Cited by 710Risk and Safety AnalysisRisk Perception and ManagementDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics

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Fault trees: sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation

Fischhoff, Baruch, Slovic, Paul, Lichtenstein, Sarah·1978·Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance

DOI 10.1037/0096-1523.4.2.330

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Abstract

Abstract : Fault trees represent problem situations by organizing things that could go wrong into functional categories. Such trees are essential devices for analyzing and evaluating the fallibility of complex systems. They follow many different formats, sometimes by design, other times inadvertently. Major results were: people were quite insensitive to what had been left out of a fault tree, increasing the amount of detail for the tree as a whole or just for some of its branches produced small effects on perceptions, and the perceived importance of a particular branch was increased by presenting it in pieces (as two separate component branches). Aside from their relevance for the study of problem solving, such results may have important implications for how best to inform the public about technological risks and to involve it in policy decisions and how experts should perform fault-tree analyses of the risks from technological systems.

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Authors: Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S.
ORCID: Fischhoff, Baruch
Slovic, Paul
Venue: Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
Publisher: American Psychological Association (APA)
Published: 1978-05
Volume: 4
Issue: 2
Pages: 330-344
ISSN: 0096-1523 (ISSN-L)
1939-1277
DOI: 10.1037/0096-1523.4.2.330
OpenAlex: W2142405927
Cited by: 708
References: 12
Citations by year: 2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 26 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 24
FWCI: 16.06
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Journal of Experimental Psychology Human Perception & Performance (publishedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Engineering › Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality › Risk and Safety Analysis
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Keywords: fault trees, failure probability estimation, problem representation, risk perception, problem solving, expert opinion, risk analysis

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Fault trees: sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation

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