Cited by 809Neural and Behavioral Psychology StudiesMemory and Neural MechanismsNeural dynamics and brain function

Neural correlates, computation and behavioural impact of decision confidence

Open access
Kepecs, Adam, Uchida, Naoshige, Zariwala, Hatim A., Mainen, Zachary F.·2008·Nature

Abstract

Humans and other animals must often make decisions on the basis of imperfect evidence. Statisticians use measures such as P values to assign degrees of confidence to propositions, but little is known about how the brain computes confidence estimates about decisions. We explored this issue using behavioural analysis and neural recordings in rats in combination with computational modelling. Subjects were trained to perform an odour categorization task that allowed decision confidence to be manipulated by varying the distance of the test stimulus to the category boundary. To understand how confidence could be computed along with the choice itself, using standard models of decision-making, we defined a simple measure that quantified the quality of the evidence contributing to a particular decision. Here we show that the firing rates of many single neurons in the orbitofrontal cortex match closely to the predictions of confidence models and cannot be readily explained by alternative mechanisms, such as learning stimulus-outcome associations. Moreover, when tested using a delayed reward version of the task, we found that rats' willingness to wait for rewards increased with confidence, as predicted by the theoretical model. These results indicate that confidence estimates, previously suggested to require 'metacognition' and conscious awareness are available even in the rodent brain, can be computed with relatively simple operations, and can drive adaptive behaviour. We suggest that confidence estimation may be a fundamental and ubiquitous component of decision-making.

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  • A prominent proposal is that confidence is based on the distance between the measurement and the decision boundary, without any role for sensory uncertainty.

    “a prominent proposal is that confidence is based on the distance between the measurement and the decision boundary, without any role for sensory uncertainty [10, 11, 39].”
  • Neurons in rodent OFC show statistical signatures of confidence in an odor discrimination task.

    “In a seminal study, Kepecs and colleagues found that neurons in rodent OFC showed statistical signatures of confidence in an odor discrimination task (Kepecs et al. 2008).”

    From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Kepecs et al. 2008

  • Postdecisional firing rates of neurons in prefrontal cortex and dopaminergic midbrain covary with choice correctness before explicit feedback is given.

    “In animal models, postdecisional firing rates of neurons in prefrontal cortex and dopaminergic midbrain have also been shown to covary with choice correctness before explicit feedback is given (Kepecs et al. 2008, Middlebrooks & Sommer 2012, Tsujimoto et al. 2010).”

    From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Kepecs et al. 2008

  • Rats are preferred for behavioral, memory, and cognitive research due to their physiological similarities to humans and their high learning capacity.

    “Rats are preferred for behavioral, memory, and cognitive research due to their physiological similarities to humans and their high learning capacity [17–20].”
  • In contrast to the TPJ, the vmPFC and ventral striatum are routinely found to be involved in nonsocial types of decision making such as reward-seeking behavior, intertemporal decision making, risk taking, and purchasing behavior.

    “However, in contrast to the TPJ, these latter areas are routinely found to be involved in nonsocial types of decision making such as reward-seeking behavior, intertemporal decision making, risk taking, and purchasing behavior (Kable and Glimcher, 2007;Kepecs et al., 2008;Knutson et al., 2007;Kuhnen and Knutson, 2005;Padoa-Schioppa and Assad, 2006;Plassmann et al., 2007;Rangel and Hare, 2010;Samej”

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References 53 · Cited by 809

Authors
Kepecs, A., Uchida, N., Zariwala, H. A., & Mainen, Z. F.
Affiliations
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Allen Institute for Brain Science (US)
  • Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (US)
Corresponding author
Mainen, Zachary F.
Venue
Nature
Published
2008-08-10
Volume
455
Issue
7210
Pages
227-231
ISSN
  • 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-4687
OpenAlex
W2043608504
Cited by
809
References
53
Citations by year
2026: 32 · 2025: 49 · 2024: 36 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 60 · 2020: 58 · 2019: 49 · 2018: 52 · 2017: 62 · 2016: 58 · 2015: 52 · 2014: 63 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 49
FWCI
13.46
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Nature (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Institutional Repository (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (acceptedVersion)
  • Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
  • Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory and Neural Mechanisms
  • Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural dynamics and brain function
Keywords
decision confidence, metacognition, orbitofrontal cortex, perceptual decision making, task difficulty, confidence estimation, single-unit activity, delayed rewards, computational models of decision making, quality of evidence
MeSH terms
Animals, Behavior, Animal, Decision Making, Frontal Lobe, Male, Models, Neurological, Neurons, Odorants, Reward, Smell, Confidence Intervals, Linear Models, Rats, Long-Evans, Uncertainty, Rats

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