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Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change
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“Nations that may have large ERW potential, including China, the United States and India, are all vulnerable to climate change and resultant sea-level rise 34 .”
From Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands (2020) · cites this paper as [34]
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InfluentialSelf-citationScience and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal
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“In addition, the end-of-century rate of sea-level rise for 1.5 ◦C is about 30 % lower than for a 2 ◦C pathway, indicating a substantially lower long-term sealevel rise commitment (Clark et al., 2016).”
BackgroundInfluentialPliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates
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BackgroundThe emergence and evolution of Earth System Science
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InfluentialSelf-citationYoung people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions
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“Third, flexible and incremental adaptation would be beneficial due to the long timescale of SLR (Clark et al., 2016; Nicholls et al., 2018).”
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Self-citationThe Risk of Termination Shock From Solar Geoengineering
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BackgroundTiming and causes of mid-Holocene mammoth extinction on St. Paul Island, Alaska
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“Our results suggest that as sea levels rise and hydroclimatic variability increases over the coming centuries due to anthropogenic warming (36), freshwater scarcity may become an increasingly critical limiting resource for island vertebrate populations.”
BackgroundSea-level rise impacts on the tides of the European Shelf
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“…not focused on projecting aspects of ecosystem services of importance to human well-being, such as useable land not inundated by sea-level rise (Clark et al., 2016), habitable temperatures (Schwingshackl et al., 2021), agricultural change (Müller et al., 2021), and availability of freshwater…”
BackgroundAssessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise
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BackgroundInfluentialGlobal warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
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“In addition, the end-of-century rate of SLR for 1.5 C is about 30% lower than for a 2 C pathway, indicating substantially lower long-term SLR (Clark et al., 2016).”
BackgroundInfluentialEvolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections
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BackgroundRising hazard of storm-surge flooding
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A unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change
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LongRunMIP: Motivation and Design for a Large Collection of Millennial-Length AOGCM Simulations
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Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data
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“The projected range of future GrIS mass loss across different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Vaughan & Comiso, 2014) shows strong overlap over the next several decades, but diverges substantially over the next several centuries (Aschwanden et al., 2019; Clark et al., 2016; Mengel et al., 2016).”
BackgroundLoss and damage implications of sea-level rise on Small Island Developing States
Martyr-Koller, R., Thomas, A., Schleussner, C., Nauels, A., & Lissner, T. (2021) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2021.05.001 · Cited by 130
Rasmussen, D., Bittermann, K., Buchanan, M., Kulp, S., Strauss, B., Kopp, R., & Oppenheimer, M. (2018) · Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) · Cited by 129
Self-citationA committed fourfold increase in ocean oxygen loss
Oschlies, A. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22584-4 · Cited by 136
Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements
Wang, S., Foster, A. C., Lenz, E. A., Kessler, J. D., Stroeve, J. C., Anderson, L. O., Turetsky, M. R., Betts, R., Zou, S., Liu, W., et al. (2023) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2021rg000757 · Cited by 145
(2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · Cited by 125
Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate
Otto, C., Willner, S. N., Wenz, L., Frieler, K., & Levermann, A. (2017) · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control · doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2017.08.001 · Cited by 124
Self-citationHead, M. J., Steffen, W., Fagerlind, D., Waters, C. N., Poirier, C., Syvitski, J., Zalasiewicz, J. A., Barnosky, A. D., Cearreta, A., Jeandel, C., et al. (2022) · Episodes · doi:10.18814/epiiugs/2021/021031 · Cited by 120
The Ends of the World: International Relations and the Anthropocene
Harrington, C. (2016) · Millennium Journal of International Studies · doi:10.1177/0305829816638745 · Cited by 130
Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections – the MAGICC sea level model v2.0
Nauels, A., Meinshausen, M. A., Mengel, M., Lorbacher, K., & Wigley, T. M. L. (2017) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017 · Cited by 127
Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?
Ritchie, J., & Dowlatabadi, H. (2017) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.08.083 · Cited by 122
Rasmussen, D. J., Bittermann, K., Buchanan, M. K., Kulp, S., Strauss, B., Kopp, R. E., & Oppenheimer, M. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaac87 · Cited by 152
“GMSL rise projections from a SESL model We generate estimates for GMSL for 2000–2200 using the SESL model from Kopp et al (2016a) and Bittermann et al (2017) driven with both GMST trajectories from CMIP5 models (figure 1) and GMST trajectories from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 (Meinshausen et al 2011a,…”
MethodResultInfluentialSelf-citationSea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward
Cozannet, G. L., Nicholls, R. J., Hinkel, J., Sweet, W., McInnes, K. L., van de Wal, R. S. W., Slangen, A. B. A., Lowe, J. A., & White, K. D. (2017) · Journal of Marine Science and Engineering · doi:10.3390/jmse5040049 · Cited by 114
“Before addressing the uncertainties, it is worth noting that even if climate change is mitigated to reach the Paris agreement objectives, sea level will continue rising for millennia [15], and that uncertainties remain about the speed of the process.”
Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas
Nicholls, R. J., Brown, S. A., Goodwin, P., Wahl, T., Lowe, J. A., Solan, M., Godbold, J. A., Haigh, I. D., Lincke, D., Hinkel, J., et al. (2018) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0448 · Cited by 124
“[70,71]), reinforced by widely reproduced media images [72].”
Background(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009325844.015 · Cited by 168
Formal subdivision of the Quaternary System/Period: Present status and future directions
Head, M. J. (2019) · Quaternary International · doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2019.05.018 · Cited by 116
Mapping the climate change challenge
Stéphane Hallegatte, A., Rogelj, J., Allen, M. R., Clarke, L., Edenhofer, O., Field, C. B., Friedlingstein, P., van Kesteren, L., Knutti, R., Mach, K. J., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3057 · Cited by 106
Self-citationIntegrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process
Nicholls, R. J., Hanson, S., Lowe, J. A., Slangen, A. B. A., Wahl, T., Hinkel, J., & Long, A. J. (2021) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.706 · Cited by 114
“Furthermore, as SLR has a long-term (geological scale) response to warming, 20th and 21st century temperature increases commit the Earth to rising sea levels for many centuries (Clark et al., 2016; Oppenheimer et al., 2019).”
BackgroundGreenland Ice Sheet: Higher Nonlinearity of Ice Flow Significantly Reduces Estimated Basal Motion
Bons, P. D., Kleiner, T., Llorens, M.-G., Prior, D. J., Sachau, T., Weikusat, I., & Jansen, D. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl078356 · Cited by 105
“A correct description of the ice flow law is therefore crucial to understand current ice transport rates and predict their possible future changes (Clark et al., 2016; Gillet-Chaulet et al., 2012; Graversen et al., 2011; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014; Ren et al., 2011).”
BackgroundMultiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
Barnard, P. L., Dugan, J. E., Page, H. M., Wood, N., Hart, J. F., Cayan, D. R., Erikson, L., Hubbard, D. M., Myers, M. R., Melack, J. M., et al. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-94942-7 · Cited by 121
Hayhoe, K., Wuebbles, D. J., Easterling, D. R., Fahey, D. W., Doherty, S. J., Kossin, J. P., Sweet, W., Vose, R. S., & Wehner, M. F. (2018) · doi:10.7930/nca4.2018.ch2 · Cited by 117
The Cretaceous world: plate tectonics, palaeogeography and palaeoclimate
Scotese, C. R., Vérard, C., Burgener, L., Elling, R. P., & Kocsis, Á. T. (2024) · Geological Society London Special Publications · doi:10.1144/sp544-2024-28 · Cited by 107
What can Palaeoclimate Modelling do for you?
Haywood, A. M., Valdes, P. J., Aze, T. L., Barlow, N., Burke, A. M., Dolan, A. M., von der Heydt, A. S., Hill, D. J., Jamieson, S. S. R., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., et al. (2019) · Earth Systems and Environment · doi:10.1007/s41748-019-00093-1 · Cited by 96
Strategies to Enhance Carbon Dioxide Capture in Metal‐Organic Frameworks
Piscopo, C. G., & Loebbecke, S. (2020) · ChemPlusChem · doi:10.1002/cplu.202000072 · Cited by 94
Abrupt CO 2 release to the atmosphere under glacial and early interglacial climate conditions
Nehrbass‐Ahles, C., Shin, J., Schmitt, J. H. M. M., Bereiter, B., Joos, F., Schilt, A., Schmidely, L., Silva, L., Teste, G., Grilli, R., et al. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aay8178 · Cited by 95
Self-citationMacDougall, A. H., & Knutti, R. (2016) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016 · Cited by 99
“Anthropogenic climate change will not cease in year 2100 (e.g. Clark et al., 2016) and the intrinsic timescale of decay of the passive component of the permafrost carbon pool implies that the permafrost carbon system will continue to evolve far into the future.”
BackgroundEffects of the polycentric spatial structures of Chinese city regions on CO2 concentrations
Sun, B., Han, S., & Wan, L. (2020) · Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.trd.2020.102333 · Cited by 89
Epochs, events and episodes: Marking the geological impact of humans
Waters, C. N., Williams, M., Zalasiewicz, J., Turner, S. D., Barnosky, A. D., Head, M. J., Wing, S. L., Wagreich, M., Steffen, W., Summerhayes, C. P., et al. (2022) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104171 · Cited by 94
“But, the diachronous nature of the LQE does not preclude the recognition of the Holocene as a chronostrati-graphic time unit distinct from the Pleistocene.”
InfluentialBrown, S. A., Nicholls, R. J., Lázár, A. N., Hornby, D. D., Hill, C., Hazra, S., Addo, K. A., Haque, A., Caesar, J., & Tompkins, E. L. (2018) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1311-0 · Cited by 86
“These unmitigated scenarios are lower than projections of multi-centennial or millennium sea-level change, such as Clark et al. (2016) who suggest 2–4 m per century.”
BackgroundRehman, A., Ma, H., Öztürk, İ., & Ahmad, M. I. (2021) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-021-15481-2 · Cited by 84
“Today, CO2 emission has been reached in recent decades (Clark et al. 2016; Anderson et al. 2016; Kweku et al. 2017; Rehman et al. 2021a).”
BackgroundMbatha, N., & Xulu, S. (2018) · Climate · doi:10.3390/cli6040095 · Cited by 84
“The influence of drought on vegetation varies in spatial and temporal scales, and these are projected to increase with climate change [6, 7].”
BackgroundThe 2019 Flooding of Venice and Its Implications for Future Predictions
Cavaleri, L., Bajo, M., Barbariol, F., Bastianini, M., Benetazzo, A., Bertotti, L., Chiggiato, J., Ferrarin, C., Trincardi, F., & Umgiesser, G. (2020) · Oceanography · doi:10.5670/oceanog.2020.105 · Cited by 82
Framework for High‐End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications
Stammer, D. B., van de Wal, R. S. W., Nicholls, R. J., Church, J. A., Cozannet, G. L., Lowe, J. A., Horton, B. P., White, K. D., Béhar, D., & Hinkel, J. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001163 · Cited by 78
“However, it needs to be recognized by (almost) all users that whatever the considered time frame, sea level will continue to rise well beyond the end of this time frame (Clark et al., 2016; Nicholls et al., 2018).”
BackgroundMeeting the looming policy challenge of sea-level change and human migration
Wrathall, D. J., Mueller, V., Clark, P. U., Bell, A. R., Oppenheimer, M., Hauer, M. E., Kulp, S., Gilmore, E., Adams, H., Kopp, R. E., et al. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0640-4 · Cited by 79
Self-citationA simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets
Levermann, A., & Winkelmann, R. (2016) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016 · Cited by 77
“The ice loss is likely to increase under unabated greenhouse gas emissions (Clark et al., 2016; Fettweis et al., 2013; Goelzer et al., 2012; Graversen et al., 2011; Harper et al., 2012; Huybrechts et al., 2011; Levermann et al., 2013; Nowicki et al., 2013; Price et al., 2011).”
BackgroundSelf-citationRohling, E. J., Foster, G. L., Gernon, T., Grant, K., Heslop, D., Hibbert, F., Roberts, A. P., & Yu, J. (2022) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2022rg000775 · Cited by 90
Dittmeyer, R., Klumpp, M., Kant, P., & Ozin, G. A. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09685-x · Cited by 76
Past Warmth and Its Impacts During the Holocene Thermal Maximum in Greenland
Axford, Y., de Vernal, A., & Osterberg, E. C. (2020) · Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences · doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-081420-063858 · Cited by 73
“If we do not limit future global warming, the ice sheet appears destined for eventual disappearance, with a consequent ∼7-m global sea level rise (Clark et al. 2016).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Clark, P. U., Shakun, J. D., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Eby, M., Kulp, S., Levermann, A., Milne, G. A., Pfister, P. L., Santer, B. D., Schrag, D. P., Solomon, S., Stocker, T. F., Strauss, B. H., Weaver, A. J., Winkelmann, R., Archer, D., Bard, E., Goldner, A., Lambeck, K., Pierrehumbert, R. T., & Plattner, G.-K.
- Affiliations
- Oregon State University (US)
- Boston College (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Simon Fraser University (CA)
- Climate Central (US)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
- University of Ottawa (CA)
- University of Bern (CH)
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- University of Victoria (CA)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Chicago (US)
- American Association For The Advancement of Science (US)
- Australian National University (AU)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Clark, Peter U.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2016-02-08
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 360-369
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2253610007
- Cited by
- 646
- References
- 84
- Citations by year
- 2026: 25 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 58 · 2023: 61 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 86 · 2020: 98 · 2019: 70 · 2018: 91 · 2017: 36 · 2016: 26
- FWCI
- 45.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Bern Open Repository and Information System (University of Bern) (submittedVersion)
- publish.UP (University of Potsdam) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- long-term climate change, sea-level change, anthropogenic climate change, climate policy, CO2 emissions, Holocene, deglaciation, climate change projections, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, civilization
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