Can a weight loss of one pound a week be achieved with a 3500-kcal deficit? Commentary on a commonly accepted rule
Open accessAbstract
Despite theoretical evidence that the model commonly referred to as the 3500-kcal rule grossly overestimates actual weight loss, widespread application of the 3500-kcal formula continues to appear in textbooks, on respected government- and health-related websites, and scientific research publications. Here we demonstrate the risk of applying the 3500-kcal rule even as a convenient estimate by comparing predicted against actual weight loss in seven weight loss experiments conducted in confinement under total supervision or objectively measured energy intake. We offer three newly developed, downloadable applications housed in Microsoft Excel and Java, which simulates a rigorously validated, dynamic model of weight change. The first two tools available at http://www.pbrc.edu/sswcp, provide a convenient alternative method for providing patients with projected weight loss/gain estimates in response to changes in dietary intake. The second tool, which can be downloaded from the URL http://www.pbrc.edu/mswcp, projects estimated weight loss simultaneously for multiple subjects. This tool was developed to inform weight change experimental design and analysis. While complex dynamic models may not be directly tractable, the newly developed tools offer the opportunity to deliver dynamic model predictions as a convenient and significantly more accurate alternative to the 3500-kcal rule.
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Effects on outcomes like energy intake are linearly extrapolated to weight change, despite energy balance being a dynamic, nonlinear system.
“Effects on outcomes like energy intake are linearly extrapolated to weight change (41), despite energy balance being a dynamic, nonlinear system (42).”
From Issues with data and analyses: Errors, underlying themes, and potential solutions (2018) · cites this paper as [42]
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“Using this rule to predict or quantify weight change is an oversimplification of energy balance, because it does not account for the fact that energy balance is a dynamic and adaptable system (10, 11).”
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Balstad, T. R., Bråtveit, M., Solheim, T. S., Koteng, L. H., Bye, A., Jakobsen, R. D., Schjødt-Osmo, B., Fjeldstad, S. H., Erichsen, M., Vagnildhaug, O. M., et al. (2024) · Current Opinion in Supportive and Palliative Care · doi:10.1097/spc.0000000000000709
Egan, A. M., Rayman, J. F., & Collins, A. L. (2024) · Journal of Nutritional Science · doi:10.1017/jns.2024.85
“Thus, a 500-kcal deficit per day does not directly translate into 1 lb (0.5 kg) weight loss as traditionally assumed, resulting in less-than-predicted weight loss (10,11) .”
InfluentialSchubert, M. M., & Broom, D. R. (2026) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-03228-7_121
A conceptual framework integrating mechanisms linking nut consumption and energy balance
Cassettari, T., Starck, C. S., Beckett, E., & Fayet‐Moore, F. (2026) · Frontiers in Nutrition · doi:10.3389/fnut.2026.1834816
“However, it has since been challenged by contemporary models of energy balance, which account for dynamic physiological adaptations (26, 27).”
Weight Loss Plateau: Reasons, Challenges, and Solutions: A Narrative Review
Ashtary‐Larky, D., & Mohammadi, S. (2026) · Health Science Reports · doi:10.1002/hsr2.72803
“However, contemporary understanding reveals that the simplistic calculations used in such WL guidelines are flawed because WL does not occur in a linear manner [23, 24].”
Dorling, J. L., Apolzan, J. W., Thomas, D. M., Höchsmann, C., Johannsen, N. M., Ross, R., Church, T., & Martin, C. K. (2026) · European Journal of Applied Physiology · doi:10.1007/s00421-026-06405-4
Self-citation
- Authors
- Thomas, D. M., Martin, C. K., Lettieri, S., Bredlau, C., Kaiser, K., Church, T., Bouchard, C., & Heymsfield, S. B.
- Affiliations
- Montclair State University (US)
- Pennington Biomedical Research Center (US)
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- University of Alabama at Birmingham (US)
- Corresponding author
- Thomas, D M
- Venue
- International Journal of Obesity
- Published
- 2013-04-08
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1611-1613
- ISSN
- 0307-0565 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-5497
- PMC
- PMC4024447
- OpenAlex
- W2022985359
- Cited by
- 70
- References
- 24
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 7.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- International Journal of Obesity (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health
- National Institute on Aging (U01AG020478, U01-AG20478)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01HL102166, HL 45670, HL102166, R01HL045670)
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (R15DK090739, R01DK089051, K01DK062018, DK089051, P30DK072476)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Endocrine and Autonomic Systems › Regulation of Appetite and Obesity
- Health Sciences › Nursing › Nutrition and Dietetics › Nutrition, Health and Food Behavior
- Keywords
- weight loss, negative energy balance, energy balance, energy intake, weight loss prediction, weight gain
- MeSH terms
- Algorithms, Energy Intake, Diet, Reducing, Energy Metabolism, Female, Goals, Humans, Male, Weight Loss, Information Dissemination
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