The DOI matches its Crossref record; 21 of the 23 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Advances in development reverse fertility declines
Abstract
During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positi…
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“With some evidence pointing to a reversal of fertility decline at high levels of development (Goldstein et al. 2009, Myrskylä et al. 2009, Fox et al. 2019), other work shows more inconsistent patterns (e.g., Myrskylä et al. 2013, Lesthaeghe 2020).”
From Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences (2024) · cites this paper as Myrskylä et al. 2009
In the citing paper
“Myrskylä, Kohler, and Billari (2009) show that declines in fertility tend to reverse as countries become highly developed”
From Division of domestic labour and lowest-low fertility in South Korea (2017) · cites this paper as Myrskylä, Kohler, and Billari (2009)
In the citing paper
“however, Korea is one of the exceptions in their study: Despite achieving high levels of development, it has yet to experience a rebound in fertility rates.”
From Division of domestic labour and lowest-low fertility in South Korea (2017) · cites this paper as Myrskylä, Kohler, and Billari (2009)
In the citing paper
“The authors suggest that gender inequality and the difficulty of combining work and family are plausible explanations for this anomaly.”
From Division of domestic labour and lowest-low fertility in South Korea (2017) · cites this paper as Myrskylä, Kohler, and Billari (2009)
Citations
Cites
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The United Nations Development Programme
Oestreich, J. E. (2017) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190637347.003.0003 · Cited by 4,875
The coming acceleration of global population ageing
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. C., & Scherbov, S. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06516 · Cited by 1,489
The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s
Kohler, H., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A. (2002) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00641.x · Cited by 1,451
Self-citationGender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition
McDonald, P. (2000) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2000.00427.x · Cited by 1,154
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Bongaarts, J., & WATKINS, S. C. (1996) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.2307/2137804 · Cited by 1,027
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Lee, R. D. (2003) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/089533003772034943 · Cited by 1,025
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Brewster, K. L., & Rindfuss, R. R. (2000) · Annual Review of Sociology · doi:10.1146/annurev.soc.26.1.271 · Cited by 902
On the quantum and tempo of fertility
Bongaarts, J., & Feeney, G. (1998) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.2307/2807974 · Cited by 684
The end of world population growth
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. C., & Scherbov, S. (2001) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35087589 · Cited by 643
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Suzuki, T. Lowest-low fertility in Korea and Japan. J. Popul. Probl. 59, 1–16 (2003)
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Bray, F., Jemal, A., Grey, N., Ferlay, J., & Forman, D. (2012) · The Lancet Oncology · doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(12)70211-5 · Cited by 2,225
Intended and Unintended Pregnancies Worldwide in 2012 and Recent Trends
Sedgh, G., Singh, S. D., & Hussain, R. (2014) · Studies in Family Planning · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4465.2014.00393.x · Cited by 1,050
Re‐theorizing Family Demographics
Esping‐Andersen, G., & Billari, F. C. (2015) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00024.x · Cited by 763
Self-citationThe second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development
Lesthaeghe, R. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1420441111 · Cited by 674
Balbo, N., Billari, F. C., & Mills, M. (2013) · European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie · doi:10.1007/s10680-012-9277-y · Cited by 623
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Myrskylä, M., Kohler, H.-P., & Billari, F. C.
- Affiliations
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Bocconi University (IT)
- Corresponding author
- Kohler, Hans-Peter
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2009-08
- Volume
- 460
- Issue
- 7256
- Pages
- 741-743
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2061303011
- Cited by
- 782
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 47 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 56 · 2020: 105 · 2019: 38 · 2018: 39 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 54 · 2015: 58 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 44 · 2012: 46
- FWCI
- 104.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- United Nations Development Programme
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- fertility decline, fertility reversal, Human Development Index, economic development, population aging, total fertility rate, below-replacement fertility, population decline, population growth, immigration, demographic transition
- MeSH terms
- Birth Rate, Cross-Sectional Studies, Education, Female, Fertility, Humans, Income, Life Expectancy, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Maternal Age, Population Growth, Technology, Age Distribution, Developed Countries, Reproductive Behavior, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century
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