Randerson, J. T., Canadell, J. G., Anderson, R. G., Avissar, R., Baldocchi, D., Bonan, G. B., Caldeira, K., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Field, C. B., et al. (2008) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044006 · Cited by 419 · see citing works
Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production
Popp, A., Lotze‐Campen, H., & Bodirsky, B. L. (2010) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.001 · Cited by 417 · see citing works
Self-citationShared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Emmerling, J., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Hilaire, J., Eom, J., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Mouratiadou, I., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006 · Cited by 417 · see citing works
Self-citationStehfest, E., van Vuuren, D. P., Bouwman, L., & Kram, T. (2014) · Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) · Cited by 400 · see citing works
Self-citationWiebe, K., Lotze‐Campen, H., Sands, R. D., Tabeau, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Biewald, A., Bodirsky, B. L., Islam, S., Kavallari, A., Mason-D’Croz, D., et al. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085010 · Cited by 336 · see citing works
Self-citationBiophysical considerations in forestry for climate protection
Anderson, R. G., Canadell, J. G., Randerson, J. T., Jackson, R. B., Hungate, B. A., Baldocchi, D., Ban‐Weiss, G., Bonan, G. B., Caldeira, K., Cao, L., et al. (2010) · Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment · doi:10.1890/090179 · Cited by 325 · see citing works
Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use
van Vuuren, D. P., Kok, M., Girod, B., Lucas, P., & de Vries, B. J. M. (2012) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.06.001 · Cited by 314 · see citing works
Self-citationLand-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison
Schmitz, C., van Meijl, H., Kyle, P., Nelson, G. C., Fujimori, S., Gurgel, A., Havlík, P., Heyhoe, E., Mason-D’Croz, D., Popp, A., et al. (2013) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12090 · Cited by 309 · see citing works
Self-citationGlobal Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century
Bodirsky, B. L., Rolinski, S., Biewald, A., Weindl, I., Popp, A., & Lotze-Campen, H. (2015) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0139201 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
Self-citationA new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions
Ebi, K. L., Stéphane Hallegatte, A., Kram, T., Arnell, N. W., Carter, T. R., Edmonds, J., Kriegler, E., Mathur, R., O’Neill, B. C., Riahi, K., et al. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0912-3 · Cited by 275 · see citing works
Self-citationvon Lampe, M., Willenbockel, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Cai, Y., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., et al. (2014) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12086 · Cited by 270 · see citing works
Self-citationObersteiner, M., Azar, C., Kauppi, P., Möllersten, K., Moreira, J., Nilsson, S., Read, P., Riahi, K., Schlamadinger, B., Yamagata, Y., et al. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.294.5543.786b · Cited by 267 · see citing works
Self-citationLand-use protection for climate change mitigation
Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Weindl, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Bonsch, M., Lotze‐Campen, H., Müller, C., Biewald, A., Rolinski, S., Stevanović, M., et al. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2444 · Cited by 212 · see citing works
Self-citationBiodiversity and ecosystem services require IPBES to take novel approach to scenarios
Kok, M., Kok, K. I., Peterson, G., Hill, R., Agard, J. B. R., & Carpenter, S. R. (2016) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-016-0354-8 · Cited by 208 · see citing works
Popp, A., Dietrich, J. P., Lotze-Campen, H., Klein, D., Bauer, N., Krause, M., Beringer, T., Gerten, D., & Edenhofer, O. (2011) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034017 · Cited by 203 · see citing works
Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies
Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Dietrich, J. P., Klein, D., Lotze‐Campen, H., Bonsch, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Weindl, I., Stevanović, M., & Müller, C. (2014) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064029 · Cited by 198 · see citing works
Self-citationTrading more food: Implications for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and the food system
Schmitz, C., Biewald, A., Lotze‐Campen, H., Popp, A., Dietrich, J. P., Bodirsky, B. L., Krause, M. M., & Weindl, I. (2011) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.013 · Cited by 191 · see citing works
Self-citationLivestock production and the global environment: Consume less or produce better?
Steinfeld, H., & Gerber, P. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1012541107 · Cited by 186 · see citing works
Popp, A., Rose, S. K., Calvin, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Dietrich, J. P., Wise, M., Stehfest, E., Humpenöder, F., Kyle, P. G., van Vliet, J., et al. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0926-x · Cited by 177 · see citing works
Self-citationHavlík, P., Valin, H., Mosnier, A., Obersteiner, M. H., Baker, J. S., Herrero, M., Rufino, M. C., & Schmid, E. (2012) · American Journal of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1093/ajae/aas085 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
Self-citationWeindl, I., Lotze‐Campen, H., Popp, A., Müller, C., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Schmitz, C., & Rolinski, S. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094021 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Self-citationDietrich, J. P., Schmitz, C., Lotze‐Campen, H., Popp, A., & Müller, C. (2013) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.003 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Self-citationWise, M., CALVIN, K., Kyle, P., Luckow, P., & EDMONDS, J. (2014) · Climate Change Economics · doi:10.1142/s2010007814500031 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Self-citationPredicting the deforestation-trend under different carbon-prices
Kindermann, G., Obersteiner, M. H., Rametsteiner, E., & McCallum, I. (2006) · Carbon Balance and Management · doi:10.1186/1750-0680-1-15 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Self-citationComparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system
Robinson, S., van Meijl, H., Willenbockel, D., Valin, H., Fujimori, S., Masui, T., Sands, R., Wise, M., Calvin, K., Havlik, P., et al. (2014) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/agec.12087 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Self-citationLand use representation in a global CGE model for long-term simulation: CET vs. logit functions
Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Masui, T., et al. (2014) · Food Security · doi:10.1007/s12571-014-0375-z · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Self-citationThe effect of agricultural trade liberalisation on land-use related greenhouse gas emissions
Verburg, R. W., Stehfest, E., Woltjer, G. B., et al. (2009) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.06.004 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries
Hussein, Z., Hertel, T. W., & Golub, A. (2013) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035009 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Valdivia, R. O., Antle, J. M., Rosenzweig, C. E., et al. (2015) · ICP series on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation · doi:10.1142/9781783265640_0005 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
SSPs from an impact and adaptation perspective
Wilbanks, T. J., & Ebi, K. L. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0903-4 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios
Jones, A. D., Calvin, K., Collins, W. D., & Edmonds, J. (2015) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1411-5 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP): Rationale and experimental designPreprint
Lawrence, D. M., HURTT, G. C., Arneth, A., et al. (2016) · doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-76 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Carpenter, S., Pingali, P., 2005. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment-Scenarios Assessment. Island Press, Washington, DC.
- Riahi, K., Dentener, F., Gielen, D., Grubler, A., Jewell, J., Klimont, Z., et al (2012). Global Energy Assessment Chapter 17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development. In Global Energy Assessment -Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 1203-1306.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 · Cited by 6,607 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016 · Cited by 5,241 · see citing works
Self-citationvan Dijk, M., Morley, T., Rau, M. L., & Saghai, Y. (2021) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00322-9 · Cited by 2,339 · see citing works
Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects
Fuss, S., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f · Cited by 1,525 · see citing works
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C
Rogelj, J., Popp, A., Calvin, K. V., Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., Fujimori, S., Strefler, J., Hasegawa, T., Marangoni, G., et al. (2018) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3 · Cited by 1,341 · see citing works
Self-citationGlobal priority areas for ecosystem restoration
Strassburg, B. B. N., Iribarrem, A., Beyer, H. L., Cordeiro, C. L., Crouzeilles, R., Jakovac, C. C., Braga Junqueira, A., Lacerda, E., Latawiec, A. E., Balmford, A., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2784-9 · Cited by 1,175 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk
Carlson, C. J., Albery, G. F., Merow, C., Trisos, C. H., Zipfel, C. M., Eskew, E. A., Olival, K. J., Ross, N., & Bansal, S. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w · Cited by 1,099 · see citing works
Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S. H. M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F. A. J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J. C., Dürauer, M., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y · Cited by 922 · see citing works
Self-citationNegative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis
Minx, J. C., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Fuss, S., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9b · Cited by 865 · see citing works
Zoonotic host diversity increases in human-dominated ecosystems
Gibb, R., Redding, D. W., Chin, K. Q., Donnelly, C. A., Blackburn, T. M., Newbold, T., & Jones, K. E. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2562-8 · Cited by 880 · see citing works
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B. L., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015 · Cited by 735 · see citing works
Self-citationRisk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy
Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Havlík, P., Valin, H., Bodirsky, B. L., Doelman, J. C., Fellmann, T., Kyle, P., Koopman, J. F. L., Lotze-Campen, H., et al. (2018) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x · Cited by 564 · see citing works
Self-citationFarming with crops and rocks to address global climate, food and soil security
Beerling, D. J., Leake, J. R., Long, S. P., Scholes, J. D., Ton, J., Nelson, P. N., Bird, M., Kantzas, E., Taylor, L. L., Sarkar, B., et al. (2018) · Nature Plants · doi:10.1038/s41477-018-0108-y · Cited by 480 · see citing works
Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people
Chaplin-Kramer, R., Sharp, R. P., Weil, C., Bennett, E. M., Pascual, U., Arkema, K. K., Brauman, K. A., Bryant, B. P., Guerry, A. D., Haddad, N. M., et al. (2019) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaw3372 · Cited by 454 · see citing works
Smith, P., Adams, J., Beerling, D. J., Beringer, T., Calvin, K. V., Fuss, S., Griscom, B., Hagemann, N., Kammann, C., Kraxner, F., et al. (2019) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-101718-033129 · Cited by 380 · see citing works
Self-citationSoussana, J.-F., Lutfalla, S., Ehrhardt, F., Rosenstock, T., Lamanna, C., Havlík, P., Richards, M., Wollenberg, E. (., Chotte, J.-L., Torquebiau, E., et al. (2019) · Soil and Tillage Research · doi:10.1016/j.still.2017.12.002 · Cited by 369 · see citing works
Self-citationLand-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets
Harper, A. B., Powell, T., Cox, P. M., House, J., Huntingford, C., Lenton, T. M., Sitch, S., Burke, E., Chadburn, S. E., Collins, W. J., et al. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z · Cited by 335 · see citing works
Self-citationBiomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries
Heck, V., Gerten, D., Lucht, W., & Popp, A. (2018) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0064-y · Cited by 334 · see citing works
Self-citationvan Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Emmerling, J., Fujimori, S., KC, S., Kriegler, E., & O’Neill, B. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.009 · Cited by 330 · see citing works
Self-citationLand use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities
Mishra, A., Humpenöder, F., Churkina, G., Reyer, C. P. O., Beier, F., Bodirsky, B. L., Schellnhuber, H. J., Lotze-Campen, H., & Popp, A. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32244-w · Cited by 279 · see citing works
Self-citationAgricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target
Frank, S., Havlík, P., Stehfest, E., van Meijl, H., Witzke, P., Pérez-Domínguez, I., van Dijk, M., Doelman, J. C., Fellmann, T., Koopman, J. F. L., et al. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0358-8 · Cited by 272 · see citing works
Self-citationMeeting the Food Security Challenge for Nine Billion People in 2050: What Impact on Forests?
Bahar, N. H. A., Lo, M., Sanjaya, M., Van Vianen, J., Alexander, P., Ickowitz, A., & Sunderland, T. (2020) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102056 · Cited by 259 · see citing works
Key determinants of global land-use projections
Stehfest, E., van Zeist, W.-J., Valin, H., Havlik, P., Popp, A., Kyle, P., Tabeau, A., Mason-D’Croz, D., Hasegawa, T., Bodirsky, B. L., et al. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w · Cited by 247 · see citing works
Self-citationFood–energy–water implications of negative emissions technologies in a +1.5 °C future
Fuhrman, J., McJeon, H., Patel, P., Doney, S. C., Shobe, W. M., & Clarens, A. F. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0876-z · Cited by 229 · see citing works
Decoupling livestock from land use through industrial feed production pathways
Pikaar, I., Matassa, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Weindl, I., Humpenöder, F., Rabaey, K., Boon, N., Bruschi, M., Yuan, Z., van Zanten, H., et al. (2018) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.8b00216 · Cited by 186 · see citing works
Self-citationMicrobes and the next nitrogen revolution
Pikaar, I., Matassa, S., Rabaey, K., Bodirsky, B. L., Popp, A., Herrero, M., & Verstraete, W. (2017) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b00916 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios
Vaughan, N. E., Gough, C., Mander, S., Littleton, E. W., Welfle, A., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa02 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Solar geoengineering can alleviate climate change pressures on crop yields
Fan, Y., Tjiputra, J., Muri, H., Lombardozzi, D., Park, C.-E., Wu, S., & Keith, D. (2021) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00278-w · Cited by 50 · see citing works
de Oliveira Garcia, W., Amann, T., Hartmann, J., Karstens, K., Popp, A., Boysen, L. R., Smith, P., & Goll, D. (2019) · doi:10.5194/bg-2019-386 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Self-citationPadró, R., Tello, E., Marco, I., Olarieta, J. R., Grasa, M. M., & Font, C. (2020) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124043 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
(2022) · Climate Change and Land · doi:10.1017/9781009157988.003 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Probabilistic assessment of extreme heat stress on Indian wheat yields under climate change
Zachariah, M., Mondal, A., & AghaKouchak, A. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2021gl094702 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
- Authors
- Popp, A., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Doelmann, J. C., Gusti, M., Hasegawa, T., Kyle, P., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., Takahashi, K., Valin, H., Waldhoff, S., Weindl, I., Wise, M., Kriegler, E., Lotze-Campen, H., Fricko, O., Riahi, K., & Vuuren, D. P. V.
- Affiliations
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering and Bioeconomy (DE)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Popp, Alexander
- ORCID
- Popp, Alexander
- Calvin, Katherine
- Fujimori, Shinichiro
- Humpenöder, Florian
- Stehfest, Elke
- Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
- Dietrich, Jan Philipp
- Gusti, Mykola
- Hasegawa, Tomoko
- Kyle, Page
- Obersteiner, Michael
- Tabeau, Andrzej
- Takahashi, Kiyoshi
- Valin, Hugo
- Waldhoff, Stephanie
- Weindl, Isabelle
- Wise, Marshall
- Kriegler, Elmar
- Fricko, Oliver
- Riahi, Keywan
- Vuuren, Detlef P. van
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-01
- Volume
- 42
- Pages
- 331-345
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2541697905
- Cited by
- 1,070
- References
- 68
- Citations by year
- 2026: 98 · 2025: 105 · 2024: 157 · 2023: 155 · 2022: 127 · 2021: 128 · 2020: 111 · 2019: 77 · 2018: 75 · 2017: 27 · 2016: 8 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 46.11
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RENATE (cc-by)
- Funders
- European Union’s Seventh Framework Program (603542)
- European Union-funded project An integration of mitigation and adaptation options for sustainable livestock production under climate change (266018)
- Global Environmental Research Fund (2-1402)
- Ministry of the Environment, Japan
- Integrated Assessment Research Program in the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- land use change, greenhouse gas emissions, food prices, climate change mitigation, bioenergy, carbon stocks, agricultural productivity, food demand, integrated assessment models, natural ecosystems, livestock products, biodiversity conservation, sustainability scenarios, climate impact assessment
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
