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Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

Clark, Peter U., Shakun, Jeremy D., Marcott, Shaun A., Mix, Alan C., Eby, Michael, Kulp, Scott, Levermann, Anders, Milne, Glenn A., Pfister, Patrik L., Santer, Benjamin D., Schrag, Daniel P., Solomon, Susan, Stocker, Thomas F., Strauss, Benjamin H., Weaver, Andrew J., Winkelmann, Ricarda, Archer, David, Bard, Edouard, Goldner, Aaron, Lambeck, Kurt, Pierrehumbert, Raymond T., Plattner, Gian-Kasper·2016·Nature Climate Change

DOI 10.1038/nclimate2923

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Jeltsch‐Thömmes, A., Tran, G., Lienert, S., Keller, D. P., Oschlies, A., & Joos, F. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad4401 · Cited by 21
“For example, ocean deoxygenation and sea level rise continue for centuries to millennia after emissions stoppage (Clark et al 2016, Battaglia and Joos 2018, Oschlies 2021 Here, we apply ensembles of two Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity, the Bern3D-LPX and the University of Victoria…”
Method
Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming
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Shaw, T. A., Li, T., Ng, T., Cahill, N., Chua, S., Majewski, J., Nathan, Y., Garner, G. G., Kopp, R. E., Hanebuth, T. J. J., et al. (2023) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00868-5 · Cited by 14
Thermoelectric energy extraction in motion scenarios: Self-powered temperature and pressure detector in an automobile tire
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Can polycentric urban morphology improve transportation carbon emission efficiency? Evidence from 285 Chinese cities, 2005–2020
Deng, Z., Li, L., & Du, Y. (2024) · Transportation · doi:10.1007/s11116-024-10551-z · Cited by 14
“Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is critical for sustainable development (Clark et al. 2016 ; Tollefson 2021).”
A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt
Petrini, M., Scherrenberg, M. D. W., Muntjewerf, L., Vizcaíno, M., Sellevold, R., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., & Goelzer, H. (2025) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-19-63-2025 · Cited by 14
“…atmospheric (cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58) circulation (cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58)(cid:58) changes ,…”
Sea-level rise, marine storms and the resilience of Mediterranean coastal wetlands: lessons learned from the Ebro Delta
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Generational Portrait of Spanish Society in the Face of Climate Change. A Question to Consider for the Green Economy under the Well-Being Approach
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“In this connection, therefore, especially in the context of environmental policies, climate change is regarded as a synonym for global warming [12,13].”
Background
Evolutionary Economics
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Evolution of Global Ocean Tide Levels Since the Last Glacial Maximum
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“GMSL changes during a glacial cycle are on a scale of tens to hundreds of meters (Clark et al., 2016), while changes in tidal levels are expected only on a few-meter scale.”
Background
Phanerozoic orbital-scale glacio-eustatic variability
van der Meer, D. G., Stap, L. B., Scotese, C. R., Mills, B. J. W., Sluijs, A., & van Hinsbergen, D. J. J. (2025) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2025.119526 · Cited by 13
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“…that the extreme warming caused by anthropogenic emissions would result in a 8 significant melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets (Clark et al., 2016), not only 9 disrupting the freshwater balance in the polar oceans, but also greatly contributing to a global 10 rise in sea…”
Background
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Climate and Species Traits Drive Changes in Holocene Forest Composition Along an Elevation Gradient in Pacific Canada
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“The models, as well as available temperature, CO 2 and sea level reconstructions of past Mesozoic and Cenozoic warm climates, suggest that Earth’s climate may ultimately move towards unipolar conditions, with ice only remaining on Antarctica (Burke et al., 2018; Clark et al., 2016).”
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Background
Survival of the Greenest
van den Bergh, J. C. J. M. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108564922.014 · Cited by 12
The Future in Anthropocene Science
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“The future trajectory of the Earth system depends directly on what humans decide to do now (Clark et al., 2016; Steffen et al., 2018), and human decisions in the present are being influenced and guided by the scenarios and knowledge claims this field of inquiry is producing.”
Background
Prediction of the Potential Distribution and Conservation Strategies of the Endangered Plant Tapiscia sinensis
Liu, M., Li, X., Yang, L., Chen, K., Shama, Z., Jiang, X., Yang, J., Zhao, G., & Huang, Y. (2024) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f15091677 · Cited by 11
“Since the industrial revolution, human activities have been the main cause of the continuous increase in greenhouse gas concentrations [12], which, together with natural factors, influence Earth’s climate system [13].”
All roads lead to retreat: adapting to sea level rise using a trigger-based pathway
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“Eventually the response can no longer meaningfully be considered transient, and it will be more useful to consider the equilibrium sensitivity to warming and sea level commitment (Clark et al., 2016; Fox-Kemper et al., 2021); that is, how many meters can we ultimately expect for a given forcing? Here paleo records, ra…”
Background
Does Administrative Division Adjustment promote low-carbon city development? Empirical evidence from the “Revoke County to Urban District” in China
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The Age of Prediction
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Spatiotemporal Variation and Development Stage of CO2 Emissions of Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China
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Climate Change Through Earth's History
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The ultimate cost of carbon
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“…up to about 1000 years (Bala et al. 2005). iceMeltingTime Time scale for collapsing ice sheets, years Models find time scales of a few thousand years (Clark et al. 2016), but could be centuries (Hansen et al. 2016) dt2X The equilibrium climate sensitivity, degrees C per doubling of CO2 Range from…”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citation
Contribution of anthropogenic CO2 in China to global radiative forcing and its offset by the ecosystem during 2000–2015
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Transforming Fair Decision-Making about Sea-Level Rise in Cities: The Values and Beliefs of Residents in Botany Bay, Australia
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“Others predict that, with sustained release of greenhouse gases, SLR will continue beyond the twenty-first century (Clark et al., 2016).”
Background
Reviews and syntheses: Abrupt ocean biogeochemical change under human-made climatic forcing – warming, acidification, and deoxygenationPreprint
Heinze, C., Blenckner, T., Brown, P. J., Fröb, F., Morée, A. L., New, A. L., Nissen, C., Rynders, S., Seguro, I., Aksenov, Y., et al. (2023) · BGD · doi:10.5194/bg-2023-182 · Cited by 11

Authors: Clark, P. U., Shakun, J. D., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Eby, M., Kulp, S., Levermann, A., Milne, G. A., Pfister, P. L., Santer, B. D., Schrag, D. P., Solomon, S., Stocker, T. F., Strauss, B. H., Weaver, A. J., Winkelmann, R., Archer, D., Bard, E., Goldner, A., Lambeck, K., Pierrehumbert, R. T., & Plattner, G.-K.
Affiliations: Oregon State University (US)
Boston College (US)
University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
Simon Fraser University (CA)
Climate Central (US)
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
University of Ottawa (CA)
University of Bern (CH)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (US)
Harvard University (US)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
University of Victoria (CA)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
University of Chicago (US)
American Association For The Advancement of Science (US)
Australian National University (AU)
University of Oxford (GB)
Corresponding author: Clark, Peter U.
ORCID: Shakun, Jeremy D.
Marcott, Shaun A.
Mix, Alan C.
Kulp, Scott
Levermann, Anders
Milne, Glenn A.
Pfister, Patrik L.
Santer, Benjamin D.
Schrag, Daniel P.
Solomon, Susan
Stocker, Thomas F.
Strauss, Benjamin H.
Weaver, Andrew J.
Winkelmann, Ricarda
Archer, David
Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.
Plattner, Gian-Kasper
Venue: Nature Climate Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2016-02-08
Volume: 6
Issue: 4
Pages: 360-369
ISSN: 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2923
OpenAlex: W2253610007
Cited by: 646
References: 84
Citations by year: 2026: 25 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 58 · 2023: 61 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 86 · 2020: 98 · 2019: 70 · 2018: 91 · 2017: 36 · 2016: 26
FWCI: 45.32
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
HAL (submittedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Bern Open Repository and Information System (University of Bern) (submittedVersion)
publish.UP (University of Potsdam) (submittedVersion)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords: long-term climate change, sea-level change, anthropogenic climate change, climate policy, CO2 emissions, Holocene, deglaciation, climate change projections, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, civilization

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