Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

Fyfe, John C.; Meehl, Gerald A.; England, Matthew H.; Mann, Michael E.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Flato, Gregory M.; Hawkins, Ed; Gillett, Nathan P.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Swart, Neil C.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2938

Cited by 394Climate variability and modelsClimate Change and Environmental ImpactGeology and Paleoclimatology Research

Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

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Fyfe, John C., Meehl, Gerald A., England, Matthew H., Mann, Michael E., Santer, Benjamin D., Flato, Gregory M., Hawkins, Ed, Gillett, Nathan P. +3 more·2016·Nature Climate Change

DOI 10.1038/nclimate2938

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The 'global warming hiatus' refers to a decade (2000 to 2009) during which global mean SSTA changed less than in the previous or subsequent decade.
“The “global warming hiatus”47,48, is seen in Fig. 1e, referring to a decade (2000 to 2009) during which global mean SSTA changed less than in the previous or subsequent decade.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [48]
The Concluding remarks say that global mean surface temperature warmed more slowly in the early 21st century than in the previous few decades. But the Figure 1 caption starts the slowdown in 2001, and the paper discusses it through 2014; it does not define the hiatus as 2000–2009 or establish the claimed comparison with the subsequent decade in global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). (LLM, conf=0.87)
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Authors: Fyfe, J. C., Meehl, G. A., England, M. H., Mann, M. E., Santer, B. D., Flato, G. M., Hawkins, E., Gillett, N. P., Xie, S.-P., Kosaka, Y., & Swart, N. C.
Affiliations: Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
UNSW Sydney (AU)
Pennsylvania State University (US)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (US)
National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB)
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo (JP)
Corresponding author: Fyfe, John C.
ORCID: Fyfe, John C.
Meehl, Gerald A.
England, Matthew H.
Mann, Michael E.
Santer, Benjamin D.
Flato, Gregory M.
Hawkins, Ed
Gillett, Nathan P.
Xie, Shang-Ping
Kosaka, Yu
Swart, Neil C.
Venue: Nature Climate Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2016-02-24
Volume: 6
Issue: 3
Pages: 224-228
ISSN: 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2938
OpenAlex: W2285422781
Cited by: 394
References: 38
Citations by year: 2026: 5 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 36 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 49 · 2020: 51 · 2019: 43 · 2018: 44 · 2017: 61 · 2016: 39
FWCI: 46.23
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
centaur.reading.ac.uk
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation
U.S. Department of Energy (DEFC0297ER62402, FC02-97ER62402)
Natural Environment Research Council (ncas10009, NE/I020792/1, NE/N006054/1)
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (15H05466)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Keywords: global warming hiatus, global surface temperature, climate change skepticism, climate change evidence

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