Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage
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Disturbances from wind, bark beetles, and wildfires have increased in Europe's forests throughout the 20 th century 1. Climatic changes were identified as a main driver behind this increase 2, yet how the expected continuation of climate change will affect Europe's forest disturbance regime remains unresolved. Increasing disturbances could strongly impact the forest carbon budget 3,4, and are hypothesized to contribute to the recently observed carbon sink saturation in Europe's forests 5. Here we show that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase in the first decade of the 21 st century. Based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios we find that damage from wind, bark beetles, and forest fires is likely to increase further in coming decades, and estimate the rate of increase to +0.91·10 6 m 3 of timber per year until 2030. We show that this intensification can offset the effect of management strategies aiming to increase the forest carbon sink, and calculate the disturbance-related reduction of the carbon storage potential in Europe's forests to be 503.4 Tg C in 2021-2030. Our results highlight the considerable carbon cycle feedbacks of changing disturbance regimes, and underline that future forest policy and management will require a stronger focus on disturbance risk and resilience.
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Greater fire activity increases have been observed in regions and ecosystem types across the globe.
“Greater fire activity is not limited to the U.S., with increases observed in regions and ecosystem types across the globe (e.g., Cochrane et al., 2003; Fairman et al., 2015; Seidl et al., 2014).”
From Wildfire Induces Changes in Receiving Waters: A Review With Considerations for Water Quality Management (2022) · cites this paper as Seidl et al., 2014
Protection afforestation and reforestation may have larger uncertainties because it is more prone to exposure for longer periods to natural disturbances such as insects, diseases, wind, and fire, which are not included in this study.
“However, protection AR may have larger uncertainties because it is more prone to exposure for longer periods of time to natural disturbances such as insects, diseases, wind, and fire (45), which are not included in this study.”
From Climate-smart forestry through innovative wood products and commercial afforestation and reforestation on marginal land (2023) · cites this paper as [45]
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Self-citationOptimizing management to enhance multifunctionality in a boreal forest landscape
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Storm and fire disturbances in Europe: Distribution and trends
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Self-citationJakoby, O., Lischke, H., & Wermelinger, B. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14766 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions
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Self-citationThe influence of land abandonment on forest disturbance regimes: a global review
Mantero, G., Morresi, D., Marzano, R., Motta, R., Mladenoff, D. J., & Garbarino, M. (2020) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-020-01147-w · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Knutzen, F., Averbeck, P., Barrasso, C., Bouwer, L., Gardiner, B., Grünzweig, J., Hänel, S., Haustein, K., Johannessen, M. R., Kollet, S., et al. (2025) · Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe’s forests
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Increasing disturbance demands new policies to conserve intact forest
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Adapting forest management to climate change in Europe: Linking perceptions to adaptive responses
Sousa‐Silva, R., Verbist, B., Lomba, Â., Valent, P., Suškevičs, M., Picard, O., Hoogstra-Klein, M., Coșofreț, C., Bouriaud, L., Ponette, Q., et al. (2018) · Forest Policy and Economics · doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2018.01.004 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
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Self-citationRemote Sensing of Forest Burnt Area, Burn Severity, and Post-Fire Recovery: A Review
Kurbanov, E. A., Николаевич, В. О., Анатольевич, Л. С., Sha, J., Wang, J., Li, X., Cole, J., Дергунов, Д. М., & Wang, Y. (2022) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs14194714 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Responses of Temperate Forest Productivity to Insect and Pathogen Disturbances
Flower, C. E., & Gonzàlez‐Meler, M. A. (2015) · Annual Review of Plant Biology · doi:10.1146/annurev-arplant-043014-115540 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
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Thorn, S., Bässler, C., Svoboda, M., & Müller, J. C. (2016) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2016.06.006 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
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How do we best synergize climate mitigation actions to co‐benefit biodiversity?
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Tree species diversity mitigates disturbance impacts on the forest carbon cycle
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Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change
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Increasing canopy mortality affects the future demographic structure of Europe's forests
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Self-citationIs salvage logging effectively dampening bark beetle outbreaks and preserving forest carbon stocks?
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Self-citationDo bark beetle outbreaks amplify or dampen future bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe?
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Self-citationConcerns about reported harvests in European forests
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Self-citationHemiboreal forest: natural disturbances and the importance of ecosystem legacies to management
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Increasing spring temperatures favor oak seed production in temperate areas
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Methods for Mapping Forest Disturbance and Degradation from Optical Earth Observation Data: a Review
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A spatially explicit database of wind disturbances in European forests over the period 2000–2018
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The Influence of Tree Diversity on Natural Enemies—a Review of the “Enemies” Hypothesis in Forests
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Impacts of climate change scenarios on European ash tree (Fraxinus excelsior L.) in Turkey
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Climate-Smart Forestry: mitigation impacts in three European regions
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Self-citationPost-disturbance recovery of forest cover and tree height differ with management in Central Europe
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Natural disturbance regimes as a guide for sustainable forest management in Europe
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A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change
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Key ecological research questions for Central European forests
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Self-citationTropical Dry Forest Diversity, Climatic Response, and Resilience in a Changing Climate
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- Authors
- Seidl, R., Schelhaas, M.-J., Rammer, W., & Verkerk, P. J.
- Affiliations
- BOKU University (AT)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- European Forest Institute (FI)
- Corresponding author
- Seidl, Rupert
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2014-08-03
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 806-810
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- PMC
- PMC4340567
- OpenAlex
- W2063267306
- Cited by
- 1,224
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 97 · 2025: 112 · 2024: 145 · 2023: 114 · 2022: 128 · 2021: 148 · 2020: 113 · 2019: 88 · 2018: 86 · 2017: 73 · 2016: 60 · 2015: 53 · 2014: 6
- FWCI
- 52.57
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- erratum (2014-09-25)
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
- Keywords
- forest disturbance, forest carbon storage, wind damage, bark beetles, forest fires, climate change, climate change scenarios, forest management, forest resilience, European forests, carbon cycle feedbacks
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