The DOI matches its Crossref record; 49 of the 50 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Little change in global drought over the past 60 years
Abstract
Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Two recent studies published in Nature Climate Change 25 and Nature 26 came to opposing conclusions about whether there are noticeable changes in drought trends as a result of climate change.”
From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [26]
Citations
Cites
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M. C., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H. L., & Chen, Z. (2007) · Cited by 23,398
An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate
Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948) · Geographical Review · doi:10.2307/210739 · Cited by 9,334
Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass
Penman, H. L. (1948) · Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A Mathematical and Physical Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspa.1948.0037 · Cited by 7,346
Huffman, G. J., Bolvin, D. T., Nelkin, E. J., Wolff, D. B., Adler, R. F., Gu, G., Hong, Y. E., Bowman, K. P., & Stocker, E. F. (2007) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm560.1 · Cited by 6,773
THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Shine, K. P. (1990) · Weather · doi:10.1002/j.1477-8696.1990.tb05660.x · Cited by 5,458
Jl, M. (1965) · PubMed · Cited by 5,033
Jansen, E. H., Overpeck, J. T., Briffa, K., Duplessy, J., Joos, F., Masson-Delmotte, Olago, D., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Rahmstorf, S., et al. (2007) · UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) · Cited by 4,577
Mitchell, T. D., & Jones, P. D. (2005) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1181 · Cited by 3,820
Drought under global warming: a review
Dai, A. (2011) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.81 · Cited by 3,523
Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009
Zhao, M., & Running, S. W. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1192666 · Cited by 2,738
Dai, A., Trenberth, K. E., & Qian, T. (2004) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-386.1 · Cited by 2,044
Maidment, D. R. (1993) · Cited by 1,995
Sheffield, J., Goteti, G., & Wood, E. F. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3790.1 · Cited by 1,951
Self-citation(2012) · State University of New York Press eBooks · doi:10.2307/jj.18376987.67 · Cited by 1,741
Development of a global evapotranspiration algorithm based on MODIS and global meteorology data
Mu, Q., Heinsch, F. A., Zhao, M., & Running, S. W. (2007) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2007.04.015 · Cited by 1,713
Svoboda, M. D., LeComte, D., Hayes, M., Heim, R. R., Gleason, K. L., Angel, J., Rippey, B., Tinker, R., Palecki, M., Stooksbury, D. E., et al. (2002) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/1520-0477-83.8.1181 · Cited by 1,318
Estimates of Freshwater Discharge from Continents: Latitudinal and Seasonal Variations
Dai, A., & Trenberth, K. E. (2002) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003 · Cited by 1,278
Sheffield, J., & Wood, E. F. (2007) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0340-z · Cited by 1,159
Self-citationCharacteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900–2008
Dai, A. (2011) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2010jd015541 · Cited by 1,070
D'Arrigo, R., Wilson, R., Liepert, B., & Cherubini, P. (2008) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.03.004 · Cited by 838
Regional evaporation estimates from flux tower and MODIS satellite data
Cleugh, H., Leuning, R., Mu, Q., & Running, S. W. (2006) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2006.07.007 · Cited by 790
Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe
Hirschi, M., Seneviratne, S. I., Alexandrov, V. A., Boberg, F., Boroneant, C., Christensen, O. B., Formayer, H., Orlowsky, B., & Štěpánek, P. (2010) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1032 · Cited by 762
On the attribution of changing pan evaporation
Roderick, M. L., Rotstayn, L. D., Farquhar, G. D., & Hobbins, M. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl031166 · Cited by 664
Self-citationDonohue, R. J., McVicar, T. R., & Roderick, M. L. (2010) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.020 · Cited by 491
Self-citationSheffield, J., & Wood, E. F. (2007) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2006jd008288 · Cited by 407
Self-citationChanges in Australian pan evaporation from 1970 to 2002
Roderick, M. L., & Farquhar, G. D. (2004) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1061 · Cited by 366
Self-citationConsumptive Use of Water and Irrigation Water Requirements
Jensen, M. E. (1973) · Cited by 362
A Historical Perspective of U.S. Climate Divisions
Guttman, N. B., & Quayle, R. G. (1996) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077 · Cited by 302
van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., & Briffa, K. R. (2011) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2010jd015001 · Cited by 293
Wet and dry summers in Europe since 1750: evidence of increasing drought
Briffa, K. R., van der Schrier, G., & Jones, P. D. (2009) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1836 · Cited by 258
RECENT CHANGES IN FROST DAYS AND THE FROST-FREE SEASON IN THE UNITED STATES
Easterling, D. R. (2002) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/1520-0477-83.9.1327 · Cited by 216
Pan Evaporation Trends and the Terrestrial Water Balance. II. Energy Balance and Interpretation
Roderick, M. L., Hobbins, M., & Farquhar, G. D. (2009) · Geography Compass · doi:10.1111/j.1749-8198.2008.00214.x · Cited by 195
Self-citationRegional drought has a global impact
Sternberg, T. (2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/472169d · Cited by 151
Mu, M., Duan, W., & Wang, B. (2007) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006981 · Cited by 133
Cai, W., Cowan, T., Briggs, P., & Raupach, M. (2009) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl040334 · Cited by 122
Fang, K., Gou, X., Chen, F., Yang, M. Z., Li, J., He, M., Zhang, Y., Tian, Q., & Peng, J. (2008) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr00781 · Cited by 117
Milly, P. C. D., & Dunne, K. A. (2010) · Earth Interactions · doi:10.1175/2010ei363.1 · Cited by 108
Assessing temperature‐based PET equations under a changing climate in temperate, deciduous forests
Shaw, S. B., & Riha, S. J. (2010) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.7913 · Cited by 91
Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans
McCabe, G. J., & Palecki, M. A. (2006) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1289 · Cited by 62
Long-Term Regional Estimates of Evapotranspiration for Mexico Based on Downscaled ISCCP Data
Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., & Muñoz‐Arriola, F. (2009) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/2009jhm1176.1 · Cited by 58
Self-citationSummer moisture availability across North America
van der Schrier, G., Briffa, K. R., Osborn, T. J., & Cook, E. R. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006745 · Cited by 53
Grandpré, L. D., Tardif, J. C., Hessl, A., Pederson, N., Conciatori, F., Green, T. R., Byambasuren, O., & Nachin, B. (2011) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x11-051 · Cited by 50
On the recent warming in the Murray‐Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood
Lockart, N., Kavetski, D., & Franks, S. W. (2009) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl040598 · Cited by 46
Characteristics of the dry/wet trend over arid central Asia over the past 100 years
Wang, J., Chen, F., Jin, L., & Bai, H. (2010) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr00837 · Cited by 42
Blaney, H. F. (1951) · Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers · Cited by 18
Latif, M. (1999) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012
McHugh, M. (2004) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 50 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Gupta, S. K., Stackhouse, P. W., Cox, S. J., Mikovitz, J. C. & Zhang, T. Surface Radiation Budget Project completes 22-year data set. GEWEX News 16, 12–13 (2006)
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production
Lesk, C., Rowhani, P., & Ramankutty, N. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature16467 · Cited by 3,883
Global warming and changes in drought
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., & Sheffield, J. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2067 · Cited by 3,382
Self-citationAllen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., & McDowell, N. G. (2015) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es15-00203.1 · Cited by 2,679
“Globally, the impacts of drought or heat-related tree mortality are inherently limited because, overall, drought is relatively infrequent and localized, and there is evidence of little change in global drought since 1950 (Sheffield et al. 2012).”
BackgroundClimate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013
Jolly, W. M., Cochrane, M. A., Freeborn, P. H., Holden, Z. A., Brown, T. J., Williamson, G. J., & Bowman, D. M. J. S. (2015) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms8537 · Cited by 2,200
Beguería, S., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Reig, F., & Latorre, B. (2014) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3887 · Cited by 2,128
“Based on the PDSI, Dai (2011, 2013) and Van Der Schrier et al. (2011) reported that the specific formulation of the ET0 equation had little effect on the magnitude of global drought, but Sheffield et al. (2012) used the same index and found substantial differences based on different data.”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Metadata
- Authors
- Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., & Roderick, M. L.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Sheffield, Justin
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2012-11
- Volume
- 491
- Issue
- 7424
- Pages
- 435-438
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2015522309
- Cited by
- 1,978
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 97 · 2025: 126 · 2024: 131 · 2023: 162 · 2022: 188 · 2021: 196 · 2020: 174 · 2019: 159 · 2018: 160 · 2017: 139 · 2016: 144 · 2015: 121 · 2014: 110 · 2013: 66 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 79.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- global drought, Palmer Drought Severity Index, drought trends, potential evaporation, global warming, water cycle, drought indices, climate change impacts, water balance modeling
- MeSH terms
- Models, Theoretical, Temperature, Time Factors, Droughts, Global Warming
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
