The DOI matches its Crossref record; 55 of the 56 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Decision making and learning while taking sequential risks.
Abstract
A sequential risk-taking paradigm used to identify real-world risk takers invokes both learning and decision processes. This article expands the paradigm to a larger class of tasks with different stochastic environments and different learning requirements. Generalizing a Bayesian sequential risk-taking model to the larger set of tasks clarifies the roles of learning and decision making during sequential risky choice. Results show that respondents adapt their learning processes and associated mental representations of the task to the stochastic environment. Furthermore, their Bayesian learning processes are shown to interfere with the paradigm's identification of risky drug use, whereas the decision-making process facilitates its diagnosticity. Theoretical implications of the results in terms of both understanding risk-taking behavior and improving risk-taking assessment methods are discussed.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Pleskac (2008) observed that the sequential nature of the BART implies a learning effect, which enables participants to determine the nonstationary probablistic nature of the task.”
From Risk taking and sensitivity to punishment in children with ADHD, ODD, ADHD+ODD, and controls (2011) · cites this paper as Pleskac 2008
In the citing paper
“It should also be noted that alternative BART outcome measures have been used by other researchers (e.g., Lejuez et al. 2003; Pleskac 2008) and our sample size prevented examination of potential sex or racial-ethnic differences.”
From Risk taking and sensitivity to punishment in children with ADHD, ODD, ADHD+ODD, and controls (2011) · cites this paper as Pleskac 2008
Citations
Cites
Estimating the Dimension of a Model
Schwarz, G. (1978) · The Annals of Statistics · doi:10.1214/aos/1176344136 · Cited by 47,033
Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1988) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511609220.014 · Cited by 32,720
A Simplex Method for Function Minimization
Nelder, J. A., & Mead, R. (1965) · The Computer Journal · doi:10.1093/comjnl/7.4.308 · Cited by 28,905
Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., & Rubin, D. B. (2003) · doi:10.1201/9780429258480 · Cited by 27,276
Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992) · Journal of Risk and Uncertainty · doi:10.1007/bf00122574 · Cited by 15,467
Statistical Methods for Psychology.
Gudgeon, A. C., & Howell, D. C. (1994) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D (The Statistician) · doi:10.2307/2348956 · Cited by 8,277
Monitoring the Future: National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings
Johnston, L. D., O’Malley, P. M., Bachman, J. G., & Schulenberg, J. E. (2003) · FOCUS The Journal of Lifelong Learning in Psychiatry · doi:10.1037/e560352009-001 · Cited by 6,930
Insensitivity to future consequences following damage to human prefrontal cortex
Bechara, A., Damasio, A. R., Damasio, H., & Anderson, S. W. (1994) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/0010-0277(94)90018-3 · Cited by 6,128
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
Gigerenzer, G., & Todd, P. M. (1999) · Cited by 3,563
Leave, C., Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., & Johnson, E. J. (1994) · Journal of the Operational Research Society · doi:10.2307/2584298 · Cited by 3,318
A domain‐specific risk‐attitude scale: measuring risk perceptions and risk behaviors
Weber, E. U., Blais, A., & Betz, N. E. (2002) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.414 · Cited by 2,936
Bayesian Data Analysis, 2nd edn
Brix, A. (2005) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2004.00347_4.x · Cited by 2,588
Comparing correlated correlation coefficients
Meng, X.-L., Rosenthal, R., & Rubin, D. B. (1992) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.111.1.172 · Cited by 2,472
Thaler, R. H., & Johnson, E. J. (1990) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.36.6.643 · Cited by 2,352
Evaluation of a behavioral measure of risk taking: The balloon analogue risk task (BART)
Lejuez, C. W., Read, J. P., Kahler, C. W., Richards, J. B., Ramsey, S. E., Stuart, G. L., Strong, D. R., & Brown, R. A. (2002) · Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied · doi:10.1037/1076-898x.8.2.75 · Cited by 2,336
Decision field theory: A dynamic-cognitive approach to decision making in an uncertain environment.
Busemeyer, J. R., & Townsend, J. T. (1993) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.100.3.432 · Cited by 1,925
On the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function
Gonzalez, R., & Wu, G. (1999) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1006/cogp.1998.0710 · Cited by 1,396
Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice
Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U., & Erev, I. (2004) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00715.x · Cited by 1,225
PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTIONPreprint
al‐Nowaihi, A., & Dhami, S. (2005) · SSRN Electronic Journal · Cited by 1,077
Curvature of the Probability Weighting Function
Wu, G. Y., & Gonzalez, R. (1996) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.42.12.1676 · Cited by 1,021
Weighing risk and uncertainty.
Tversky, A., & Fox, C. R. (1995) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.102.2.269 · Cited by 995
Bayesian Model Selection and Model Averaging
Wasserman, L. (2000) · Journal of Mathematical Psychology · doi:10.1006/jmps.1999.1278 · Cited by 989
Babor, T. F. (1992) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1992.01820080007002 · Cited by 903
Weber, E. U., Shafir, S., & Blais, A.-R. (2004) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.111.2.430 · Cited by 742
Small feedback‐based decisions and their limited correspondence to description‐based decisions
Barron, G., & Erev, I. (2003) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.443 · Cited by 742
Experimental practices in economics: A challenge for psychologists?
Hertwig, R., & Ortmann, A. (2000) · PsycEXTRA Dataset · doi:10.1037/e683322011-032 · Cited by 670
Drug abusers show impaired performance in a laboratory test of decision making
Grant, S. (2000) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/s0028-3932(99)00158-x · Cited by 625
Lejuez, C. W., Aklin, W. M., Zvolensky, M. J., & Pedulla, C. M. (2003) · Journal of Adolescence · doi:10.1016/s0140-1971(03)00036-8 · Cited by 591
The balloon analogue risk task (BART) differentiates smokers and nonsmokers.
Lejuez, C. W., Aklin, W. M., Jones, H. A., Richards, J. B., Strong, D. R., Kahler, C. W., & Read, J. P. (2003) · Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology · doi:10.1037/1064-1297.11.1.26 · Cited by 523
Busemeyer, J. R., & Stout, J. C. (2002) · Psychological Assessment · doi:10.1037/1040-3590.14.3.253 · Cited by 493
On Adaptation, Maximization, and Reinforcement Learning Among Cognitive Strategies.
Erev, I., & Barron, G. (2005) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.112.4.912 · Cited by 481
A Belief-Based Account of Decision Under Uncertainty
Fox, C. R., & Tversky, A. (1998) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.44.7.879 · Cited by 400
Utility of Gains and Losses: Measurement-Theoretical and Experimental Approaches
Luce, R. D. (2000) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 396
How to fit a response time distribution
Zandt, T. V. (2000) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/bf03214357 · Cited by 335
Yechiam, E., Busemeyer, J. R., Stout, J. C., & Bechara, A. (2005) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2005.01646.x · Cited by 331
Domain Specificity in Experimental Measures and Participant Recruitment
Hanoch, Y., Johnson, J. G., & Wilke, A. (2006) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01702.x · Cited by 324
Evaluation of behavioral measures of risk taking propensity with inner city adolescents
Aklin, W. M., Lejuez, C. W., Zvolensky, M. J., Kahler, C. W., & Gwadz, M. (2005) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2003.12.007 · Cited by 320
March, J. G. (1996) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.103.2.309 · Cited by 307
Nonlinear Decision Weights in Choice Under Uncertainty
Wu, G., & Gonzalez, R. (1999) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.45.1.74 · Cited by 286
RISK-TAKING IN CHILDREN: AGE AND SEX DIFFERENCES
Slovic, P. (1966) · Child Development · doi:10.2307/1126437 · Cited by 280
Modeling Behavior in a Clinically Diagnostic Sequential Risk-Taking Task.
Wallsten, T. S., Pleskac, T. J., & Lejuez, C. W. (2005) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.112.4.862 · Cited by 247
Self-citationLejuez, C., Simmons, B. L., Aklin, W., Daughters, S., & Dvir, S. (2004) · Addictive Behaviours · doi:10.1016/j.addbeh.2004.02.035 · Cited by 189
Kunitz, S. J., & Gabriel, K. R. (2000) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195136159.003.0005 · Cited by 182
Adaptive learning and risk taking.
Denrell, J. C. (2007) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.114.1.177 · Cited by 180
A comparison of two response time models applied to perceptual matching
Zandt, T. V., Colonius, H., & Proctor, R. W. (2000) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/bf03212980 · Cited by 156
Cognitive modeling analysis of decision-making processes in cocaine abusers
Stout, J. C., Busemeyer, J. R., Lin, A., Grant, S. J., & Bonson, K. R. (2004) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/bf03196629 · Cited by 155
Differences in risk‐taking propensity across inner‐city adolescent ever‐ and never‐smokers
Lejuez, C. W., Aklin, W. M., Bornovalova, M. A., & Moolchan, E. T. (2005) · Nicotine & Tobacco Research · doi:10.1080/14622200412331328484 · Cited by 147
Making trade-offs: A probabilistic and context-sensitive model of choice behavior.
Gonzalez-Vallejo, C. C. (2002) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.109.1.137 · Cited by 121
A Risk-Taking “Set” in a Novel Task Among Adolescents With Serious Conduct and Substance Problems
Crowley, T. J., Raymond, K. M., Mikulich‐Gilbertson, S. K., Thompson, L. L., & Lejuez, C. W. (2006) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1097/01.chi.0000188893.60551.31 · Cited by 117
Psychological Processes Underlying Risky Decisions in Drug Abusers.
Stout, J. C., Rock, S. L., Campbell, M. C., Busemeyer, J. R., & Finn, P. (2005) · Psychology of Addictive Behaviors · doi:10.1037/0893-164x.19.2.148 · Cited by 110
Jones, H. A., & Lejuez, C. W. (2005) · Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology · doi:10.1037/1064-1297.13.3.259 · Cited by 92
Experimental economics and deception: A comment
Hey, J. D. (1998) · Journal of Economic Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0167-4870(98)00013-0 · Cited by 90
How to Keep Children Safe in Traffic: Find the Daredevils Early.
Hoffrage, U., Weber, A., Hertwig, R., & Chase, V. M. (2003) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Applied · doi:10.1037/1076-898x.9.4.249 · Cited by 75
The Influences of Birth Order, Family Size and Sex Differences on Risk‐taking Behaviour
JAMIESON, B. D. (1969) · British Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1111/j.2044-8260.1969.tb00578.x · Cited by 24
Evaluating cognitive sequential risk-taking models: Manipulations of the stochastic process
Pleskac, T. J. (2004) · University Libraries (University of Maryland) · Cited by 4
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 56 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Mindful Judgment and Decision Making
Weber, E. U., & Johnson, E. J. (2008) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.60.110707.163633 · Cited by 782
Figner, B., Mackinlay, R. J., Wilkening, F., & Weber, E. U. (2009) · Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition · doi:10.1037/a0014983 · Cited by 625
Mind the gap: bridging economic and naturalistic risk-taking with cognitive neuroscience
Schönberg, T., Fox, C. R., & Poldrack, R. A. (2010) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2010.10.002 · Cited by 342
Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research
Dreber, A., Pfeiffer, T., Almenberg, J., Isaksson, S., Wilson, B., Chen, Y., Nosek, B. A., & Johannesson, M. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1516179112 · Cited by 331
Lauriola, M., Panno, A., Levin, I. P., & Lejuez, C. W. (2013) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.1784 · Cited by 283
Metadata
- Authors
- Pleskac, T. J.
- Affiliations
- Indiana University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pleskac, Timothy J.
- ORCID
- Pleskac, Timothy J.
- Venue
- Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition
- Published
- 2008
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 167-185
- ISSN
- 0278-7393 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1285
- OpenAlex
- W1980195663
- Cited by
- 121
- References
- 56
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 7
- FWCI
- 2.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (R21-DA14699)
- National Institute of Mental Health (MH019879)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies
- Keywords
- decision making under risk, Bayesian learning, decision-making, mental representation, stochastic environments, risk-taking
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Association Learning, Bayes Theorem, Choice Behavior, Culture, Decision Making, Decision Theory, Female, Gambling, Humans, Individuality, Male, Pattern Recognition, Visual, Psychomotor Performance, Risk-Taking, Stochastic Processes, Health Behavior, Substance-Related Disorders
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
