How Unexpected Was the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave?
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Abstract
The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave featured record‐smashing high temperatures, raising questions about whether extremes are changing faster than the mean, and challenging our ability to estimate the probability of the event. Here, we identify and draw on the strong relationship between the climatological higher‐order statistics of temperature (skewness and kurtosis) and the magnitude of extreme events to quantify the likelihood of comparable events using a large climate model ensemble (Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble [CESM2‐LE]). In general, CESM2 can simulate temperature anomalies as extreme as those observed in 2021, but they are rare: temperature anomalies that exceed 4.5 σ occur with an approximate frequency of one in a hundred thousand years. The historical data does not indicate that the upper tail of temperature is warming faster than the mean; however, future projections for locations with similar climatological moments to the Pacific Northwest do show significant positive trends in the probability of the most extreme events.
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The laws of physics that the method ties to encapsulate do not change from day to day.
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From Forecasting Extreme Temperatures in Siberia Using Supervised Learning and Conformal Prediction Regions (2025) · cites this paper as Mckinnon and Simpson, 2022
The Data and Anomaly Calculation section describes how the authors model temperature anomalies, and the Discussion calls for further study of the physical mechanisms behind extreme events. Neither states that the method encapsulates laws of physics or that those laws do not change from day to day. Searches for that wording and a paraphrase found no passage addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.71)
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“This seems to be in the spirit of current climate science analyses of heat waves (Mann, 2018; Mckinnon and Simpson, 2022; Petoukhov et al., 2022; Li et al, 2024); the laws of physics that we are tying to encapsulate do not change from day to day.”
Berk, R. A. (2025) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2506.02349
“Description and explanation have dominated (Mann, 2018; Mckinnon and Simpson, 2022; Petoukhov et al., 2022; Li et al, 2024; Leeper et al., 2025).”
North-West Europe hottest summer temperatures rising much faster than the meanPreprint
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A novel framework for expanding temperature intensity-duration-frequency curve utility
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Tracing atmospheric heat and moisture pathways to understand compound drought–heatwave events
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- Authors
- McKinnon, K. A., & Simpson, I. R.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Corresponding author
- McKinnon, Karen A.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2022-09-16
- Volume
- 49
- Issue
- 18
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W4296048935
- Cited by
- 83
- References
- 26
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 3
- FWCI
- 7.16
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- escholarship.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1939988, 1852977)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, temperature extremes, skewness, kurtosis, higher-order statistics, CESM2 large ensemble, climate model ensembles, temperature anomalies
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