The DOI matches its Crossref record; 12 of the 12 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Fault trees: sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation
Abstract
Abstract : Fault trees represent problem situations by organizing things that could go wrong into functional categories. Such trees are essential devices for analyzing and evaluating the fallibility of complex systems. They follow many different formats, sometimes by design, other times inadvertently. Major results were: people were quite insensitive to what had been left out of a fault tree, increasing the amount of detail for the tree as a whole or just for some of its branches produced small effects on perceptions, and the perceived importance of a particular branch was increased by presenting it in pieces (as two separate component branches). Aside from their relevance for the study of problem solving, such results may have important implications for how best to inform the public about technological risks and to involve it in policy decisions and how experts should perform fault-tree analyses of the risks from technological systems.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“In the unpacking effect, participants judge, say, 'being a lawyer', to be less probable than the 'unpacked' description 'being a tax, corporate, patent, or other type of lawyer' [44][45][46].”
From Bayesian Brains without Probabilities (2016) · cites this paper as [44]
Citations
Cites
Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9 · Cited by 9,984
Axten, N., Newell, A., & Simon, H. A. (1973) · Contemporary Sociology A Journal of Reviews · doi:10.2307/2063712 · Cited by 6,886
Newell, A. (1972) · Cited by 6,222
Carroll, J. S., & Payne, J. W. (2014) · Psychology Press eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781315802879 · Cited by 655
Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1976) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-010-1276-8_2 · Cited by 310
Self-citationAttribution Theory and Advertiser Credibility
Settle, R. B., & Golden, L. L. (1974) · Journal of Marketing Research · doi:10.1177/002224377401100209 · Cited by 185
Combining information from sources that vary in credibility
Birnbaum, M. H., Wong, R., & Wong, L. K. (1976) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/bf03213185 · Cited by 99
Cost benefit analysis and the art of motorcycle maintenance
Fischhoff, B. (1977) · Policy Sciences · doi:10.1007/bf01712294 · Cited by 95
Self-citationRepresentation of frequency in memory.
Howell, W. C. (1973) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/h0034648 · Cited by 68
Direct measures of availability and judgments of category frequency
Marom, T., & Fischhoff, B. (1977) · Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society · doi:10.3758/bf03336986 · Cited by 28
Self-citation
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 401–500 of 710
Risk Analysis and Technological Hazards: A Policy-Related Bibliography
Covello, V. T., & Abernathy, M. (1984) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-009-6155-5_12 · Cited by 12
Making probability judgments of future product failures: The role of mental unpacking
Biswas, D., Keller, L. R., & Burman, B. (2011) · Journal of Consumer Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jcps.2011.03.002 · Cited by 12
Residential location and education in the United States
Hanushek, E. A., & Yılmaz, K. (2022) · Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · doi:10.4337/9781789908497.00012 · Cited by 13
Roles of human factors and ergonomics in meeting the challenge of terrorism.
Nickerson, R. S. (2011) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/a0024474 · Cited by 13
Johnson, E. J. (2004) · Journal of Public Policy & Marketing · doi:10.1509/jppm.23.1.2.30402 · Cited by 12
Catastrophic Risk and Securities Design
Rode, D. C., Fischhoff, B., & Fischbeck, P. S. (2000) · Journal of Behavioral Finance · doi:10.1207/s15327760jpfm0102_3 · Cited by 13
Self-citationCan executive information systems reinforce biases?
Rai, A., Stubbart, C. I., & Paper, D. J. (1994) · Accounting Management and Information Technologies · doi:10.1016/0959-8022(94)90006-x · Cited by 12
A Review of the High‐Level Nuclear Waste Repository Siting Analysis
Gregory, R., & Lichtenstein, S. (1987) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00983.x · Cited by 12
Self-citationA general purpose computer aid to judgemental forecasting: Rationale and procedures
Wright, G., Ayton, P., & Whalley, P. (1985) · Decision Support Systems · doi:10.1016/0167-9236(85)90173-3 · Cited by 12
Gao, L., Mock, T. J., & Srivastava, R. P. (2011) · Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS) · doi:10.1109/hicss.2011.52 · Cited by 11
Temporal distance moderates description dependence of subjective probability
Bilgin, B., & Brenner, L. A. (2007) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2007.09.005 · Cited by 11
Fu, H., Zhang, Y., An, Y., Zhou, L., Peng, Y., Kong, R., & Turvey, C. G. (2021) · The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review · doi:10.1057/s10713-021-00071-6 · Cited by 16
Dynamic changes in the use of online advice in response to task success or failure
Phillips, J. G., & Landon, J. (2016) · Behaviour and Information Technology · doi:10.1080/0144929x.2016.1186734 · Cited by 11
Information Security Risk Assessment of Smartphones using Bayesian Networks
Herland, K., H�mm�inen, H., & Kekolahti, P. (2016) · Journal of Cyber Security and Mobility · doi:10.13052/jcsm2245-1439.424 · Cited by 11
Exploring subjectivity in hazard analysis
Redmill, F. J. (2002) · Engineering Management · doi:10.1049/em:20020305 · Cited by 11
Outcome trees and baseball: A study of expertise and list-length effects
Johnson, R. D., Rennie, R. D., & Wells, G. L. (1991) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/0749-5978(91)90025-o · Cited by 11
Stasko, J., & Yi, J. S. (2008) · Cited by 10
Gibson, H. D., Hall, S. G., Petroulas, P., & Tavlas, G. S. (2019) · Journal of International Money and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102112 · Cited by 20
Individuals Exhibit the Planning Fallacy for Time But Not for MoneyPreprint
Spiller, S. A., & Lynch, J. G. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1458380 · Cited by 11
Lv, D. D., & Wokutch, R. E. (2023) · Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management · doi:10.1002/csr.2618 · Cited by 11
A Resource-Rational Approach to the Causal Frame Problem.
Icard, T., & Goodman, N. D. (2015) · eScholarship (California Digital Library) · Cited by 10
The limits of commodification arguments: Framing, motivation crowding, and shared valuations
Gold, N. (2019) · Politics Philosophy & Economics · doi:10.1177/1470594x19825494 · Cited by 12
The value of rational analysis: An assessment of causal reasoning and learning
Fernbach, S. S. A., & Philip, M. C. (2008) · Cited by 10
Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants
Henrion, M., & Fischhoff, B. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.039 · Cited by 10
Self-citationSensitivity Analysis in Systems for Planning and Decision Support
Sage, A. P. (1981) · Journal of the Franklin Institute · doi:10.1016/0016-0032(81)90064-8 · Cited by 10
Koch, C., & Wustemann, J. (2009) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1032961 · Cited by 7
DECISION‐MAKING MODELS, DECISION SUPPORT, AND PROBLEM SOLVING
Lehto, M. R., Nanda, G., & Nanda, G. (2021) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119636113.ch6 · Cited by 11
One Too Many? Understanding the Influence of Risk Factor Quantity on Perceptions of Risk
Dawson, I. G. J., JOHNSON, J. E. V., & Luke, M. A. (2016) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.12690 · Cited by 9
Krische, S. D., Sanders, P. R., & Smith, S. D. (2013) · Behavioral Research in Accounting · doi:10.2308/bria-50633 · Cited by 9
Financial analysis and strategic management
Duhaime, I. M., & Thomas, H. (1983) · Journal of Economics and Business · doi:10.1016/0148-6195(83)90021-8 · Cited by 9
The Impact of Judgmental Biases on the Validation of Simulation Models
Irvine, S. R., Levary, R. R., & McCoy, M. S. (1998) · Simulation & Gaming · doi:10.1177/1046878198292002 · Cited by 9
Aiding Lay Decision Making Using a Cognitive Competencies Approach
Maule, A. J., & Maule, S. (2016) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01884 · Cited by 9
The Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday Inductive Reasoning
Nisbett, R. E., Krantz, D. H., Jepson, C., & Kunda, Z. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.030 · Cited by 9
Risikoverhalten bei Aktiengeschäften
Florack, A., & Zoabi, H. (2003) · Zeitschrift für Sozialpsychologie · doi:10.1024//0044-3514.34.2.65 · Cited by 9
Conditional Versus Joint Probability Assessments
Moskowitz, H., & Wallenius, J. (1984) · INFOR Information Systems and Operational Research · doi:10.1080/03155986.1984.11731919 · Cited by 9
Volatility Inadaptability: Investors Care About Risk, But Can't Cope with VolatilityPreprint
Ehm, C., Laudenbach, C., & Weber, M. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1942440 · Cited by 10
Information Pursuit in Financial-Statement Analysis: Effects of Choice, Effort, and DisaggregationPreprint
Nelson, M. W., & Tayler, W. B. (2006) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.873351 · Cited by 9
Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment BiasesPreprint
Benjamin, D. J. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3293360 · Cited by 13
Introduction to Risk Psychology
López‐Vázquez, E., & Marván, M. L. (2018) · The anthropocene: Politik - economics - society - science · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-73799-7_1 · Cited by 10
The Influence of Initial Beliefs on Judgments of Probability
Yu, E. C., & Lagnado, D. A. (2012) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2012.00381 · Cited by 9
Some characterizations of (strongly) subadditive discounting functions
Rambaud, S. C., & Torrecillas, M. J. M. (2014) · Applied Mathematics and Computation · doi:10.1016/j.amc.2014.05.095 · Cited by 8
Yen, A. C. (2012) · Behavioral Research in Accounting · doi:10.2308/bria-50155 · Cited by 8
Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability
Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.027 · Cited by 8
Diseño y validación de un cuestionario de propensión al accidente deportivo (PAD-22)
Román, P. Á. L., & Vallejo, A. P. (2013) · Cuadernos de Psicología del Deporte · doi:10.4321/s1578-84232013000100006 · Cited by 8
Behavioural decision theory and it's implication for knowledge engineering
Lehner, P. E., & Adelman, L. (1990) · The Knowledge Engineering Review · doi:10.1017/s0269888900005208 · Cited by 8
Fraser, J., Strohm, P. L., Smith, J. W., Svirbely, J. R., Rudmann, S. V., Miller, T. E., Blazina, J., Kennedy, M. S., & Smith, P. J. (2003) · Conference proceedings/Conference proceedings - IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics · doi:10.1109/icsmc.1989.71478 · Cited by 8
Limitations in Decision Making and System Performance
Santamarina, J. C., & Chameau, J. L. (1989) · Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities · doi:10.1061/(asce)0887-3828(1989)3:2(78 · Cited by 8
Econophysics and individual choice
Bordley, R. F. (2005) · Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2005.03.016 · Cited by 7
Boardman, F. (2026) · Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick) · doi:10.82444/warw.33494074 · Cited by 8
HUMAN JUDGMENT AND IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES
Smithson, M. J. (1997) · Cited by 8
A Bird's‐Eye View of the History of Judgment and Decision Making
Keren, G. B., & Wu, G. (2015) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781118468333.ch1 · Cited by 11
Brito, M. P., & Dawson, I. G. J. (2020) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.13539 · Cited by 7
Fragmentation in the European Monetary Union: Is it really over?
Candelon, B., Luisi, A., & Roccazzella, F. (2021) · Journal of International Money and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102545 · Cited by 7
Tetlock, P. E. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.034 · Cited by 7
Dynamic Modelling of Safety Management
Hale, A., Bellamy, L. J., Guldenmund, F. W., Heming, B. H. J., & Kirwan, B. (1997) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-008042835-2/50007-2 · Cited by 7
Cannabis, Decision‐Making, and Online Assistance Seeking
Evans, M., Ogeil, R. P., & Phillips, J. G. (2019) · American Journal on Addictions · doi:10.1111/ajad.12960 · Cited by 7
Román, P. Á. L., & Vallejo, A. P. (2015) · Retos · doi:10.47197/retos.v0i21.34599 · Cited by 6
An Overview of the Field of Political Psychology
Iyengar, S. (1993) · Duke University Press eBooks · doi:10.1215/9780822396697-002 · Cited by 8
Decision Making in Presidential Primaries
Popkin, S. L. (1993) · Duke University Press eBooks · doi:10.1215/9780822396697-017 · Cited by 8
Toward a Concept of Risk for Effective Military Decision Making
Mandel, D. R. (2007) · Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) · Cited by 7
RISK ANALYSIS: IMPORTANT NEW TOOL FOR BUSINESS PLANNING
Hertz, D., & Thomas, H. (1983) · Journal of Business Strategy · doi:10.1108/eb038974 · Cited by 7
Disclosure to a Credulous Audience: The Role of Limited AttentionPreprint
Hirshleifer, D. A., Lim, S. S., & Teoh, S. H. (2002) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.344160 · Cited by 7
Jin, J., Xu, S., & Gao, B. (2025) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108855 · Cited by 6
Interactive and revisable decision-support: doing more harm than good?
Shaikh, S. E. (2020) · Behaviour and Information Technology · doi:10.1080/0144929x.2020.1837242 · Cited by 6
Halevy, N., Maoz, I., Vani, P., & Reit, E. S. (2021) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/09567976211026982 · Cited by 6
Nowhere else to go: Help seeking online and maladaptive decisional styles
Kim, J., Phillips, J. G., & Ogeil, R. P. (2021) · Computers in Human Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.chb.2021.107103 · Cited by 7
Haselhuhn, M. P. (2014) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.1823 · Cited by 6
Evaluating voluntary risks of injury
Fischhoff, B., Furby, L., & Gregory, R. (1987) · Accident Analysis & Prevention · doi:10.1016/0001-4575(87)90017-0 · Cited by 6
Self-citationA varying coefficient approach to estimating hedonic housing price functions and their quantiles
Wan, A. T. K., Xie, S., & Zhou, Y. (2016) · Journal of Applied Statistics · doi:10.1080/02664763.2016.1238053 · Cited by 6
Research on Fault Diagnosis System of Crusher Based on BP Neural Network
Liancheng, M. A., Yong, Z., Lv, P., Cao, F., & Liu, Y. (2020) · Chinese Control and Decision Conference (CCDC) · doi:10.1109/ccdc49329.2020.9164698 · Cited by 6
Information and Electoral Attitudes
Ansolabehere, S. D., & Iyengar, S. (1993) · Duke University Press eBooks · doi:10.1215/9780822396697-015 · Cited by 5
Languages and designs for probability judgment
Shafer, G., & Tversky, A. (1985) · Cognitive Science · doi:10.1016/s0364-0213(85)80002-1 · Cited by 6
Lalwani, A. K. (2006) · Illinois Digital Environment for Access to Learning and Scholarship (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) · Cited by 6
Weighing Evidence: The Design and Comparison of Probability Thought Experiments.
Shafer, G. R., & Tversky, A. (1983) · Cited by 6
Determining Liability in Hindsight
Kamint, K. A., & Rachlinskit, J. J. (1995) · Cited by 6
Feldman, J. M., & Lindell, M. K. (1990) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-009-2514-4_4 · Cited by 7
A Prescriptive Approach to Eliciting Decision Information
Riabacke, M. (2012) · KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) · Cited by 6
Context-Based Maintenance and Repair Shop Suggestion for a Moving Vehicle
Thaduri, A., Galar, D. P., Kumar, U., & Verma, A. K. (2015) · Lecture notes in mechanical engineering · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-23597-4_6 · Cited by 5
Humans as intuitive classifiers
Erev, I., & Marx, A. (2023) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.1041737 · Cited by 6
Risky-Choice Framing Effects Result Partly From Mismatched Option Descriptions in Gains and Losses
DeKay, M. L., & Dou, S. (2024) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/09567976241249183 · Cited by 6
Human Resource Planning as a Strategic Function
Jha, J. K., & Singh, M. (2017) · International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences · doi:10.4018/ijsds.2017070106 · Cited by 5
DETECTING BAD DESIGN AND BIAS FROM PATENTS
Melluso, N., Pardelli, S., Fantoni, G., Chiarello, F., & Bonaccorsi, A. J. (2021) · Proceedings of the Design Society · doi:10.1017/pds.2021.117 · Cited by 5
Analysis of the factors affecting information search stopping behavior: A systematic review
Ilani, F., Nowkarizi, M., & Arastoopoor, S. (2023) · Journal of Librarianship and Information Science · doi:10.1177/09610006231157091 · Cited by 5
Kramm, J., Völker, C., & Verlag, C. (2023) · Campus Verlag eBooks · doi:10.12907/978-3-593-44902-9 · Cited by 8
Experimental tests of the salience theory: disaggregated income statements under two economic states
Guo, Y., & Zhou, J. (2016) · Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics · doi:10.1080/16081625.2016.1266269 · Cited by 5
Wheeler, P. R., & Jones, D. R. (2008) · Journal of Information Systems · doi:10.2308/jis.2008.22.1.1 · Cited by 5
The Sarbanes-Oxley Act: Legal Implications and Research Opportunities
Asare, S. K., Cunningham, L. A., & Wright, A. M. (2007) · Research in Accounting Regulation · doi:10.1016/s1052-0457(06)19004-9 · Cited by 5
Communicating uncertain experimental evidence.
Davis, A. L., & Fischhoff, B. (2013) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1037/a0033778 · Cited by 5
Self-citationConsumer Judgment from a Dual-Systems Perspective
Bond, S., Bettman, J. R., & Luce, M. F. (2009) · Emerald Group Publishing Limited eBooks · doi:10.1108/s1548-6435(2008)0000005005 · Cited by 5
Judging the Probability of Representative and Unrepresentative Unpackings
Hadjichristidis, C., Sloman, S. A., & Wisniewski, E. J. (2001) · eScholarship (California Digital Library) · Cited by 5
Redmill, F., & Consultancy, R. (2001) · Cited by 5
COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS: AN UNCERTAIN GUIDE TO PUBLIC POLICY*
Fischhoff, B. (1981) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.1981.tb20730.x · Cited by 5
Self-citationGilovich, T. D., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. J. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.001 · Cited by 5
Do medical decision analyses' largest gains grow from the smallest trees?
Politser, P. (1991) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.3960040211 · Cited by 5
GESTIÓN DE LA SEGURIDAD EN LAS ACTIVIDADES FÍSICO-DEPORTIVAS ESCOLARES
Román, P. Á. L., & Jiménez, M. I. P. (2012) · Dialnet (Universidad de la Rioja) · Cited by 4
Estimation of Revenue Loss due to Disturbances on Utilities in the Process Industry
Lindholm, A., Carlsson, H., & Johnsson, C. (2011) · Lund University Publications (Lund University) · Cited by 4
Nakayachi, K. (2017) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-017-3099-5 · Cited by 4
Focusing on what matters: Restructuring the presentation of Bayesian reasoning problems.
Talboy, A. N., & Schneider, S. L. (2018) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Applied · doi:10.1037/xap0000187 · Cited by 4
Decisional styles and online study activity: efficient, inefficient, misdirected or avoidant
Phillips, J. G., & Landhuis, C. E. (2021) · Behaviour and Information Technology · doi:10.1080/0144929x.2021.1912180 · Cited by 4
Is housing still the business cycle? Perhaps not.
Green, R. K. (2022) · Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · doi:10.4337/9781789908497.00018 · Cited by 5
Metadata
- Authors
- Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S.
- Venue
- Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
- Published
- 1978-05
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 330-344
- ISSN
- 0096-1523 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1277
- OpenAlex
- W2142405927
- Cited by
- 708
- References
- 12
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 26 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 24
- FWCI
- 16.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Experimental Psychology Human Perception & Performance (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality › Risk and Safety Analysis
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- fault trees, failure probability estimation, problem representation, risk perception, problem solving, expert opinion, risk analysis
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review