Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting.

Jay J. J. Christensen-Szalanski, James B. Bushyhead·1981·Journal of Experimental Psychology Human Perception & Performance
DOI 10.1037//0096-1523.7.4.928

Abstract

This study reports on physicians' processing of probabilistic information while they were treating possible pneumonia patients at an outpatient clinic. Physicians overestimated the patients' probability of pneumonia but were sensitive to relative differences in the predictive value of symptoms when present and absent, and appeared to use base-rate information correctly when making clinical judgments.

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  2. On the psychology of prediction.
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Cited by (24)

  1. Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises
    Nickerson, Raymond S. · 1998 · Review of General Psychology
  2. Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment
    Barber, B. M., Odean, T. · 2001 · The Quarterly Journal of Economics
  3. Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.
    Kahneman, Daniel, Frederick, Shane · 2002 · Heuristics and Biases
  4. The trouble with overconfidence.
    Moore, Don A., Healy, Paul J. · 2008 · Psychological Review
  5. The Affect Heuristic
    Slovic, Paul, Finucane, Melissa, Peters, Ellen, MacGregor, Donald G. · 2002 · Heuristics and Biases

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This page
CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1037//0096-1523.7.4.928
The paper
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Bushyhead, J. B. (1981). Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting. Journal of Experimental Psychology Human Perception & Performance. https://doi.org/10.1037//0096-1523.7.4.928

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