Cited by 2,878Fire effects on ecosystemsPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsForest Insect Ecology and Management

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Forest disturbances under climate change

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Seidl, Rupert, Thom, Dominik, Kautz, Markus, Martin-Benito, Dario, Peltoniemi, Mikko, Vacchiano, Giorgio, Wild, Jan, Ascoli, Davide, Petr, Michal, Honkaniemi, Juha, Lexer, Manfred J., Trotsiuk, Volodymyr, Mairota, Paola, Svoboda, Miroslav, Fabrika, Marek, Nagel, Thomas A., Reyer, Christopher P. O.·2017·Nature Climate Change

DOI 10.1038/nclimate3303PMC PMC5572641

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Abstract

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

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Kilpeläinen, A., Gregow, H., Strandman, H., Kellomäki, S., Venäläinen, A. K., & Peltola, H. M. (2009) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9655-6 · Cited by 32
A High-Resolution Map of Emerald Ash Borer Invasion Risk for Southern Central Europe
Valenta, V., Moser, D., Kuttner, M., Peterseil, J., & Essl, F. (2015) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f6093075 · Cited by 30
The communication of physical science uncertainty in European National Adaptation Strategies
Lorenz, S., Dessai, S., Paavola, J., & Forster, P. M. D. F. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0809-1 · Cited by 29
Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests
Moore, J. R., & Watt, M. S. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12900 · Cited by 29
Disease ontogeny overshadows effects of climate and species interactions on population dynamics in a nonnative forest disease complex
Garnas, J. R., Houston, D. R., Ayres, M. P., & Evans, C. A. (2011) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.06938.x · Cited by 24
The uncertain impact of climate change on forest ecosystems – How qualitative modelling can guide future research for quantitative model development
Herr, A., Dambacher, J. M., Pinkard, E. A., Glen, M., Mohammed, C. L., & Wardlaw, T. J. (2015) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.023 · Cited by 20
Resistance of half-sib interior Douglas-fir families to Armillaria ostoyae in British Columbia following artificial inoculation
Cruickshank, M. G., Jaquish, B. C., & Nemec, A. F. L. (2010) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x09-184 · Cited by 15

Flagged first, then by citations

2 of the 101 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 1

IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

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Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world
McDowell, N. G., Allen, C. D., Anderson‐Teixeira, K. J., Aukema, B. H., Bond‐Lamberty, B., Chini, L. P., Clark, J. S., Dietze, M. C., Grossiord, C., Hanbury‐Brown, A. R., et al. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaz9463 · Cited by 1,412
Self-citation
Buildings as a global carbon sink
Churkina, G., Organschi, A., Reyer, C. P. O., Ruff, A., Vinke, K., Liu, Z., Reck, B. K., Graedel, T. E., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0462-4 · Cited by 1,045
Self-citation
Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests
Anderegg, W. R. L., Trugman, A. T., Badgley, G., Anderson, C. M., Bartuska, A., Ciais, P., Cullenward, D., Field, C. B., Freeman, J., Goetz, S. J., et al. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaz7005 · Cited by 854
Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change
Forzieri, G., Dakos, V., McDowell, N. G., Alkama, R., & Cescatti, A. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04959-9 · Cited by 875
Tamm Review: Influence of forest management activities on soil organic carbon stocks: A knowledge synthesis
Mayer, M., Prescott, C. E., Abaker, W. E. A., Augusto, L., Cécillon, L., Ferreira, G. W. D., James, J., Jandl, R., Katzensteiner, K., Laclau, J.-P., et al. (2020) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118127 · Cited by 748

See all 2,878

Authors: Seidl, R., Thom, D., Kautz, M., Martin-Benito, D., Peltoniemi, M., Vacchiano, G., Wild, J., Ascoli, D., Petr, M., Honkaniemi, J., Lexer, M. J., Trotsiuk, V., Mairota, P., Svoboda, M., Fabrika, M., Nagel, T. A., & Reyer, C. P. O.
Affiliations: BOKU University (AT)
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE)
Natural Resources Institute Finland (FI)
University of Turin (IT)
Czech Academy of Sciences (CZ)
University of Naples Federico II (IT)
Forestry Commission England (GB)
Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ)
University of Bari Aldo Moro (IT)
Technická univerzita vo Zvolene (SK)
University of Ljubljana (SI)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
Corresponding author: Seidl, Rupert
ORCID: Seidl, Rupert
Thom, Dominik
Kautz, Markus
Martin-Benito, Dario
Peltoniemi, Mikko
Vacchiano, Giorgio
Wild, Jan
Ascoli, Davide
Petr, Michal
Honkaniemi, Juha
Lexer, Manfred J.
Trotsiuk, Volodymyr
Mairota, Paola
Svoboda, Miroslav
Fabrika, Marek
Nagel, Thomas A.
Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Venue: Nature Climate Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2017-05-31
Volume: 7
Issue: 6
Pages: 395-402
ISSN: 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3303
PMC: PMC5572641
OpenAlex: W2618708155
Cited by: 2,878
References: 101
Citations by year: 2026: 459 · 2025: 410 · 2024: 380 · 2023: 379 · 2022: 335 · 2021: 350 · 2020: 281 · 2019: 174 · 2018: 88 · 2017: 21
FWCI: 106.91
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca (Universita Degli Studi Di Milano) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
ASEP (submittedVersion, public-domain)
DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
Jukuri (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)) (submittedVersion)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
CINECA IRIS Institutional Research Information System (University of Bari Aldo Moro) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders: Grantová Agentura České Republiky (RVO 67,985,939)
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1201A1)
Austrian Science Fund
Akademie Věd České Republiky (RVO [67985939], 67985939)
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/M008541/1)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Forest Insect Ecology and Management
Keywords: forest disturbance, climate change, forest fires, drought, wind disturbance, forest insects, forest pathogens, disturbance interactions, feedback, coniferous forest, boreal forest, vegetation change, disturbance sensitivity

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